The Parable of the new clock

A deep throat mole in a mid level government bureaucracy clipped these emails for me.

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From: MD
To: All staff
Subject: Timekeeping
Date 01/04/07

As you are all aware the productivity project has now been completed. One of the key things that was identified was timekeeping. We as an organisation are based over many sites with workers who work 7 days a week, 24 hours a day.

It is important to know to the second what the time is, over the years an adhoc system of clocks and personal watches has been built up. However, there is no standard time, the time in head office can be five minutes faster then Glasgow time.

It was also identified that no one took responsibility for managing the time or upkeep of the time systems or where management did occur it was sporadic or labour intensive.

Therefore the management team have introduced clock 2.0 together with time 1.5 to the organisation which will centralise all clock and time management systems. This will roll out over the next couple of months. Every office will have one standardised clock powered by the mains and synchronised with the main head office clock. This £ 5 million project will pay for itself in two years from business process improvements.

Further project updates will follow in due course.

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From: Project Clock Team
To: All Staff
Subject: Clock teething problems
Date 02/04/07

There have been some minor problems with the new clock system. In some offices clocks are showing 9.10 am when it is 9.00 am and alternatively 4 pm when it is 5 pm. Managers have been penalising staff for turning up late or going home earlier. Engineers are working on the problem, however for now please ignore the clock system if it does not agree with your personal time keeping system.

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From: Project Clock Team
To: All Staff
Subject: Clock project now fully live
Date: 03/04/07

The Clocks have now been rolled out to the entire organisation. All staff should now be using the clock system. Please note the clock works in 15 minutes units so now 1 am is now 4 clock units. All old time forms should now be returned to your local administration team. All time recording should now use the new 15 minute unit reporting system.

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From: Head of Resources
To: All Managers; Finance staff
Subject: Watches
Date: 30/04/07

I have noticed that expenditure for new office clocks and expense claims for watches have now increased. With the state of the art clock system neither expenses can be justified.

Such claims will no longer be paid by the Finance department.

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From:MD
To: All Staff
Subject: Clock system failures
Date: 02/05/07

It has become apparent that we are now running two parallel time keeping systems, the old paper based system and the new clock system.

I have ordered an immediate suspension of the clock system while the entire project is reviewed. A project review team has been set up and will submit it's report shortly.

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From: MD
To: All staff
Subject: New clock system
Date 10/05/07

We have decided to simplify all clock and time keeping systems devolving ownership to local departments. New clocks will be available from your local stores from next week.New paper forms using hour units will be sent out shortly.

This £1 million project will pay for itself in six months.

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Of course the majority of organisations will never move beyond the parallel old and new system. The one thing that you need to do when implementing new processes and systems is make sure they are fit for purpose. Make sure you are not implementing something just because it is a new idea.

If the idea has been implemented before take time to find out what happened last time, don't be pompous enough to think that the implementation team just didn't do it right last time .

BBC confirms zephyrist right - election unlikely in winter.

I wrote my article before I saw this one on the BBC site. It pretty much confirms what I was saying about holding elections in mid winter.

Yeah me!

UK General Election May 2008

"Mr Brown, who did not mention any election in his speech, has so far refused to rule out an autumn poll."
-BBC online article

Well actually the chances of actually having a November election are the chances of me winning the lottery on Saturday, pretty slim.

Since 1802 (UK established 1801) there have been 53 general elections with a total of 6 being held in November, 1806, 1812, 1852, 1922, 1935. The last autumn election was in October 1974, since then the last 7 elections have all been held between April and June.

In recent times it would seem that a spring / early summer date is preferred. One of the reasons behind this is simply electorate turn out. In the winter people stay indoors so numbers are down and whichever party you are in, voters count. Especially for a party, usually for the party in power, whose voters may be a bit indifferent to voting if it is cold . After all if you want to remove a party from power you are more likely to go out and vote whatever the weather. So the sitting government has a numbers disadvantage which could cost them the election.

However weather aside, why else wont we have an election this autumn? Well Tony Blair has just left, we don't really know what Gordon Brown is all about. Gordon may be worried that the electorate might think that a change in party would be as good as a change in leader.

The cards that Gordon is keeping close to his chest is that he already knows the date of the election, it is going to be next May. Just long enough for us to find out what he is about, for him to run a campaign which says this change is only just the beginning, vote for Gordon for more of the same.

Tony Blair is nicely in the past but not too far in the past that Gordon wont be able to blame mistakes on him. The Iraq war, that was Tony possibly right at the time but in the future I will change things. NHS Problems, that was Tony too, but I have made a start so keep me for a better future.

The difference between November and May is that in May Gordon will be a prime minister with lots of new ideas which he is starting to implement and which have not had time to go wrong.

The Tories in November will be the voice of change but in May will once again be the opposition with no hope and a big case of sour grapes.

Of course Gordon wont tell us that the election is in May because that would start the general election campaign and what harm is there in speculating about when a general election might be.The government might learn some useful polling information for free and change some policies to improve their ranking.

The media love it even they know there is no chance of an autumn election but it gets everyone talking about who is and who isn't electable. After all if they couldn't talk about a potential general election they might actually have to start trying to explain party conferences and actual politics to people.

Data Sources:
Election facts taken from United Kingdom general elections (wikipedia)

Oxford early one morning

There is a beautiful avenue of trees that leads up from the River Thames to the door of Christchurch College. I popped round one morning before I went to work, it was a lovely autumn day.

The James MacTaggart Memorial Lecture - Jeremy Paxman

I have a lot of respect for Jeremy Paxman, he is the no nonsense face of the media. So any speech in which he talks about the media is bound to contain fireworks.

Although his speech is mainly about the realities of television where everything has been carefully crafted and manipulated. This was in the wake of scandals of re-edited documentaries and the telephone phone in scandals which were not really competitions. Even now new fakery is being exposed, with Blue Peter again in the frame for rigging a contest to choose a pet's name.

"We should start with some acknowledgements, the first of which is that all television is artifice to some degree. Let’s not pretend it isn’t. Even the news: when we see a reporter in waders broadcasting live from a flooded street, do we honestly think the whole town is underwater, and with it the OB truck? Every time you stick a noddy into an interview, that’s artifice. Even the live television interview itself is artifice."

-Jeremy Paxman.

After all a tv camera can present a selected edited view of the world, you have no idea what is going on behind the camera man. The tv picture is framed to fit the story, flooding is needed for a flooding story, crime and graffiti is needed for a crime story etc etc.

"It doesn’t take a genius to recognise that what links all the scandals – what is the defining problem of contemporary television – is trust: can you believe what you see on television, does television treat people fairly, is it healthy for society?"

-Jeremy Paxman.

It is easy to identify that through all things we now have a mistrust of the media, I would say the media has bought it on themselves, they have taught us to trust no one so why should we trust the media.

Jeremy talks about 'mind-numbing literalism' where the media retreat too far into reality news rather than creative interviewing and news where they draw the story out. This balance between fact and fiction is a challenge when the 24 hr news cycle must draw on rumour, conjecture and opinion to create the story. Sometimes it gets it right and sometimes wrong and each media outlet must get judged on their accuracy in hind sight.

"...television is now encountering something which politicians have had to live with for years. The weather has changed. We no longer live in a time when trust was axiomatic. The crisis of confidence in television reflects the crisis of trust in politics: the old ‘we know best’ culture – in which producers affected a patrician concern to enlighten the poor dumb creatures who were their viewers won’t wash any longer."

-Jeremy Paxman.

This is a shift away from being a pupil to being a teacher. In modern society everyone feels capable of commenting on most things. TV news has adapted by bringing in opinion trying to represent the majority view. Media has to gain the trust of the viewer, in order to gain that trust they must confirm the viewers opinion. Different opinions will cause a switch to some other media outlet. The power now rests firmly with the viewer but where does that leave the truth?

"There are too many people in this industry whose answer to the question what is television for? is to say ‘to make money.’"

-Jeremy Paxman.

This goes back to Tony Blair's speech on 'impact', impact sells and therefore impact makes money.

"Instead of seeking to enlighten the audience, they set out to second-guess them. It won’t be long before we discover what politicians have discovered: if you spend your time telling people what you think they want to hear, pretty soon you lose their respect."

-Jeremy Paxman.

I agree with the first part that the media no longer seek to enlighten but confirm what the audience already knows. I am not as sure that the public will loose their respect, with politicians the media exposed the lies, who will expose the media lies. No one in the media seems to have the balls for the job, no one wants to put their head above the parapet and shout that the Emperor wears no trousers. The only hope we have at the moment is the interweb, citizen journalism offers the Paxman like interrogation of the established truth. However, the minute the small fry get big will they not become part of the same establishment that needs to make money.

"He [Tony Blair] went on to accuse us of using extravagant language: every problem’s a crisis, policies don’t run into difficulty, they end up in tatters. We see everything in black and white, and have given up separating fact from comment.

-Jeremy Paxman.

Impact, Impact, Impact, that is all the media wants so everything is a crisis with no grey area and hindsight is always used to blame someone especially if they can force a resignation.

"But I found the media’s response – and particularly the response of the television industry - to the Blair challenge pretty depressing. Hardly anyone engaged with the substance of the criticisms – of our triviality, our short-sightedness, our preoccupation with conflict. The immediate and almost universal reaction was not to examine the charge sheet, but to utter a blanket plea of ‘not guilty’, usually followed by well, you misled us about WMD, as if that somehow entitles us to say whatever we like. Well, it won’t do."

-Jeremy Paxman.

Even when faced with a direct attack and a challenge for an open discussion on the future of the industry the media ignores the argument claiming that such criticism comes from a tainted source. If the media polices the politicians who polices the media, such an important part of society surely cannot be allowed to self regulate.

Jeremy goes on to suggest that the media is too close to politicians and this stifles meaningful debate on issues. He quotes a recent example with prisoners were released early. The media responded by interviewing the minister and shadow minister, there was no debate with other interested parties, no discussion of the issues only an attempt to portray the government as incompetent.

"Are we instinctively oppositional? With the exception of honeymoons like the start of the Blair years, I think we are. Does it matter? Well, it would obviously be better if we always acted thoughtfully. But on the whole, I think the interests of democracy are better served than in a system where the media think it part of their duty to help the government get its way."

-Jeremy Paxman.

Again I am at odds with Jeremy although I have no objection to a media which plays devil's advocate against the incumbent government I do think it is the responsibility of the media to provide balance in its reporting. That means as well as criticising, challenging bad policy we must celebrate good policy and success.

"What no-one ever says when covering these stories is that rationing is the inevitable consequence of the fact that people won’t pay more in taxes. Let none of us for a moment suggest the British people might be hypocritical or even thoughtless. No danger of that at GMTV. No danger, really, of it anywhere."

-Jeremy Paxman.

This example comes up every week, person with health condition cant get treatment on NHS, NHS says it is too expensive. As an individual they deserve it but when people consider the finite budget different people must take priorities. Yes this becomes a cold hearted statistical approach devoid of emotion but on what other basis can we determine who gets the funds. Do we expect a judge type person who considers whether the person deserves the treatment.

The same can be said about road safety, people have to die on a stretch of a road before new safety measures are put in. Although no one like the concept there is a priority list of improvement based on causalities per mile. Although there is never an acceptable level of deaths with a finite budget there has to be.

The media never really tell this story, they portray managers of uncaring automatons incapable of emotion. Manager will not defend themselves by telling the truth above because that would confirm the view but the decisions still have to be taken each and every day.

"Would it not be a lot more sophisticated –and honest - to acknowledge sometimes that things may be more complicated than they appear?"

-Jeremy Paxman.

Thankfully this is what Channel 4 news and shows like Newsnight often do, but this is not representative of the more widespread media who value impact above all else.

"Overall, I have to say that I think standards of probity on television are pretty high. I believe most of what I see on television, and when, in the heat of the moment, things turn out to be wrong, I’m willing to give those responsible the benefit of the doubt: it’s not easy getting things clear in the early stages of any moving story."

-Jeremy Paxman.

I have mixed views, I think some television does the job very well but equally some news shows do it very badly. I cannot watch ITV news because of what I perceive as a low standard of the truth, I see ITV as comparable to a red top newspaper. News is complex and ITV just over simplify and sensationalise it. However the same news organisation produces the Channel 4 news so they are capable of producing quality news. Do they in fact just dumb down to the audience's level?

Jeremy does identify one of the key issues, with breaking news the media often get the story wrong and they should be careful of passing off speculation or opinion as fact. This has got a lot worse with 24 hour news, something needs to fill the gaps in between the facts coming in.

"But the problem is that all news programmes need to make noise. The need’s got worse, the more crowded the market’s become. We clamour for the viewers’ attention: “Don’t switch over. Watch us! You won’t be disappointed!”"

"God knows, just look at almost any regional news programme, with its tawdry catalogue of misfortune, recited in deadbeat vocabulary. You’d think that every child in the city was being sexually abused, every journey every day disrupted, resulting in ‘pure misery’, every teenager a drug-crazed psychopath. Does it alarm? Sure. Does it help us understand? You must be joking."

-Jeremy Paxman.

Jeremy wonders whether there is in fact enough news for 24 hour channels but points out that regional news could expand to fill any hole in the schedules. Is this news any good unless you are directly affected. Or does it just give you a jaded view of the world, a sort of modern day brainwashing with no cure?

"But in the very crowded world in which television lives, it won’t do to whisper, natter, cogitate or muse. You have to shout. The need is for constant sensation. The consequence is that reporting now prizes emotion over much else."

-Jeremy Paxman.

News has to have an image which provokes an emotional response to hook the viewer. They have to become emotionally involved in the story. Sometimes you will get a news reader says that some viewers will find the following pictures emotionally disturbing. Is this really a warning or just another way of saying keep watching. If the pictures are so disturbing do they need to show them.

"In this press of events there often isn’t the time to get out and find things out: you rely upon second-hand information – quotes from powerful vested interests, assessments from organisations which do the work we don’t have time for, even, god help us, press releases from public relations agencies. The consequence is that what follows isn’t analysis. It’s simply comment, because analysis takes time, and comment is free."

-Jeremy Paxman.

I feel some what vindicated as I have long maintained that the media have an over reliance of going to interested parties for comments without doing the leg work themselves. The first thing we should ask ourselves is what does the source get out of it? What bias are they bringing to the story. The warning to the media is don't pass comment off as fact.

"My point is that there comes a point where the frenzy has to be put to one side, the rolling story halted, so that we can make sense of things. Television journalism’s justification should be the justification of journalism through the ages: to inquire, to explain and to hold to account."

-Jeremy Paxman.

Spot on, the media like to keep the story rolling, they dont often review things. Jeremy is right about the justification of journalism, it job is "to inquire, to explain and to hold to account". This is what good journalism is about and it should be a fact of life not an aspiration in a speech about the future of the media.

"Despite the last few months, I do not believe that this uniquely powerful medium has been taken over by charlatans. But we ought to acknowledge that parts of it are in danger of losing their redeeming virtues. We need to be open. We need to admit when we make mistakes. We need treat our viewers with respect, to be frank with them about how and why programmes were made, to be transparent.

We need, in short, to rediscover a sense of purpose."

-Jeremy Paxman.

Final words from Jeremy, I agree I don't think journalists are inherent show men or gossip merchants, but they do need to take a look sometimes and ask themselves whether the story has value and what the truth actually means.

In this speech Jeremy suggests that the media had not addressed Tony Blair's criticisms of the modern media. Jeremy I think you went a long way to answer them and start an open intelligent debate on the role of the media in modern society.

Northern Rock final notes

The news cycle moves into its final phase. The Northern rock is now obviously safe, no one can be blamed in the government so the last two targets are the Bank of England and the fat cat bosses. At this stage the media are able to accuse people of knowing exactly what would happen and that they stood by and did nothing. Of course it is always easiest to criticise after the event.

Mr King, Bank Of England Governor has defended his actions by saying that to intervene earlier would have been to prop up bad loan decisions. I support him, to have done otherwise would have given a clear signal that a bank can take excessive risks without any consequences. If there were any problems the Bank of England would bail them out.

As for the fat cats they could have seen this coming but in order to build their business they took risks. There is nothing wrong with their business model but it does rely on a prosperous confident inter-bank loans market. When the loan market tightened Northern Rock entered marshy ground. There perhaps should have been an internal emergency plan to deal with the situation.

The one clear thing that has come out of this is what we need to do to stop a run on a bank. Deposits of the general public need to be protected to maintain the confidence in the financial system. The government is currently looking at plans to protect up to £100,000 of any deposit in a bank or building society.

If you have more money than that on deposit in any one bank you should consider spreading the money around and take further financial advice on how to minimise your risk exposure. Remember banks are businesses just like any other, they can go broke. These days because it is all electronic money they can go down fast. Don't put all your eggs in one basket the Bank of England wont always come riding to the rescue.

ZBB2 - Zero based bureaucracy

The business types among us may already know about ZBB - which is Zero based budgeting. The idea behind ZBB is that instead of adding a cost of inflation onto departmental budgets you outline your budget from scratch setting out what you want to do and costing it up. It can be a very intensive but thorough process. It makes managers really justify their budgets but only if the scrutiny board / panel remain objective otherwise it just becomes another traditional attempt at re-inventing the wheel.

Anyway as far as I am concerned that was ZBB version 1, now we move onto ZBB2 - which is zero based bureaucracy. Which instead of justifying budget you justify paperwork and processes.

Of course you start by scrapping everything (Are you scared yet- that includes those triplicate based forms where copies get sent to different departments). Step 2 if half of your organisation haven't just had multiple heart attacks is to rebuild it from the bottom up. Start with setting out what you want to do, then identify the information required to facilitate this and then finally the absolute minimal process from get to the start to the finish. So end, start and then middle.

Throughout this process it is important to be able to challenge the whole team:

WARM DREAD

• 'Why?' - If it cant be justified it gets binned.
• Ask the people that operates the procedures. This is not a management process, this is a worker process, managers should only facilitate.
• Risks - Take risks and turn your back on tradition. Triplicate copies are obsolete - if it is stored on computer it is much safer than storing on a paper file. Computer files are backed up, paper files are not. You don't know it wont work till you try it. To be human is to learn by our mistakes not compound them.
  
• Minimise - Always minimise the process.

• Discuss it to death - you have time, you are going to save a lot of it from cutting red tape.
• Re- energise - Don't rest on your laurels, the chances are even the bravest people wont cut all the processes they can, but when you see it start to work keep going.
• Evolve- Make the department evolve. Don't think in terms of cutting jobs, in tandem with this process identify new things you can get involved with.
  
• Ask - If your not sure about something ask, keep challenging, keep asking 'why?'
• Drag - Don't let other departments drag you down. This process is going to involve telling some departments no. Don't be afraid, help them find another way, maybe even ZBB2.

You can of course use the more traditional tools like 'SMART' and 'SMARTER' to identify and structure departmental objectives.

I leave you with this thought, when I take over my very own HR Department let the whole organisation prepare for the coming of 'ZBB2 - Warm Dread' - It was a time of change, a new leader emerged from behind the mountain paperwork - he was greeted with warm dread (said in best husky movie trailer voice)

Speeches that changed the world

I have seen this book around and it spoke to me as a book that should really be in my collection. After all like most people I am aware of great speeches like the Gettysburg address or the 'I have a dream speech' but I have never actually read them. Plus I am fascinated by such things so when a book token came into my hands I went to get the book.

The speeches have been chosen because of their impact on the world. Some were made by great men, some by evil men and other were made at the right time in the right place.

As good history always does they give us pause for thought sometimes exposing humanity at its greatest and weakest. History has much to teach us and so do these speeches.

Northern Rock watch

Well Northern Rock is still headline news despite nothing more happening. Yawn this story is getting old. The media even the venerable BBC have started interviewing pensioners in the bank queue's who are worried about their pension. Yet, the bank has not collapsed and will not collapse. It is backed by the Bank of England, the government has now gone as far as saying it will guarantee all deposits at Northern Rock.

So why are people still withdrawing money, because the media say so and because everyone else is. Seriously where is the story now. The only story now is 'media seek to undermine the UK banking system'.

The stock market is also looking for the next vulnerable target try to make a profit if another bank hits financial difficulties. The one flaw is that the whole financial system is based on trust. In society we find it difficult to trust any more which can only lead to further instability in the future.

The media and those that do what the media tell them to do or think are part of the problem.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

4. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor dampened, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that ensue.

Notes by Zephyrist:

Basically other people are watching how prepared you are for battle, if they sense weakness they will take advantage.

In business, the same happens, a company going through a rough time will often become the subject of a takeover bid.

Keep your strengths and reserves up and continue fighting.

More McCann stuff

While browsing the times online this article heading caught my eye:

Face it: we need the McCanns to be guilty (The Times)

What it suggests is that we all feel manipulated in this game. That somehow grief has been managed in some sort of branding exercise of PR and spin. It suggests that all summer emotions have been boiling that we have used and because it involved the disappearance of a child we have been unable to criticise for fear of being castigated by society.

It is an interesting article and when I finally wrote about the McCanns I tried to express similar thoughts. However I stopped short of saying I need them to be guilt, indeed I hope that they are innocent just to justify them using every trick in the book to find Madeline.

It still remains that we are still waiting for answers but some sections of the media feel they have been duped and have already convicted the McCanns with no formal evidence. They do this almost every time there is the slightest hint of someone being a suspect. I am amazed that people can still get a fair trial by jury with such damning accusations going on in the press.

The world is still watching, waiting for answers and waiting for Maddie to show up preferably alive although in our hearts we fear the worst.

More Northern Rock stuff

A few more thoughts. Are the people the same people queuing, who when faced with a bank holiday rush to the shops like there is no tomorrow. The same people when faced with extreme weather and told by the police to only travel if necessary and then get themselves into trouble. I am it has to be said a bit of a grumpy old man when people act like sheep. It has always amazed me how completely rational individuals act like nut jobs together.

Let me here you say "Baa!".

Mind you playing devil's advocate the press do have a tendency to mislead everybody. If the weather is extreme they blame the government for not doing something about it and making it safe for everyone. How often do the media mock severe weather warnings from the met office giving it little attention but then complain that no one was warned when it all went wrong.

The bank of England ensures stability in the economy by guaranteeing what could be termed an overdraft facility but the news term it as an emergency loan and start talking about when banks go bankrupt. What can you expect but a belief by the public that there money is at risk.

Of course now that the Northern Rock is the only bank backed by the Bank of England what about the other banks.

News reports suggest that over £1 bn was taken out of Northern Rock accounts yesterday and even more today. Now either the money is being kept under a pillow or the money has been put into another bank. Now the new bank is not guaranteed by the Bank of England, what if it has the same hidden problems or is exposed to the sub prime problems or even in the worst case both problems. What if another bank goes down and the bank of England decides that the new bank isn't as big and wont cause structural economic problems. In a worse case scenario a investor could take money out of Northern rock and put in another bank only to loose the money when the new bank goes down.

That is probably what some commentators have been thinking when they have suggested that Northern Rock is now one of the safest banks in the country.

Exactly how safe is your money now?(The Times -Anatole Kaletsky)

Ever since A level Economics I have respected Anatole Kaletsky, in fact he was essential reading for current economic events. Here is his take on the Northern Rock story:

"Because of the unlimited overdraft facility granted yesterday, Northern Rock’s management is perfectly justified in saying that the company is now a safer place to keep money than any other bank in the world."

-Anatole Kaletsky, The Times

Anatole in the rest of the article succinctly states what the actual problem is or was. The article is written with no hype or scaremongering This is my kind of writing, full of integrity, impartiality and clearly explaining the facts.

Northern Rock hysteria

"Some customers were queuing outside Northern Rock branches"

Why? Its not going to go broke? It has £113 bn in assets. It is supported by the Bank of England. This bank is not going under. However as the Media like a good scare store and the real story is perhaps a bit too economic for most people to understand people are queuing outside banks.

A traditional bank balances its books by lending out to customers what is deposited by customers. However, there is no need to do this as you can lend out more money if your borrow extra money from the money markets. For example you could have a mortgage for 15% interest, the bank can add a batch of mortgages together and borrow at 10% interest. They can make money on the margin.

However, if jitters cause money rates to tighten the cost of borrowing new loans can increase which will threaten the ability of the bank to take in new business or finance old business. In theory the bank could liquidate some of its assets by passing on mortgages but obviously this makes little sense over the long term. So if the bank cannot raise finance on the money markets they can borrow money from the Bank of England as a bank of last resort This is a way of supporting the banking sector through a difficult period. If the bank did not promise a facility then Northern rock could not carry on business as usual and would have to restructure its debt, which is not the same as going out of business.

In this situation it would be likely that there would be major reductions in new business , saving rates would be cut and the mortgage rate would increase. These measures would have a significant effect on the economy, potentially pushing it into recession. Thus the Bank of England always support the industry and the government.

Northern Rock has not yet used the facility but as it is available they can carry on with business as normal. Absolutely no reason to panic. Finance is all about confidence, this loan gives confidence to the Northern Rock and allows them to continue to act normally.

People should also note that the FSA have strict regulations on liquidity which is the ability of a financial institutions to meet its commitments, which basically means having enough capital.

The FSA had this to say about Northern Rock:

"[Northern Rock] exceeds its regulatory capital requirement and has a good quality loan book"

Which translates the Bank has a solid set of accounts, has not got any dodgy loans that are going to fall through and all is fine.

Extreme Warning!! Randomness within - 'Bus Topping'

In one of the James Bond movies they have a character called 'odd job', in a similar vein just call me 'random tangent'.

Whilst sitting on a rather old double decker bus at the back of the lower deck gazing into the middle distance somebody rang the bell. The sign which usually saying 'Bus Stopping' flashed on. The curious thing (OK it was a dull day) was that one of the bright orange upright support bars was blocking my view of the 'S' so what I could actually read is 'Bus topping'.

'Bus topping' almost sounds real. Topping in the UK means killing someone. Was the bus about to be brutally murdered in the street. Was the bus I was on about to go on some brutal bus killing streak plus how exactly do you kill a bus, I have heard of elephant guns but is there such a thing as a bus gun.

Can you hire a killer to do some bus topping. Can you pop into a smoky bar and tell some bloke that a bus 'did you wrong' and you 'want him taught a lesson he wont forget'. Obviously you would have to talk in an east end accent to do the job right just like in all the best movies.

Of course the other reason the sign could say 'bus topping' is that the sign was a question thought on what desert topping you might have with a bus. Do you have custard, ice cream, cream, or chocolate sauce? It certainly had me pondering what kind of topping you could have with a bus on my journey.

Then I woke up and decided I really shouldn't be eating cheese as a midnight snack or I suddenly realised that the rubber seals between me and the engine were faulty and I was beginning to hallucinate.

A psychologist could get a really good Phd out of me.

Buses - How do you eat yours?

The Madeline McCann Case

I am going back into current affairs territory.

I have purposely not written previously about this case. I did not have a lot to say that had not been said elsewhere. When Maddie went missing it was a very tragic tale of a missing child. I did think perhaps that the media campaign seemed to be orchestrated and wondered whether it was so big because she was such a sweet girl from middle class parents. Would the response have been the same for an average girl from council estate parents from Birmingham.

I did not write about those things because I thought it was sour grapes, when anyone goes missing it is a very tragic loss and if all the publicity meant that she was safely returned to her parents then the end would of course justify the means.

The story has evolved in the last few weeks, now the parents are suspect, all sorts of rumours are flying round the net. The search for Maddie has all but vanished.

I want to write about some of the technicalities in the case but find it difficult to do so without thinking that I might appear like some uncaring monster. That is not my intention and I still hope for a happy outcome. So the following is an attempt to separate emotion from reason and look at events in a way that historians might be able to objectively examine some of the facts in many years time.

The first thing is the media hype,for what is often a 24 hour news cycle this story has stayed in the headlines for months. Given that all events did not even happen in this country, the lack of information from the police and the lack of any new information the continuing headlines are unprecedented.

Of course the press have portrayed this as a tragic family ordeal but at this point it could equally be a criminal act or a tragic accident (which could still be a criminal act). However the public through the media are very emotionally involved, a bit like Princess Diana although having some mental health issues was never portrayed as a nutter can Kate McCann ever be portrayed as a murderer. My feeling is that unless a body is found a significant proportion of the public will never believe Maddie was murdered and even if a body does turn up a proportion will never believe that Kate did it even if convicted.

This is at the moment a hypothetical though experiment, there is no body and at the moment it seems that Kate McCann has only been declared a suspect due to a Portuguese law necessity. That is she has to be a suspect to protect her rights and allow the police to ask specific questions. As far as I can make out no evidence has yet been put forward for Kate McCann's involvement in a criminal act. Although there has been a lot of rumours and speculation.

The public also like a good cover up theory. The media were a bit confused in the early days with the reticence of the Portuguese police over the search for Maddie. In Portugal there are restrictions on commenting on current cases which is different from the police culture in Britain. The press in the absence of hard facts took rumours and second hand comments passing it off as news. There are two sides to ever story and when only the McCann's were telling it, how objective were the media in what they reported.

Would the story have been different if it happened in the UK. The Police would have been more open and there would be no unsubtle hints about the lack of trust in the police. No one has come out and said it but I have felt the media were only one step short of saying "Come on of course something funny is going on they are Portuguese."

A lot of people are watching this story with mixed feeling not knowing quite what to believe any more and the outcome may effect people and our society more than they realise.

This story is at a turning point, it is difficult to know what answers we can expect in the next few days. They may not be the ones any one expects.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

3. Again, If the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.

Notes by Zephyrist:

Sun Tzu feels this is so important that he emphasises it again. Long war bad, short war good.

Even in business the quick win is proffered over the long drawn out battle.

Interviews - they are not all the same

Another day of interviews and the usual reminders /pleas. If you have been invited to an interview please research the company and the role. We will be testing your knowledge / understanding of the role and the organisation. After all it is a job interview.

Some more unusual tips from today's interviews. If you take something with you to interview whether it is a folder, bag or just some papers put them down when you get into the interview room anything else and it makes you look nervous and may distract the interviewer.

Hands, the old difficult decision, what to do with your hands. Hand gestures while talking are fine, it suggest enthusiasm, folded arms is a negative signal and be aware of making gestures in your lap. Men or women, do not sit with your legs akimbo making hand gestures in front of your crotch. Best option is to rest your hands in your lap 'demurely' with legs together or crossed.

Finally remember your interviewer is human too, contrary to popular belief we are not out to get you. Pay attention to body language from the interviewer: Do they look interested? Are they glazing over? Are they still writing notes? If your not sure you can ask does that answer your question or if there is anything that you missed out.

As an interviewer I can tell you the interview is not about finding out who is good at interviews but about trying to get the best out of you. Think of yourself as a sponge and the interviewer is trying to ring you out. If they ask follow up questions they are either expecting more or think that you have more to give. Follow up questions are not necessarily bad they mean you are still in with a chance.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardour will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.


Notes by Zephyrist:

A long entrenched battle such as Vietnam and Iraq will sap the armies strength, wear out weapons and become a trap. A quick battle is always best.

In the workplace, a constant battle against a foe will sap moral. 'Quick wins' are important to bolster the team and give it renewed energy and purpose.

A waiting game will only eat up resources, you need to move forward. In a battle on the high street between rival retailers you cannot wait for the enemy to run out of ideas, you have to have better ideas or you will be left behind. Inactivity can only use up resources and may lead to defeat.

I'll Wait for the Next One (J'Attendrai Le Suivant)

I found this on some random page in the web. A bit of culture for my blog, it must be cultural cos it is in French with subtitles. An excellent short film with a neat twist at the end. Enjoy.

'Too few cells' under prison plan (BBC)

Another article about how the prison system is overcrowded, how serious offenders have been realised early and how the government are doing nothing about it.

The Ministry of Justice (which sounds like a ministry from some combination world of Harry Potter and Batman) latest figures suggest that even under the most optimistic scenario they will still be struggling for spaces.

In the worst case scenario an estimated 20,000 place will be needed by 2012. Seriously is it not time to start building more prisons. Feel free to work on rehabilitation and training etc but as a short term measure we need a few more prisons.

I should point out that some prison wings are going to be re-opened, Dartmoor prison has applied to re-open a closed wing.

Although releasing prisoners early seems like a good idea, it should only be a short term measure as the Judge gave them a sentence which they should serve. Such wanton disregard for the criminal justice system can only make the situation worse, habitual criminals will see the system as a soft touch.

Blogs Of Note: Javajive - Photography from indonesia

I am still using 'stumbleupon' to find interesting photography sites. I came across this great Brandon Hoover's photography blog, not only are the photos top quality but the subjects of people and places of Indonesia is fascinating.

The blog is well organised, you can either read it like a blog or use the tags to get at separate subjects. He also has galleries on smug mug and flickr.

You can spend a lot of time here looking at the pictures.

Phtographs on a summers day

I took a few photos on the way home from a friends on a clear summer Sunday morning.











A typical English country church.








A pastel brick wall.











A curving brick wall down a lane.












New bricks, old bricks, all the same.



A soaring cloud bird.





The stone face.

The Daily Mail experiment (Guardian)

If you have read my opinions on some sections of the UK media, you know that I think some newspapers are rather jaded and give a completely un-balanced view of the world.

You no longer have to take my world for it, Nick Angel for the Guardian spent one month reading only the Daily Mail for his news.

I think the introductory text says it all:

"A month spent reading the nation's leading mid-market newspaper took me into a terrifying, depressing world, filled with suspicion."

-Nick Angel, The Guardian. August 20th 2007.

The good thing about modern society is that no one gets their news from just one source, so there is a bit of balance in the system. However humans have an uncanny trait of only accepting information which matches their own beliefs / standards. So Daily mail readers only get their news from daily mail like sources.

In other words there really are people out in the world that share the view of the Daily Mail. Sometimes I wonder whether there is any point in anything other than local news. How relevant is crime in a different area to you. A constant diet of crime news leads people to perceive that crime is actually worse than it is. After all not every teenager is a hoodie wearing, knife wielding psychopath.

People say the truth is out there, but first you have to work out what the truth is. Can actual news be separated from opinion and bias.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

1. SunT zu said: In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, as many heavy chariots and a hundred thousand mail clad soldiers, with provision enough to carry them a thousand [miles], the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men.

Notes by Zephyrist:

At today's prices this works out at $140,000 a day which even for a primitive army is below the actual cost. So the comparison doesn't hold true today.

Sun Tzu was actually reminding us that not only are there in the field costs but there are basic maintenance and administrative costs. These can be important as the fighting men themselves. Modern armies don't always remember this. They get the men in the field but try to skimp on equipment and maintenance.

The same could be said for a lot of companies, it is modern to cut back-office costs and cut down on expenses and entertaining. Sun Tzu sees this area of business just as important as the fighting front. Without support and investment in the support functions the fighting or customer facing units can not operate effectively.

For an HR Analogy, invest in your recruitment and HR you can get the right people for job. Streamline processes and red tape and the front line staff can concentrate on their job. For every amount of time you ask someone to fill a form in ask is it an effective use of their time, if it isn't loose the form.

Sun Tzu writes almost as if he is justifying to a minister or king how much an army costs. Perhaps a king has questioned why glue or armor repairs have cost so much. Sun Tzu has basically replied by saying if you want a 100,000 men on the field of battle this is how much it costs. I can spend less but I don't guarantee victory.

Happy Birthday Blogger

Well yesterday the 23 August 2007 was bloggers eighth birthday and today this is post number 200 for my humble blog.

Two milestones in two days, congratulations all round.

Movies teach us that any celebration of a successful job involving lot of standing up, clapping whopping and mass hugging. Does that really happen, or does everyone just relax and thank whatever deity they worship and head for the pub / home / any other similar place.

Travian - be a village leaader in the time of the roman empire

I have discovered a new on-line strategy game which I have been playing around with.

Travian is a free browser based game where you start off as a leader of a small village. You then build up your resources by upgrading your production of the four key resources clay, wood, wheat and iron.

When you have a stronger village you can then get into trading, defence, attack, joining an alliance or founding new villages etc.

It is a game that needs patience as only a few moves can be made each day especially during the initial growth phase although it is good to see your village get bigger over time. This slowness can be an advantage as you are never going to spend hours a day with your village although for maximum growth you would need to tinker every few hours. Having said that you don't need to, I just go in once a day for ten minutes.

I started off as a Roman, apparently the easiest tribe to start. Each tribe has specific bonuses and specialisms. At the end of the first week I am still growing my resources to allow me to do other things but it certainly looks like a good game.

One of the big features is alliances, when you build an embassy you can join an alliance where you can co-ordinate defence, attack or just share resources. Here you can also sort out wars and diplomatic squabbles. I haven't got this far yet but it certainly sounds interesting.

The interface is good too, simple with colourful graphics, it is quite easy to pick up. There are also forums, FAQ's and guides to help you along the way if you get stuck or want to find out more about something.

Photographer: David Burdeny

I find photography fascinating, one particular favourite area is landscape images and even better if it has the sea or coast as the subject.

Looking at a really good photograph is like flipping a switch in the brain which turns on 10,000 v of electricity directly into the brain.

David Burdeny does just that, his photographs are simply breathtaking. The elegance and simplicity with the atmospheric black and white images are just simply stunning.

I would beg to be able to capture images in this way, these photographs make me want to live by the sea for a year trying to get just one image half as good as his.

If you want more images and who would not go to his website, david budeney photgraphic works for more coast shots as well as a study of landscaped in colour motion.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

I Laying plans Summary

Notes by Zephyrist:

From Section 1 laying plans, we have learnt that the plan is everything. A good plan will go a long way along the road to victory, no planning will lead to failure.

“Failures don't plan to fail; they fail to plan”

-Harvey Mackay, US Columnist and businessman

Sun Tzu has talked us through the analysis of comparing rulers, generals and armies deciding who has the strength in one factor above the other.

All battles are built upon deception, you must convince the enemy you are weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak. Look for the points of weakness and exploit them in the enemy. For your points of weakness hide them and look weak where you are strong.

Plans should be divulged to as few people as possible, although false plans may be leaked to confuse the enemy.

Although Sun Tzu is talking about battles the reason he has been so popular through the ages is that his ideas can be applied to every day life. Even family holidays need planning with military precision.

Next week Section 2: Waging War

Stumble upon

This is another kind of social bookmarking site that I have discovered and I have to say it is cool I might even say it is the best thing since sliced bread.

Basically you sign up for an account specific some interests, download the firefox / IE toolbar and then stumble through the web. This means basically click on the stumble icon and it will take you to a random page. However the neat thing is it takes you to a popular page which has been rated by other users.

It takes you to some really great stuff that you would just not discover otherwise, already with in about five clicks I have found a awesome photo site 'young gallery' and a page of haiku error messages.

Plus if you don't like the page you just hit the stumble button again.

Of course when you look at a site you can give it the thumbs up or thumbs down to adjust the rating. This simple interface has the simplicity of the google search page. Of course it has plenty of other options to explore as well.

This is just what the web has been crying out for, it is such a great idea it will probably be snapped up by the big companies and be renamed 'google stumble upon'.

"Next time you want to wander the Web, forget about Googling it. Stumble it."

- The Wall Street Journal

Fictional Character Lonely Hearts Advertisements

Can you guess the name of the fictional character?

1.

Mild mannered investigative reporter seeks similar for moonlight flights and general crime fighting.

2.

Middle-aged man seeks woman who likes wearing rubber skin tight suits and wants to hang out in my cave. Join me, my young ward and elderly man servant. Homo-erotic fantasists need not apply.

3.

Intelligent males seeks female to share life. I am trying to deal with a serious drug addiction problem so must be understanding. Join me and my autobiography writing life partner for a life of mystery and adventure battling my arch nemesis. Homo erotic fantasists need not apply.

4.

Young noble, intelligent bowman seek fair lady to share life in the great forest. Must enjoy parties with merry mean and have similar views on taxation. Must be loyal subject of King Richard.

5.

Smart, sophisticated Yorkshire man who is a bit of a night-owl seeks lady of the night for necking, frolics and night time walks. O positive blood type preferred.

6.

Smart, sophisticated man of the world, seek ladies to spend the night with for games of 'I spy' guaranteed to leave you shaken not stirred.

[---End of adverts---]

Answers

1. Super man
2. Bat man
3. Sherlock Holmes
4. Robin Hood
5. Dracula
6. James Bond

What did you score?

0 - you didn't quite get this did you.
1-2 you picked up the obvious ones
2-4 not bad you are Mr or Miss average
5 Very good sharp and intelligent
6 I am taking my own test, I already knew the answers.

Disclaimer: The above are fictional advertisements. Any similarity to actual people living or dead, any organisation or any event is purely coincidental. The above are merely comedy sketches out of the author's head. They may only be amusing to the author, no responsibility for laughter or lack of it can be taken.

Dating Video Transcripts: No Takers?

The following are extracts from transcripts of dating videos, all prospective dates were asked the same question: "What do you look for in a partner?".

All of the videos share one thing, to date there have been no responses.

What do you look for in a partner?

male #426799

Big jugs. I cant be bothered to get up to go to the fridge during the football so any woman I date must have big 4 pint pitchers to hold my beer.

male #424896

Signs of mental instability, after all she is dating me.

male#723981

I cant stand big hooters. Those road hogs who will hoot their horn at anything and everything, they should have to retake their driving test.

male#239173

She must like the sound of leather hitting willow and they should not moan about grass stains. You cant beat a good game of cricket.

male#162934

A pulse [laughs]... Ok I'm desperate, will settle for still warm.

female#123255

Someone that doesn't require much training. Mind you once I get the chocolate drops and the choke chain out they soon learn who is boss.

female#456392

...Oh sorry I thought that was a rhetorical question, I am at a video dating agency I cant afford to be picky.

female#349272

Somewhere soft on his head to bury the axe.

male#831385

I am an eight level wizard with psychic attraction powers. I don't look for anything in a woman they find me, plus if I want I use my power to change them.

female#412357

Nuts, I like to grab them, cut them down the middle and then slowly eat each half. I just really like salted peanuts.

female#239022

Someone that puts the toilet seat down... I mean how hard is it, its not rocket science, seriously the next boyfriend that does that to me is going to be buried under the new patio. I just want to kill people that leave the toilet seat up. In my book hanging is too good for them.

female #127343

A brain [laughs]... I am still looking.

female #107360

Old, a large bank balance and a heart condition... OK maybe a similar terminal condition but I am not compromising on the old and large bank balance.

male #250269

Someone that knows how to deal with a cock flying at speed over a net straight at them. I really could not date another women who doesn't play and understand badmington.

male#364829

Someone that can cook, clean and do the housework. That way I can make the maid redundant.

female #248956

A big rod and tackle box, nothing beats a good days fishing.

female #237460

Someone to look after the kids while I go sell drugs down the pub.

male #237461

Someone to look after the drugs while I go sell the kids down the pub.

(note: although no responses to the above two candidates have been received, we recently received an email from male #237461 stating that he had met the female in the waiting room and they were now married, living in Thailand with no kids and lots of money)

Disclaimer: The above are fictional transcripts. Any similarity to actual people living or dead, any organisation or any event is purely coincidental. The above are merely comedy sketches out of the author's head. They may only be amusing to the author, no responsibility for laughter or lack of it can be taken.

Social bookmarking

There are all sorts of things you can add to blogs to make things user friendly. Looking at various other blogs there are all sorts of icons at the bottom of the post so you can bookmark it at whatever bookmarking site you like.

I wanted to add a couple of links for any user that wanted to do this, especially as it may not always be easy to bookmark an article if I have linked to another web page.

So I had a look round and digg.com and del.icio.us looked to be the most popular / practical. I already think technorati is a good site so Iwanted to include that too.

I had a look round for some simple guides on how to add buttons to the blogger template and found this excellent primer for digg.com Add Digg button to Blogger or Blogspot. The good thing about it is the techniques can also be used to position other similar buttons.

Then I moved on to add a del.icio.us button. I couldn't quite find what I wanted on their site and a google search didn't turn up any gold nuggets. So I went back to the Tips for new bloggers and came across the useful free tool they use to bookmark their posts. A useful widget from addthis.com. This widget basically lets the user choose which site to bookmark the page too including all the usual suspects and some unusual ones as well. So this stylish little icon at the bottom of my posts can be used to bookmark articles just about anywhere.

A job well done I think, so enjoy. I have also signed up to digg.com and del.icio.us so I may be back later to report on how things go.

New Scientist cover art

The Royal Mail do framed collections of a year's stamps recognising that the stamps are often art work in themselves.

New Scientist magazine should consider doing the same, some of their cover art is inspired and even better you get a new one each week. The only disadvantage is that the cover is always cluttered up with text of what's inside.

To illustrate the artistic nature of the covers, I took the original covers, de cluttered them and the put them in a nice collage. These are some of my favourite covers out of the magazines that I had hanging around. All from either 2006 or 2007.

All copyright belong to New Scientist magazine. On their website you can often see examples of covers and in the archive are all the covers from recent years.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

I Laying plans contd...

25,26

These military devices, leading to victory, must not be divulged beforehand.

Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere [before] the battle is fought. The general who looses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations [to] lead to victory, and few calculations to [lead] to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee [predict] who is likely to win or lose.

Notes by Zephyrist:

The first thing to notice about these last two paragraphs is that they are very poorly phrased. Above I have added the minimum of extra words to clarify small points but the entire second paragraph would be better written as:

"Now, the general who winds a battle makes many of the above considerations in his head before the battle is fought. The general who looses a battles gives little consideration to the above before a battle: How badly would a battle go with no consideration! It is by examining the amount of consideration given to the battle plan that I can predict who will win or lose."

In terms of interpreting meaning the first paragraph is simple, if the enemy knows your plan he can beat it. So best to keep it a secret and tell as few people as possible, after all you may have spies on your side.

As many typical posters in the UK during world war II said "Careless talk cost lives".

The final paragraph is basically where Sun Tzu says the outcome of the battle can by in large be predicted by looking at the plan. If the general has taken all of Sun Tzu's advice into consideration then victory is likely. If the plan is haphazard and doesn't consider all possibilities then defeat is likely. If there is no planning then although Sun Tzu leaves it up to the reader to decide it is obvious he believes that utter defeat or worse is likely.

That is the end of section I, next week a quick summary and then onto section II waging war.

237 reasons to have sex

Seen on 'Short Sharp Science' a recent study has been asking people why they have sex and they have produced a definitive list of 237 reasons. Yes, there are apparently more than the two reasons of "too have fun" and "to make babies". Entire academic article available here.

So extracted from the table of top 50 reasons to have sex for men and women:

M & F: 1. I was attracted to the person.

F: 9, M: 17. I realised I was in love.

F: 39, M:Not in top 50. The person was intelligent.

F: 2, M:3. I wanted to experience the physical pleasure.

F34, M:16. The person had a desirable body.

M & F:7. I was 'horny'.

Going over the table some stereotypes are reinforced but it is also obvious that men and women aren't that different after all. On the scoring side of things men gave higher scores than women suggesting perhaps that women had a wider variety of reasons for having sex where as men have more narrow reasons.

I thought it was all so simple, I wonder if anyone did it for love. The authors of the article then went on to identify four large factors and 13 sub factors.

It all sounds rather interesting, I hope new Scientist do a more detailed article on it at some point which might be a bit more easy going for us non academic researchers.

I have a question though, Can someone fund a study to find out whether more sex goes on at sex psychology conferences than other similar conferences.

The article does not state whether the authors had sex and for what reasons. Perhaps the over analysis of the reasons for having sex put them off the idea and they decided to read a good book instead.

Blogs of Note: Short Sharp Science

Not only is it a bit of a tongue twister but it is also the New Scientist magazine's news blog on all things science.

Always worth a read if you want to know the latest bit of science.

Ten Steps to making Better Decisions (New Scientist)

In May 2007, New Scientist magazine had an article entitled 'How to make decisions', The article outlined and discussed ten steps to help us. The article was a collection of scientific reports and study which supported each step.

Ethically it would be wrong of me to publish the entire 10 steps as it is a subscription magazine and the entire article is not available on the net.

Some of the ten steps are fairly predictable indeed if you wrote down ten things that your parents told you which turned out to be true you would probably get quite close to the New Scientist list.

6. "Don't cry over spilt milk"

This is where we have invested something in a project and are therefore more inclined to stick with it rather than just walk away. Even governments suffer from this, examples include the channel tunnel and Concorde.

If something is no longer a good idea then it is time to walk away. Careers can be like this, you spend ten years working your way up only for the industry to go through a massive restructure. You don't have to go back into the same industry, but we think with ten years experience you would be a fool to walk away now.

7. "Look at it another way"

The Science they bring into this is that the way we frame a problem impacts on our decision.

Consider the following two hypothetical situations taken from the article:

Scenario 1

"Your home town faces an outbreak of a disease that will kill 600 people if nothing is done. To combat it you can chose either programme A, which will save 200 people or programme B, which has a one in three chance of saving 600 people but also a two in three chance of saving nobody. Which do you choose?"

Scenario 2

"You are faced with the same disease and the same number of fatalities, but this time programme A will result in the certain death of 400 people whereas programme B has a one in three chance of zero deaths and a two in three chance of 600 deaths."

Of course most people would choose A in Scenario 1 and B in Scenario 2. The certain saving of 200 people while condemning 400 to death. The media would crucify you either way but that is the curse of disaster management, you make the best decisions you can to save as may lives as possible.

Both scenarios are the same and both result in the same probabilities but because the way the scenario's are framed we are left predisposed to a specific answer. The more positive a statement the more we are likely to agree with it.

"It also explains why healthy snacks tend to be marketed as "90% fat free" rather than "10% fat".

-Ten Steps to making Better Decisions (New Scientist)

President Bush and gifts

President Bush, as a parting gift to Gordon Brown gave him one of his own trademark brown leather monogrammed bomber jackets. I don't think we will be seeing Gordon Brown wearing it soon although given the amount of crises he has dealt with since he took over he may soon be wearing a flak jacket and tin helmet.

Frazer(Gordon Brown):"We're Doomed!"

Jones (Ed Balls):"Don't panic! Don't panic! "

-Quotes from Dad's Army 1968-77

Anyway aside from quoting old sit-coms, I thought I would have a quick look on the web and see what other gifts President Bush has received lately.

Office of Protocol; Gifts to Federal Employees From Foreign GovernmentSources Reported to Employing Agencies in Calendar Year 2004; Notice

All the records are published on line, you just had to wade through the pages. All of the following gifts given to the President of the United States are taken from the above notice.

1. 32'' marble statue of Hercules by Pieto Galli (1895).

2. Variety of silk ties .

3. 10' braided brown leather with ornate multicoloured detailing on a carved wooden handle.

4. 12'' Lacquer ware bamboo bowl, Est Value $99. (Notes by Zephryist: Why not the full $100, did someone leave the price tag on by mistake)

5. 4'' Earth Elements cinnamon scented candle. Est Value $20.

6. DVD:"Singing in the rain" starring Gene Kelly and Debbie Reynolds.

7. CD:"That Christmas feeling" by Various artists. (Notes by Zephyrist: I cant help thinking this came free with the morning paper)

8. Multi coloured beaded ornament with 'Joy' printed on it.

9. Game: Horse Race Derby: An Action marble game. Estimated value $16

10. yellow ceramic soap dish painted with a multicoloured country home in the center. Est Value $26.

11. Paperback book: "The worst case scenario hand book"

12. Department 56 brown log cabin wax candle held on black iron base.

13. Jars of various fertilisers held on a wooden revolving display.

14. Myrtle flower scented candles.

The list goes on for other major officials in the Government.

I think what we can safely take away from this is that when popping in to the White House and wondering what to buy there is no need to panic. It doesn't have to cost much and something suitable could be picked up at the local market.

'Bite my shiny metal arse' - Futurama is coming back

Yes, it has come to my attention that the greatest cartoon ever written by Matt Groening is coming back. No, not 'The Simpsons' but 'Futurama', originally canceled by the dastardly Fox Network is to return.

It will start off as four DVD movies but will be re cut into TV episodes to be shown on American cable station Comedy Central. Obviously no channel in the UK has picked it up, but it is surely only a matter of time before one of the terrestrial channel picks up the series. After all the runs of the previous series were a success on channel 4 and surely most people are getting bored of the constant re-runs of 'The Simpsons'.

Let's just hope Sky don't get there first, although I think purchasing 'Futurama' may conflict with their flagship cartoon series 'The Simpsons'.

Clips of the show have been shown at press events and include a segment where Professor Farnsworth tells the crew that the people at box network who canceled the team have been fired, beaten and killed. A not so subtle dig at the idiots who canceled the show at Fox.

The Media desperation that is the silly season of August

The Guardian pointed out something to me on the train today which I had forgotten. As traditional as Christmas in media circles is the August silly season. Everyone is on holiday politicians, celebrities and anything else that usually makes the news. So the media desperately scratch around for some headline grabbers and comes up with the usual cliched slow new day stories.

The Guardian, every helpful gives us a few suggestions and comments on the stories to watch out for this August.

August 8th - Radio 4 recruits listeners for new national study involving Bill Oddie.

August 16th - Students celebrate A-level success.

"A strikingly attractive 18 year old girl has done fairly well in her A-levels, according to a report in every local paper in the United Kingdom. The 18 year old's photo dominates the front page of the paper... A picture spread in the Daily Mail reveals that there was jubilation, also, for a set of triplets from the home counties, who each got 14 A-grades and will all be heading to Oxbridge... and a life ultimately devoid of meaning.
But there was disappointment for other students, because they are ugly and thick."

-The Guardian, G2 Thursday 02.08.07

I have paraphrased a bit but that whole section is inspired. So true as well, I am guessing they will find an emo kid this year to parade as a failure forgetting that taste in music has nothing to do with educational success.

August 18 - New website is latest online sensation.

Something like a new facebook or myspaz. Thousands of people will use this new web 2.0 starlet but it will have its detractors.

August 20 - Country dwellers demonstrate in London

August 23 - Gatwick terror panic

This one goes a bit random telling a tale of banning airline passengers from wearing green hats but permitting rocket propelled grenade launchers.

However it does expose a typical media ploy of the on the spot interview:

"A defiant group of Britons interviewed by ITN News also refused to be cowed by the threat of terrorism. They said it was crucial for the survival of liberal democracy that they press ahead with plans to spend the weekend getting life threateningly drunk in the lap dancing clubs of Talinn."

-The Guardian, G2 Thursday 02.08.07

August 24 Bank Holiday travel chaos misery

Usually reported live on a bridge over the M5 where they tell you how many cars are entering Devon and Cornwall.

August 30 Animal spotted in surprising place

As the Guardian says 'insert own animal' here such as shark, whale, tiger,or monkey, shown in the UK being watched by gawpers, sorry I mean onlookers.

I personally like the stories when the vulture escapes and they have to leave out dead cows to try and recapture it again.

"The surprisingly located animal becomes an unlikely hero and was given a cute nickname as the whole country watched the drama unfold on Sky News. But eventually specialists concluded that they had not option but to put it down."

-The Guardian, G2 Thursday 02.08.07

If you were feeling really energetic you could organise a sweep stake with friends. Pick 3 out of the six events named above, pick a date and either location / animal or other subject. Then you get a point for each one you get right, three points per prediction making nine points in total.

So creating an example from the guardian they might go for:

August 8 - Radio 4 survey - pebblewatch
August 16 - A level success - Daily mail triplets going to Oxbridge
August 30 - Strange animal - whale seen in thames

My ideas are:

August 15 - Strange animal - Vulture spotted on Dartmoor / Exmoor
August 16 - A level success - famous person's son / daughter gets A's and heads to Oxbridge
August 24 - Bank Holiday travel chaos - main rail line closed for bank holiday weekend

New word: Borken

While trying to type an article up at speed I kept trying to type 'broken', every so often it would come out 'borken' which made me think that it should be a new word.

Borken: Totally and utterly broken.

Examples:
That computer is borken.
I borked it.
I borked the sound barrier.

HR - Harpies Revisited or Helpful Resources

Background:

This article was written a few years ago, before blogs were much more than just the latest thing. I was working at a company who used HR as a hammer to crack nuts. I was still fairly green when it came to what actually happened in a HR department.

The following is probably what most people think HR should be about entering the profession. It is still important not to loose sight of the simplistic mission statement and that is why I am posting it here, to clip it for the future.

Now as a slightly older wiser me, one that has been perhaps sidelined by my own profession, I would find it a lot harder to say what HR should be about.

I have made minor edits along the same message as the original article.

HR - Harpies Revisited or Helpful Resources.

HR is all about strategic partnerships and getting behind the goals of the business. Does this override the rights and freedoms of an employee?

The laws of any country are created to protect the rights of the individual. Often these laws are needed to protect innocent and vulnerable people from aggressive, powerful people and institutions.

In this spirit Employment legislation is drafted to protect the employee from the employer. However, rather than be dictated to by central government in a culture of confrontation and red tape can Human Resources not take the final step and become a just, fair, responsible and ethical profession. A profession that does not need laws to regiment ever last detail and is more self-sufficient and self regulating.

Now I realise I have virtually alienated most of the profession by suggesting that we are as morally reprehensible as dodgy estate agents or ambulance chasing lawyers but what HR lacks to a greater and lesser extent is a universal code of honour. It is important to note that the CIPD which has a professional code of conduct does not cover all people that work in HR.

I want to explore the HR / Employee relationship and set out three fundamental tests of reasonableness that each HR professional should consider.

Three tests of reasonableness:

1. Is it reasonable?

2. Is it consistant?

3. Is it in agreement with or in the spirit of Employment legislation and guidance?

1. Is it reasonable and justifiable?

Any decision should face this test, is it the right thing to do? Would any reasonable person agree with you?

2. Is it consistent?

Take two employees with the same problem one who badgers you every second of the day and the other who sends you a polite letter. Each employee should be treated in the same way and the decision made in both cases should be the same.

Beware of making policy. A consistent decision sets a benchmark for the future, are you happy for that decision to be made on a larger scale for the following employees. Any change in consistency must go back to point one, is it reasonable and justifiable. A succession of incorrect decisions cannot be justified by repetition in the name of consistency.

3. Is it in agreement with or in the spirit of Employment legislation and guidance?

The law cannot cover every eventuality but it is possible to derive a spirit of the law from legislation. All decisions should be made with this in mind.


"The law shall not be broken" should be written on the wall of your HR department. HR professionals should not be put in a position under pressure or encouraged to act against the law by other HR professionals or unscrupulous employers.

However, if the law is broken the rectification and recompense should be evaluated against the three tests of reasonableness.

Employment tribunals will always be with us but should be seen as a last desperate resort after both parties have failed to reach an agreement. An employer would already have done everything possible to reach an amicable agreement including via independent industrial conciliation.

A walk along the canal

On one of the recent sunny days I went for a walk along the canal with my camera. It was a lovely day and a very peaceful walk. Just what I needed.

The Path Ahead













Canal bridge in sunlight


















Post apocalyptic Oxfordshire








Summer on the river












The Dish


















River meadow


If you wish to see more of my photographs I have an online gallery.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

I Laying plans contd...

23,24.

If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united separate them.

Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

Notes by Zephyrist:

These two really continue along the same theme of keeping the enemy unsettled. They are fairly self explanatory.

At points Sun Tzu goes into detail making his writing almost 'Warfare for Dummies' whilst at other times his teachings require a bit more thought. It is the detail together with the self exploration that has meant these are still standard studies for military men today.

The differing styles also suggest that it may have been written and adapted over the centuries by more than one man.

Next week the conclusion of Section I - Laying plans.