Shakespeare's Monkey

Most people have heard of the theory that a monkey given an infinite amount of time and a computer will eventually type out the complete works of Shakespeare.

I of course wanted to test the theory, I do random things like that sometimes.

Rather than digitise the complete works of Shakespeare I thought I would start with the famous phrase:

"To be or not to be"

So programmed in perl with a mysql database attached a random number generator tries to recreate the famous phrase. With a bit of calculation it works out the percentage match and records the monkey world record.

Try it for yourself here - Monkey Shakespeare.

Snow Watch Leg 3

According to the latest met office weather warnings there is a good chance of snow across most of the country on Thursday.

Updates will follow

Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/images/snow-depth-2-Dec-2010-0900.jpg

Check this out for a map of the lying snow. Adding insult to injury at Snow Watch Headquarters is that we are right in the middle of that small finger of no snow in the middle of the country. 50 miles in either direction and you have piles of it but nothing here.

Current update: little lying snow left with the odd flake in the air, bitterly cold.

Snow Watch Leg 2 update

Well the blizzards did not materialise, believe it or not I am in the small part of the country which has got away with only 1 / 2 cm of snow. Yet travel 50 miles east, south or north and you see feet and inches of the stuff.

The main roads are completely clear and even the estate back roads are only slightly icy. Its hard to reconcile the tv news saying the whole country has come to a complete halt when all of us in Oxfordshire are going about our normal hum drum lives.

Of course next week the situation could be completely reversed.

I am sure it is absolutely terrible in Scotland and in the north east but I cant help secretly liking the idea of 100cm of lying snow. A once in a life time experience, one you would perhaps rather reflect on by the pool in 32 degrees of sunshine but an experience none the less.

All we can expect round here over the next few days are a few night snow showers.

Snow Watch Winter 2010/11 - Leg 1 Update and new Leg 2

Well this season has got off with back to back legs.

Leg 1 Update

This was the snow that was due today. The warnings were quickly downgraded over the last couple of days and in the end we just got a "shake" of snow overnight. For non snow watch regulars a shake is what you would get if you get an icing sugar duster and give it a shake. It has already almost vanished. Judging by the cloud cover although snow like, it does not have that heavy pregnant look so it seems that is pretty much the end of leg 1.

1254 hours: Very slight flakes in the air

Leg 2 - Blizzard Watch

Yes, you heard it right the met office put out an early warning for Tuesday yesterday with a chance of blizzards:

Rain is expected to spread northwards during the day, turning to snow widely as it does so. Strong northeasterly winds will also be a feature, perhaps reaching gale force in exposed areas. This will lead to the potential for blizzard conditions in places, with significant disruption a possibility. At present, these conditions seem likely to continue into Wednesday.

Issued at: 1144 Fri 26 Nov

This is expected to cover the whole of the south of England. A couple of technical weather points for you. Snow usually comes down from the north, when it comes from the south it turns from rain to snow as it moves to the north. In addition if the new low pressure overwhelms the cold high pressure (already in place) then it may warm up increasing the likelihood of rain. Basically for the best snow fall you want to be on the cold side of the pressure battleground giving maximum snow. Of course if it is cold enough and the pressures are finally balanced you also get a heavy snow fall.

So snow could be on the way up from the south but it may fall as rain, or fall as rain first. Only updates from the met office will give us a better idea of what is going to happen.

For a bit of fun, here is an artist's impression of me standing in a blizzard. If you look very closely you can see me waving.

Of course while I have been writing this article the met office have given their daily update, blizzards has been changed to heavy and drifting snow on Tuesday for the east and not the south of England. The good news is that I am still due to get some.





Latest met office update is:

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting northern and eastern parts of the UK. Strong north-easterly winds and heavy snow showers will lead to accumulations of 5 to 10cm quite widely and up to 20cm in places. There may also be some drifting of snow in the wind.

Issued at: 1158 Sat 27 Nov

There are also warnings out for Wednesday for snow although not for Oxfordshire although that could change over the coming days.

More analysis and news from North Oxfordshire Snow watch in due course.

Snow Watch Winter 2010/11 - Leg 1

Snow is on its way.

For a very early start to the season we have our first weather advisory issued for North Oxfordshire this Saturday there is a moderate chance of heavy snow with potential for accumulations of 1 - 5 cm.

Now as many seasoned snow veterans know a weather advisory does not automatically mean a blizzard especially 4 days out from the actual event. This could be downgraded or upgraded as we get closer to Saturday.

The good news is that snow showers are forecast from Thursday onwards.

Watch the met office for an update tomorrow lunchtime. Watch this space, will the season start with full on snow or will it turn into a damp squib. Only time will tell.

Train overcrowding: how to fight back.

Ever since this article on the BBC a couple of weeks ago thoughts have been running through my head about how the humble commuter, fed up with being treated worse than a sardine can fight back.

Of course we are only in this position because the companies themselves and the government refuse to do anything about it. Mind you, I am guessing if they were all faced with having to travel by train on a daily basis and not in first class they would quickly do something about it. Lord Young and others are probably at least privately thinking that commuters have never had it so good.

As far as I can work out there are only two ways we can attack the problem.

Breach of Contract (Small claims court)

This I envisage working similar to the banking charges saga. The BBC article linked gave me the signpost.

Under their franchise agreements train operators are required to use "reasonable endeavours" to give peak passengers "a reasonable expectation of a seat within 20 minutes of boarding"

Not exactly great legally crisp wording but there is something here we can work with. Essentially if the conditions are not met you could perhaps claim that the train operator has broken their contract with you which was made when you purchased the ticket based on all relevant legislation and contracts including the franchise agreement.

All we have to do is sort out the test of reasonableness to see if you can make a claim. First we need a reference period. The train operator would clearly be able to wriggle out of a claim if it was based on 1 or 2 journeys or the train was late, weather delays, other delays or delays outside of its control. So lets say 5 journeys on the same train or at around the same time would constitute a reasonable reference period. This is a week of commuting or five regular journeys over a different period.

Now the line states that you have a reasonable expectation of finding a seat within 20 minutes. So any journey under 30 minutes (must be scheduled journey time not actual journey time) is not going to be worth claiming for, again you would need to take into account any delays, which would not count towards the 30 minutes.

Next a reasonable expectation of finding a seat, in order to prove this you would have to walk up and down the carriages looking for a seat, so the best thing to do is only claim when you cannot walk up and down the carriages as clearly in this circumstance you do not have a reasonable chance of finding a seat.

Again if you wanted to be really clever and possibly evil you could find a railway employee and ask them if you have a reasonable expectation of finding a seat on the train (use that exact wording). This would be extra juicy evidence against the company as they are a representative of the company giving a professional opinion. You could also consider collecting witness statements from people on the same train. Don't worry too much about witness statements as the onus would be on the company to prove you wrong, plus as long as overcrowding is regular if they contested it you could take a video camera on the next journey. The company cant make the problem go away over night.

You would also need to submit evidence of tickets, at least the photocopies. If it is not a season ticket you may wish to consider submitting the originals or at the very least offering to surrender the ticket if your claim is subject to refund. Obviously with a season ticket you can submit a copy. Also note that any claim should only be for the contested journeys, you cant claim a refund of a season ticket based on five journeys. In this case you must work out the proportion of the ticket that relates to those journeys.

So in summary to make a claim you need to fulfil these pre-requisites:

• Scheduled journey time of over 30 minutes
• 5 journeys on the same train or 5 journeys at roughly the same time over a regular frequency
• a valid ticket
• details of the trains travelled on
• Unable to walk up and down to find a seat

If you have fulfilled all these requirements then you can start a similar two step process to the reclaim of bank charges.

Step 1 is write to the train company, perhaps something like this:

Dear Customer Services,

I am writing to complain about the state of overcrowding on your peak time trains. As a regular user it is clear to me that you are doing nothing to address overcrowding and are therefore in breach of the commitment in your franchise agreement:

"train operators are required to use reasonable endeavours to give peak passengers a reasonable expectation of a seat within 20 minutes of boarding

Here are the details of the trains I travelled on, the journey times and my comments on the availability of seats:

etc etc

I have also enclosed a copy of my ticket/s for your reference.

You have 28 days to reply to this letter detailing the steps you will take to solve the overcrowding issues on these trains. In addition, I am claiming a full refund for the price of the tickets attached as you have clearly and persistently failed to fulfil the terms of agreement under which they were bought.

If you do not provide satisfactory recompense within 28 days then you will leave me with no choice but to pursue the matter through the civil courts.

Yours sincerely etc.

Sit back and wait for a response, the options here are that you get ignored, fobbed off or offered some compensation.

If you get ignored, check their customer service agreement and write one more time quoting their customer service agreement and giving them a final 28 days to reply. You may wish to copy in the Managing Director, chances are the letter will just get forward on the customer services department and match up with your other letter, but you never know. If the ignore you a second time then you have now made every reasonable endeavour to resolve the matter with the company (this will be important in any legal claim) and you can now put in your claim with the courts for full compensation.

If they fob you off, reply re-iterating your position detailing the breach of agreement and detail any more subsequent experiences. Then as above head to the small claims court.

If you get offered some compensation my personal advice would be to take it, even if it is not the full amount. The fact that they have offered you compensation and you have refused to take it would count in the company's favour in any claim. So best to take what's offered and make a new claim in the future if they do not take "reasonable actions" to avoid overcrowding.

Of course the first few claims will be hard but if one ends up at court and the commuter wins then like the bank charges that is a legal precedent which will pave the way for everyone to claim and companies will start paying up at the letter stage. They will also quite quickly start addressing capacity issues as it now hurting their profits.

At the moment this is an idea, but you never know it just might work. If anyone does try the above approach can you keep us up-to-date with any responses etc. I am quite happy to post any rail company responses, good or bad.

Health and Safety

The other approach I have thought about is claiming a fundamental breach of your health and safety if you are required to stand. However, anecdotally there seems to be no research which shows you are at higher risk in an overcrowded train. So this seems to be a non starter unless anyone knows of any research or can commission some.

Finally, I should also mention that I am not a regular commuter on trains, but have on occasion had to commute into London where the train has been totally rammed with people. So despite a good idea I am unable to follow up on it myself.

How to... compare salaries

Another how to article for thesalaryconverter.com

How to ... compare salaries

So you want to compare several different salaries. Let say you are looking at a number of jobs where the salaries are listed as £14,000 per annum, £250 per week, £1200 per month and £7.85 per hour.

Job Number	salary
1	£14000 per annum
2	£250 per week
3	£1200 per month
4	£7.85 per hour

You could sit down with a pen and paper, scratch your head any maybe find a way to compare them or you could let thesalaryconverter.com take the strain.

Step 1 is to decide what rate you feel most comfortable with, do you want everything converted into a per hour rate or an annual rate. Which is better for you, for most people they want to compare it to their existing salary so it would be whatever you know you current salary rate to be.

Let's say we have decided to convert everything to per hour rate.

So using the calculator we put in "14000" select "Annual" and press convert. Looking at the hourly rate it converts to £7.26.

Using the calculator again we put in "250" select "Weekly" and press convert. The hourly rate turns out to be £6.76.

Using the calculator for the third job we put in "1200" select "Monthly" and press convert. The hourly rate turns out to be £7.46.

We don't have to convert the last salary as it is already in per hour.

So we now have the following conversions:

Job Number	salary	Per hour conversion
1	£14000 per annum	£7.26
2	£250 per week	£6.76
3	£1200 per month	£7.46
4	£7.85 per hour	£7.85

It turns out that that the job number four is the best paid job but of course pay isn't may not be the only reason to take that job.

Try the online calculator for yourself.

The world at large and the humble red elastic band

The world at the moment is a world full of nightmares and bad news. The Chilean miners were the one ray of sunshine in what is going to be a dark winter ahead. Bomb threats and financial crisis, job and funding cuts.

Still in this new age of austerity I would like to talk about red elastic bands, specifically the ones that are left all over the UK by postpeople as they ping off a banded set of mail that is being delivered.

They are not hard to find and are free so very handy if you want an elastic band, but being so colourful they are slightly more exciting than an ordinary brown one. Thinking of those table top Christmas books that litter the book stores at this time of year I was thinking of bringing out a book entitled "101 uses for a postpersons bands". So far number one is to use it to hold down the flaps on an opened coffee bag as those sticky things never seem to work.

Of course if it were a paperclip I could trade it up for a house, for a postpersons band I think you would struggle to trade it up for a shed at least until I have found out the only 100 uses for it.

This random thought was bought to your by coffee from Java and some orange marmalade on oatmeal toast (girlfriends choice).

The Spending Review: A Personal Response

I am a public sector worker, I am not on the coalface but I hire the people that work on the coalface. I agree that cuts had to be made and they had to be deep. I agree that they had to cut the Public Sector borrowing requirement down to size but not eradicate it.

However, I have no doubt that the coalition has gone farther than it needed to, due to the Conservative ideology of smaller government.

I do believe that we needed to make an across the board cut of at least 10%. I don't believe any area should have been ring-fenced including however unpalatable the NHS and education. It is time to live within our means. A significant amount can be saved in the public sector through efficiency saving and getting rid of "nice-to-have" services that have built up in the last ten years without affecting core services. 10% is I believe a fair line in the sand.

I think the public sector pay freeze is right even though in real terms it means many poorly paid workers will find it much harder. Again given the extreme circumstances we find ourselves in I feel a pay freeze is preferable to loosing more jobs.

I think any additional spending should be frozen, what we don't have now we no longer need. A lot of commentators have compared the deficit to your own debt, when you have a debt you need to reduce it. I would compare the budget requirements to a household budget, when money is tight you don't spend it on new things or reduce spending on food to move to a bigger house. You make do with what you have got and so it is time to make do with what we have got. When the good times come again then we can look for new opportunities.

I would not reduce corporation tax, big business got us into this mess they can help us out of it. The argument that this is to stimulate growth is valid but public sector spending and public sectors workers also contribute to the economy.

I would not increase International development, again referring to the household budget, I like to give to charity but I don't give more than I can afford. As a country we may have a responsibility to the rest of the world and that is why I would not make any reduction in the budget for international development but it would be frozen.

I would not give a rise to the cabinet office for their "big society" work. "Big society" is a good idea but it doesn't not need that much money. I would prime the pump but not to the extent of £1.8 bn perhaps £0.5 bn would be more appropriate. Government cannot order you to volunteer but they can encourage you.

I would bring forward the pension age increase, it makes economic sense.

I would increase pension contributions, although I acknowledge it will be painful the current system is no longer viable for individuals, the country or the economy.

I would not freeze the science budget but as per all other areas cut it by the required 10%. Sorry scientists everyone needs to do more with less and no one can be protected under these circumstances.

I would get rid of trident, we have no need for a nuclear deterrent that we would never use saving us £20 bn that could be better spent elsewhere.

With some significant regret I would not expand the funding for energy and climate change projects. Again we cannot afford the "nice to do" stuff, when things improve they can go back on the agenda. For now the £2.9bn could be better spent elsewhere. I would if the figures allowed allocate £200m for the wind power projects and £50m for solar power and energy efficiency projects. This would help continue the push to a green and sustainable economy. In this area alone I feel we must move forward not back.

I would not scrap the index linking for rail travel, those without cars would be the hardest hit.

The NHS is tricky but I would enforce my golden rule of 10% cuts with a stipulation that savings must be made from efficiency saving and cutting red tape and not closing wards or hospitals. That may be very painful but I would also commit that when the good times come back the NHS would be the first in the queue and I would aim for funding increases to a level equivalent of 5% per year for each year they received no increase. Over the long term there would be no reduction in funding.

There are other areas I could go into but I think you can understand extrapolate my thoughts.

On one final note the average savings across the board for the government have been 19%. I have said across the board saving will be 10% with some significant extra savings made which should allow us to head towards the 19% target. In addition, I do not believe we need to totally eradicate the deficit. Some deficit is acceptable as long as it continues to reduce and does not get out of hand.

I recommend my plan to the house.

Watching the news: Another Auntie's Bloomer

A vaguely interesting article about people protesting against potential cuts in the Science sector.

However, for a bit of impossible science cue some random BBC sub-editor.

If you look at the caption to the second photograph:

Demonstrators were asked to wear science items such as a laboratory coat or telescope.

Can I just ask for my own piece of mind how do you wear a telescope, there doesn't seem to be any arm or leg holes. You cant really wear it as a hat, it keeps falling off. Perhaps people often wander the corridors at the BBC wearing a telescope.

Product Review :Powerpod Solar Phone Charger from Powerbee Ltd

Cross post from my renewables generation society blog.

This is a great little phone charger. I bought it in my continued quest to save energy.

Its about the size of an A6 sheet and you put in the light and it charges up. Then you can plug most mobile phones, digital cameras and any other small portable device in and it will happily charge it up.

The first thing to say is you don't need a lot of sun to charge it, so far it has charged on a non south facing windowsill on a grey autumn day, sitting on a shelf in the pool of light from a 50w halogen bulb and pretty much anywhere where there is a reasonable level of light. I suspect it will even charge at work under normal office lights, will have to check this out. Which basically means you should be able to get it to charge on the majority of days.

It worked for me straight out of the box, very easy to use, had the right adapter for my phone and charged it up easily just like it would if you plugged the phone into the mains.

On a cost benefit analysis it doesn't really stack up on pure energy savings alone. The considered opinion of the internet is that when charging a phone they suck up 4w of power, when already charged but still plugged into the phone 2w and when not plugged into a phone less than 0.1w.

In other words assuming that my phone is charged for 5 hours a week I would use just over 1kw over a year, so charging it by solar would save you approx 10-15p. So based on energy saving alone there is a payback time of 482 years.

However and this is a big one, your phone is solar powered so it is totally green, as it no longer uses electricity powered by fossil fuels. You can also take the charger with you and you don't need a plug, very useful if travelling. You can charge any device that uses 5, 5.5v or 9v and if you are using more than just a phone the cost savings improve.

If you currently have a car charger you can power your phone by attaching it the car window and you are not burning petrol to charge your phone.

Plus it is a very cool gadget.

I would definitely recommend it to everyone especially at the price of £24.11, you cant go wrong.

I give it the following scores:

Easy of use 5/5
Green Credentials 5/5
Cost / Benefit 3/5
Coolness 5/5
Overall 4.5/5

The last word on the matter is this text, I sent to my girlfriend:

This text was bought to you by the power of the sun. No fossil fuels were harmed in the making of this text.

thesalaryconverter.com: How to... work out your pro rata salary

I have been meaning to write some "how to" articles for thesalaryconverter.com one of my many projects.

There are some things the converter can do if you knows one or two tricks.

How to ... calculate a pro-rata salary

We have all seen jobs advertise at £23,000 per year pro rata to 22 hours. Which is great but it doesn't tell you what your actual salary is going to be and you need to work out whether that means you are better or worse off compared to your current salary.

Example

Take the pro rata salary and type in your salary as "23,000" but leave the hours as 37. Press the magic button and you get the conversions. Remember the hourly rate which is £11.92.

Go back to the main page and type in "11.92" set the period to hourly and type in the actual hours of your job which is "22".

Press the magic button and you can see that your annual salary will be £13,673.

If you knew you were earning £14,000 for a full time job you would now know you would only be slightly worse off if you took the new part time job.

Easy when you know how.

The maze project

I thought I would cross post an article to show what I am working on over at the maze project.

These are some designs and ideas for an indoor maze.

The first design I came up with was a series of interlinked rooms.



I had the idea that at the exit or entrance to each square (or room) in each doorway there would be a curtain that prevented you seeing what was beyond. So if you stood in each room all you would see in each one is the four curtains. I imagine the room to be plush red Victorian study type rooms all with exactly the same furniture, perhaps a round mahogany table in the centre, a dresser and a bookcase, all in exactly the same location with exactly the same stuff so whatever room you entered it had exactly the same layout. If you wanted to be really difficult you could give the room furniture a 2 or 4 fold symmetry. Of course if you wanted to be devilish you could change one item in each room, perhaps the book title of the third book on the third shelf would always be different, or there would be a silver spoon somewhere different in each room. Each room would not only be part of a larger maze but a sort of Sherlock Holmes esque spot the difference competition.

After this initial design I thought there was still lots of white space and really it could be a lot more of a complex maze.

Iteration 2 of the maze turned into this:



Now this is much more of a maze. Still the same curtains in each room but now when you leave the bright room you enter not just a corridor between rooms but a dark maze of twist and turns lit in shadows as you find your way to the next room. This also has dead ends in the maze so you can get lost, although once you learn the symmetry of the maze it becomes a lot easier.

To add to the darkness visitors to the maze would have torches as the dark areas are barely lit.

There are lots of other variants to the maze, I can imagine actors roaming the maze telling stories to visitors, different lighting effects both in the dark areas and the room. Although I would probably want to stick to the rooms as places of quiet sanctuary and only the dark areas being the scary part. I imagine in the darkness you could have scary footsteps, howls and thunder and lightening, it would be a fantastical yet scary place.

I have also had practical thoughts as well, the entrance would be in the bottom left and the exit in the top right, but an emergency escape route would be a corridor that runs all the way round the outside.

To leak or not to leak: 5 types of leaker

Another day, another leak. Goes nicely with cheese don't you know.On a more serious note who is behind a leak and what are their motivations.

First, I suppose is the "knight leaker". They do it because the public should know about this travesty / abomination, they are people of honour and integrity, a shining example to us all. I imagine them to be people who have campaigned internally for the information to be released and get frustrated enough, realise it will never come to light unless they take a stand and do it themselves. I imagine these people have true moral dilemmas over loyalty and accepting what the right thing to do is. I imagine the decision to leak wins over loyalty on the basis it is for the good of mankind.

An example of this type of leak is that a government department has failed to keep track of 50,000 immigrants and has not put in place any policy to resolve the issue. Or Revenues and Customers have notice 50,000 tax errors but are only chasing those that have underpaid.

Then there must be the "profit leaker", they have information that someone wants and is willing to pay catch for it. Psychologically they think they can easily get away with it or the profit outweighs the risk. They have no moral dilemmas and are motivated by pure hard cash which might get them a new car or a house in the country. They also think there is no victim and it is perfectly harmless.

These people might be giving away confidential information such as who has quoted what for a government tender or giving away personal details such as bank details they might have access to.

Next will be the "thrill seeker leaker", this small group purely like being the centre of attention, they might be the secretary's and assistant's who are underpaid and over worked. Yet now they control the information and can leak something important. Again they think it is harmless, at least at first, then they might display addictive tendencies, aching for just one more leak. They probably carry on until they get caught or just get too greedy and leak something too big to go unnoticed.

Then there is the "revenge leaker" these have information which put someone in a bad light. They can also twist the information to be out of context, perhaps by lifting quotes which in isolation look bad. This is a very politically motivated leak and might be to discredit a rival. I imagine there are some labour supporters in government departments who pass things to Labour so the Tories look bad.

Finally, there is the "false leaker", these are the government sponsored leaks to test public opinion. I would imagine 50% of leaks at least, have semi official approval because if they leak the document they can canvas public opinion for free and if there is unanimous disapproval of a leak the party involved can always go on record and say it was a "blue sky" discussion document that was drafted and circulated at a low level. The document was never meant for public consumption and was discarded at an early stage. Most importantly the government or other party has plausible deniability.

As a way to canvas public opinion for free you cant really fault it.

I think today's announcement is of the false leak variety. The government can canvas opinion and see how much support some of these bodies or organisations have. If the hordes start to advance on Downing street they can always deny there was ever any intention to abolish the organisations. Plausible deniability and smoke and mirrors, now its policy now its not.

Current projects

I thought I might mention some current projects that I am working on.

The Maze project

Plan A was to work for the establishment, build up a pension, marry the wife have, 2.4 kids and a dog. This site is about Plan B move to Somerset and build the maze project tourist attraction all about mazes.

If you can help make plan B a reality get in touch.

thesalaryconverter.com

Having started the salaryconverter.co.uk and made a success out of it I wanted to get a .com version and rewrite and redesign it for the American and international market. So this is it a new site with a crisp clear design where you can convert between your hourly, daily, weekly monthly and annual salary. At some point soon I am going to write some how-to's like how to work out you annual salary at different pro-rata hours. I am also working on a simple hourly to annual and annual to hourly widget that you can embed into any web page.

More project updates another time.

Audit Commission to be scrapped

The Government has announced that the audit commission will be scrapped. This is a public body that looks for savings and efficiencies in local government.

The functions that it provided will be replace by private sector organisations and consultants.

Well I don't know about you but I think it is the perfect time in this current economic climate for getting rid of the audit commission , after all its not as if we need to make savings and efficiencies. Plus what a good idea, lets pay consultants to do the work, but hang on doesn't the government always go on about how much consultants cost and waste money.

Some days you just dont know whether you live inside the insane asylum looking out or outside the insane asylum looking in. I am waiting for the announcement that white coats with straps are cheaper than suits because it wont be long before David Cameron and his cabinet are wearing them.

When will the madness stop, please don't let it go on for five years until the next election.

Some recent press releases from the audit commission to show what a complete waste of time and money they are:

Local government pensions in England
An information paper

29 July 2010

In our latest information paper, we examine the long-term affordability of the Local Government Pension Scheme, and look at steps that could be taken to put it on a better financial footing.

Sustaining value for money in the police service

20 July 2010

Together with Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and the Wales Audit Office, we have found that police in England and Wales could save up to £1 billion without reducing police availability.

Against the odds
Re-engaging young people in education, employment or training

7 July 2010

We reveal how councils need a new approach in getting to grips with the needs of their local teens, in order to make scarce resources work harder for those at greatest risk of long-term unemployment.

Making the most of frontline staff in the NHS

25 June 2010

Making better use of doctors and nurses in the NHS has the potential to make significant savings, provided that trusts understand the reasons for existing staffing variations on their wards.

I don't know about you but that is one organisation clearly not engaging with the state of the nation and looking for savings all over the place.

Please note - This is all sarcasm, of course we need the audit commission especially if like everything else the government is busy trying to get rid of they save more money than they cost.

The Government: three months on

I am sure I am not the only one who is thinking "same old Tories". Welcome to the wonderful world of slash and burn politics this year get over 25% off democracy. In my defence I only voted for the liberal democrats and although I have never voted tactically before, in the next election I am voting for whoever has the best chance of getting the Tories out. The only thing that the Tories have not yet mentioned is privatisation, but I am sure they are working on a plan somewhere.

Are you all looking forward to the double dip recession, no it is not a new flavour of coalition ice cream but its the roller coaster ahead for us on the economy.

According to David Cameron its all about the big society and communities joining together and they know best how to solve problems. Its beginning to feel like a more bullish American style of politics talking about big society and small government.

Lets take speed cameras which is a nice example of a slash and burn policy that is going to backfire. The government has cut funding for all the road safety partnerships who operate the speed cameras. The Road safety partnerships have basically folded as they cant generate money from tickets, wont get any more from the government and frankly the partners have better things to spend their very limited money on. So the cameras are switched off and that's that right?

Well no, first there is the road safety issue, at least some of these cameras were protecting junctions and schools making people slow down. Now they are gone the collisions will be at higher speeds and inevitably people will be seriously injured or in extreme cases will be killed. I hope anyone that has an accident at a junction/ or road previously covered by a speed camera sues the government for negligence. How ever much you hate speed cameras, speed kills and if people know they aren't going to be caught they will speed even more. Many already do even with speed cameras The outcome will be that accidents / deaths will increase and insurance premiums will go up.

The government in their infinite wisdom have cut funding for something that pays for itself and then some. All the money from speeding tickets goes back into government funds. So funds cut, cameras shut, income cut, more cuts needed. So rather than save money the government will now have to make up the shortfall from a falling speeding ticket income elsewhere, either cutting more services or raising taxes. Please can someone explain to me how this policy makes sense.

Plus if like me you keep to the speed limits you now have to pay for something which previously you could have avoided. Avoidance taxes are great because if you don't have the money or don't want to pay you can avoid it. If as a result of a drop in income from speeding tickets they have to raise income tax I can no longer avoid it.

Come back labour all is forgiven, Gordon Brown was kind of alright really...

I wont even go on about the bank profits...

swiftcover.com

Having recently asked a question about why my insurance has gone up and getting a patronising response I thought I would paste it up on the internet.

From Zephyrist to Swiftcover customer service:

Can someone please explain to me why my monthly insurance premium has risen by 34% this year.

I now have a years driving under my belt which must mean I am a safer driver and I haven't had any accidents this year. Yes, I did claim for a new windscreen which was damaged by the poor condition of the roads (pot holes) but that is not a fault of my driving and although I accept I wont get a no claims bonus this year I don't think I should be charged the equivalent of 3 new windscreens in higher premium charges.

Patronising answer from Swfitcover.com lack of customer service:

Dear Mr Caunt,

Thank you for your e-mail.

The reason for price increases is that the average cost of claims is increasing. This affects all UK car insurance companies.

These are some of the causes:

? Injury claims compensation is increasing.
? Increasing medical costs.
? Fewer cars are repairable.
? Parts are more expensive.

I hope this answers your query.

Commentary from Zephyrist

I haven't bothered replying, I don't see much point.

Conservative Liberals or Liberal Conservatives?

Is the new coalition government of the UK made up of Conservative Liberals or Liberal Conservatives. I personally think they are Liberal Conservatives. The question in my mind is if that judgement is based on what I believe to be their politics or the sometimes unnatural rules of the English Language.

In option 1 I think that the politics are generally Conservative yet tempered by liberalism hence Liberal Conservatives.

In option 2 the majority subject goes second and then the descriptive effector comes first hence Liberal Conservatives.

Of course with the power of the mighty google I can check out the most popular term.

Search term: Conservative liberals uk

About 8,430,000 results

Search term: Liberal Conservatives uk

About 8,390,000 results

Oh, a very narrow victory for Conservative liberals. Probably proves absolutely nothing but it was an interesting thought for the day.

New Scientist : Age of Denial

De Nile, not just a place in Egypt,sorry that is one of my favourite jokes, along with Dubai, no I was just window shopping. I can hear the groaning from here. Normal service resumes in 3...2...1...

This is commentary on a New Scientist Special Report, State of Denial, Volume 206 No 2760 15 May 2010 pp 35 - 45 by various writers including Michael Shermer, Michael Fitzpatrick, Jim Giles, Richard Littlemore, Debora MacKenzie.

Are you a denialist or a sceptic?

A sceptic should review all the available information and reserve judgement until they have reviewed the information. At that point they follow the evidence to its logical conclusion.

A denialist will make the judgement first and then bend the evidence to fit their case or even discard contradictory evidence to support an argument.

Of course not everything is so black and white there are many shades of grey, in all healthy debate people will choose evidence that supports their case but will generally not ignore evidence that is overwhelming against their argument.

This definition is very important to any discussion about the world being in a state of denial. Take any modern issue facing humanity like climate change / global warming. The information is so vast we cannot review and interpret it ourselves, scientists themselves are not public relations people so we have to rely on scientific commentators or journalists to interpret us for us. This relies on them to present the correct interpretation to us and even if they are presenting the correct interpretation they are often overshadowed by the opposing view who have a bigger marketing budget. In climate change oil companies have a bigger budget to present a view that supports their future business. This does not meed they are necessarily the evil empire but they have a lot to say and we are more likely to hear it first.

If I as an average man in the blogosphere wanted to completely investigate global warming then it would probably take at least a full year full time and about £50,000 and at the end of the year I would have just another book of the truth about global warming. Actually how much could I add to the debate? Only Science truly adds to the debate not commentary.

Of course being presented with all this commentary on global issues is it any wonder that some people are happy to deny the truth. I believe that denialists latch on to the most coherent or in your face argument and then accept supporting information denying any contradictory information. In a way we like to have a definitive opinion on an issue such as global warming. Having a view of "I just don't know" is uncomfortable if you are unable to do a complete review of the evidence or progress towards a definitive opinion.

The media although a force for good in reporting everything also confuses us because it constantly contradicts itself. Look at the basic media interview, whatever the person says the interviewer will ask the opposing question. This leads us to question everything and in a sense not to believe what is in front of us but look for the conspiracy or the hidden agenda. We are actually in a state of mistrust even to the point where we no longer trust ourselves.

To quote a song "All of these problems are in your head... you took something perfect and painted it red."

My Creative boost

One of my mini web projects which is very creative but very unpopular is my creative boost. Basically when you press the boost me! button it shows you a picture which inspires you or makes you think. Each picture is a little amuse bouche for the mind.

Here are some of the ones I have added recently:


Image 77 - What is your escape plan?

Image 76 - Naked

Image 75 - Reverse Pschology

Image 74 - Subliminal advertising

Image 73 - UK General Election Result

The 2010 General Election: So many issues they have tissues.

First off, in my long standing campaign to make the media declare there potential for bias I should mention that I voted Liberal Democrat and I voted against the Tory party and although I can think of no particular reason to hate Gordon Brown I cant wait to see the back of him.

Gordon Brown

Perhaps I should explain, nearly everyone in the country wants Gordon Brown out. I want him out but cant help wondering why I want him out. Having spent some time thinking about it, the best I could come up with was that I perceive him to be an arrogant bully. Yet is that opinion based on fact or based on a tissue of lies woven by the media. I submit to the jury the fact that during the election campaign the media changed their portrayal of him from a frowning worn character to a beaming arrogant idiot. Compare photographs of a year ago to photographs of today.Did this portrayal change my perceptions.

So what evidence do I have that he should go. Well actually he handled the economy reasonably well, we survived and I don't think any other party could have done much better, no matter what the opposition parties say. Then he didn't handle the expense fiasco very well either, but then no party or leader was blameless. He was responsible for the continued mess in Afghanistan but again it will always be a mess even under the next government.

I think the best thing I can say about him is we could do a lot worse and maybe that is what lead to the mixed result we had last week.


The Election Result

In my humble opinion no major party won, in fact you could say the only party that could declare a complete victory is the Green Party who finally got their first MP and can finally be a force for good in parliament rather than outside on the protest line.

The Conservative party may have got the most votes and seats but they did not get the landslide victory they wanted and the public judged them as not convincing (or perhaps trustworthy) enough to be put in power.

The Labour party lost seats and were unable to convince the electorate that they were the only safe pair of hands for a secure economy.

The Liberal Democrats had Clegg mania but in the end lost seats, failing to convince anyone they should be given more . Although in their defence I think voters got scared off at the last minute by talk of a "Hung" parliament. Vote Conservative or we are doomed! Doomed I say! Sorry got carried away a bit there.

So no party convinced everyone and we all voted for either local issues or something different. The wind of change was coming but for most of us it felt like a sigh.

The Electorate spoke

So no overall winner and the only majority coalition would be a Conservative / Liberal Democrat pact. However, in their arrogance the Conservatives seem to be refusing to offer much compromise and virtually making the offer of your either with us in government or you can rot on the back benches for another 70 years. The Liberal Democrats appear to be sticking to their principles and holding out for the best deal for their voters especially over electoral reform.

The Labour party in desperation offer everything to the Liberal Democrats to cling on to power although if I were the Labour Party I would give in and come back on a change agenda in five years. OK so Gordon Brown is finished but the Labour Party could come back stronger than ever especially as the next five years probably isn't going to end well for whoever is in power.

So the Liberal Democrats have started to talk to the Labour party to see if they can get a better deal for the people that voted for them. Even though they wont have a majority a Lib / Labour pact would still represent 15 million votes which is more than the last Labour government represented of 9. 5 million votes.

Personally although some people are accusing the Liberal Democrats of being arrogant king makers I would suggest that the Conservative party are the arrogant ones. If they are seriously committed to a stable and secure government then they should be working hard to work out a fair deal with the Liberal Democrats. We the electorate have asked you the Conservative Party to work with another party to form the next government. So get on with it otherwise at the very next election (which may come round a lot sooner than you think) you may find that the electorate may remember that the reason it all went wrong was because the Conservative were more interested in what was best for the party and themselves than what was best for the country.

The world is going to end with proportional representation or a hung parliament

At least that is what the media would like you to believe, conveniently ignoring the fact that many countries around the world have some form of proportional representation or collaborative governments working together in the best interests of the country. New Zealand is one such example.

The whole point of government is to act in the best interests of the people. Look at it this way, a party with a strong majority could be considered to be a form of dictatorship who can put through any laws they want. Surely a weak majority or a collaborative government is better, as they hopefully work in the best interests of the country as without the electorate's support they will be out. This could be strengthened if we all get the right to vote MPs out if we disagree with them, if the majority is single digits the balance of power could change on a monthly basis as MPs are voted in and out. Maybe that is not such a good idea after all, we don't really want to change prime ministers like we change our socks. We would be the laughing stock of the civilised world and even the uncivilised world come to that.

I personally feel positive about a hung parliament, as I would not support the Conservative party on their own or the Labour party on their own but perhaps a government tempered by the Liberal Democrats will on this occasion provide the middle of the road government and steady pair of hands we desperately need.

A final word on electoral reform

How can it be fair that a party such as the Liberal Democrats get 79% of Labour's vote count but only get 22% of their number of seats.

That is just not cricket. If it were in a book it would be called a conspiracy theory.

Politics: Some MPs Salaries in hourly rates

I thought I would put some salaries through the salary converter to see what hourly rate they get.

Members of Parliament get an annual salary of £65,738 which converts to an hourly rate of £34.07. Not including expenses mind you.

In 1911 MPs got £411 pounds per annum.

The Prime minster is entitled to claim £198,661 which coverts to an hourly rate of £102.97.

Cabinets ministers (and the speaker) are entitled to claim £145,992 which converts to an hourly rate of £75.41.

The Basic minimum wage quite possibly paid to some poor underling at the house of commons is £5.73. Although if you count some of the researchers that volunteer the lowest wage at the House of Commons is a whopping £0 per hour.

If you want to use my fantabulous salary converter yourself give it a whirl salaryconverter.co.uk.

Speculation: BA puts pressure on government?

This is pure speculation on my part but I was looking on flightradar24.com early this evening between 7 and 8 and I saw a few planes in British airspace. You can check out the call signs which gives you information on what the plane is.

I saw the Vancouver flight which was the first plane to land at Heathrow in a holding pattern over the isle of man. What were they waiting for, they knew Heathrow was closed when they set off and it was still closed so what is going on?

Strangely enough the airspace opened soon after and the plane landed.

Now my question is why did British Airways let planes fly towards Heathrow knowing that the airport was closed. Did British Airways force the government to open the airspace by saying they had 12 planes that were going to land at Heathrow regardless of what the government said? Did British Airways put the planes in a holding pattern while some last minute negotiations took place and the government gave in. After all if that was the case and the planes did land at Heathrow the government would have to prosecute the national flag carrier during a general election campaign and for what, landing planes despite a air movement restriction? Provided they landed safely which they did it would seem like a mis managed government storm in a tea cup and certainly not a vote winner.

Was British airspace opened on safety grounds or were British Airways up to something?

I shall stop speculating and conspiracy theory navel gazing and leave it up to you dear reader.

Ash and Political Clouds - Some thoughts

Well first of all its been a while, it has been a hectic couple of months and once you dont write for a week you get a bit of a fear factor about sitting down at a computer and downloading your thoughts onto a blank page. The ever problematical writers block. Never mind.

However, with all that is now going on in the world the great need to write overpowered my fears.

Political Clouds

So the UK made history on Thursday with the first live election debate. To be fair the chancellors debate was much better this one was just like the normal bickering that happens at prime minsters question time.

The production by ITV was fairly mediocre including the impressive gaff of turning the sound down on Gordon Brown for the first few seconds of his initial speech. Then you got the presenter barking at the candidates "Mr Clegg!, Mr Brown!" its almost begging for a rap remix. All you needed was Simon Cowell and the X factor judges to create a programme of typical itv trash. At any moment during the programme you were waiting for them to announce details of the phone / text vote.

The Liberal Democrats are the ones coming off best though, out of the two debates they have won both, in fact the chancellors debate was won even more convincingly that the prime minsters. Yet does this translate into a win for the liberal democrats. The situation is very complicated but it would appear not, one poll taken soon after the debate suggested they would get up to 40 more seats. In a hung parliment they would have a significant say but no overall majority. On a constituency basis the situation has many factors to consider one of which is whether the previous MP cheated their expenses. Obviously if they did their will be a vote swing away from the MP or the party but to who. This could be the party who does best in the tv debates rather than just the second place person. I believe all these factors make this particular election unlike any previous one. Elections are normally impossible to call and I would argue this is super impossible to call. We wont know who has won until they are standing outstide of Downing Street saying "I have won".

Another interesting thing is about what is the acceptable image for a UK Prime Minister. I would suggest that the UK population has now got it into its head that to be a succesful prime minster you have to be a Tony Blair clone, ie no more old men. Out of the three you have David Cameron and Nick Clegg who have the Tony Blair look and Gordon Brown who has the old man look. Hence we will elect one of the other two and not Gordon Brown. If Labour ditched Gordon Brown and got themselves a Tony Blair clone would there be a massive swing back to Labour.

Well the next debate is next week and we will see what that brings.

Note:For editorial reasons to allow the reader to determine potential bias I declare myself to be a Liberal Democrat supporter.

Ash Clouds

This is a great news story for TV because in reality there is no visible ash cloud over the UK. News editors are so used to having pictures that they are showing you the ash cloud coming out of the volcano which must have lead to some of the less intelligent members of society looking out of the window for this massive ash cloud. They will never see it because the ash cloud over the UK is invisible apart from a haze over the horizon or possibly the dust on cars etc.

So technically the pictures and the story are not quite matching up.

Anyway the ash cloud is coming down on a north west wind which at least until the wind changes means it is here to stay. In the UK we normally have south west or west winds which bring us warm damp weather on the gulf stream. The North wind predominating our weather system at the moment is also why we had the heavy snow fall earlier in the year.

So, we could have on and off international air travel for the entire summer. Based on that premise I was thinking that if I was a canny airplane operator as soon as there was a gap over Heathrow or the south east airports I would move all my planes to either Scottish, North West or South West airports which in my mind based on the last couple of days are likely to have more potential slots than the South East. If this happens, potentially over the long term could it affect the South East's status as the UK economic regional powerhouse.

As Nick Hewer off the Apprentice would say " I will leave it with you..."

Chris Moyles and the sixty piece orchestra

I like the new jingle called "morning movie", very classy. Only thing is Chris keeps talking all over it, only kidding Chris.

From the link above you can hear it in its full , building glory until the final salute of "The Chris Moyle's Show BBC Radio 1!".

Your doing a cracking job keep it up. Not that I can show my trend credentials by saying I am an avid listener to Radio 1, I have never liked the music even when I was a young un. I have always liked the talky bits of the Chris Moyle's show, he is a good laugh and occasionally he does play a song I can listen to and enjoy.

Crack on Chris and the team.

Snow watch update

Well some more snow around, it snowed nicely yesterday for about half an hour around 5 pm but didn't settle. It must have snowed again last night as when I went out to the car as there was a frosty sprinkling.

Possibly more snow towards the weekend, watch this space.

Post 400: Snow watch round up

Leg 4.

Well I got to Day 4 and stopped posting, mainly because after that the persistence of the snow and ice, it was all beginning to sap my strength and certainly the enjoyment factor. Driving everywhere in 2nd gear and being barely able to maintain speed and direction can get a bit tiresome after a while.

As far as I can remember it snowed on the 8th lightly giving a further 0.5 cm of snow around 6 - 7 in the evening.

Then it snowed heavily on the 13th January and it seemed to be a lot worse in Oxford. The snow was so bad that morning I am surprised the police did not say only travel if necessary. Everyone was trying to get into work and the worst of the snow hit the rush hour. It was not a good day, on the way to work I was bouncing off the curbs trying to maintain direction. The snow was falling heavily, the roads becoming impassible and I decided to turn around and go home while I still could.

Then by Thursday the ice rink roads had cleared again.

All the snow cleared by that weekend although some of the piles still haven't quite gone even now.

Leg 5 - 20 January 2010

A bit of a damp squib, yesterday there was some very wet snow which did kind of settle slightly on the grass but soon melted away in the rain.

Snow Watch 09/10 - Leg 4 Day 4

Well Day 4 and although the snow is lovely, having to drive to work is a nightmare.

In Oxfordshire they are being very sparing with the grit which means any local roads are still covered in snow / ice and not good to drive on at all. The difference can be seen driving north off the A34 onto the A41 towards Aylesbury.

A34 gritted and maintained by the Highways Agency perfect, no snow or slush able to made near normal speeds of about 50 mph. Both Lanes open. The A41 the other side of the M40 roundabout maintained by Oxfordshire County Council, one lane vaguely clear, one lane covered in snow passable by the brave and 4 x 4's. Its pretty pathetic really.

Other local roads even if they don't grit they could at least use a snow plough on them. There is almost 2-3 inches of compacted snow which is getting quite treacherous.

I know the arguments about it being a 1 in 40 year event, other areas are getting priority gritting etc etc. Surely there are contingency plans. Someone who set themselves up with a snowplough and a warehouse full of grit could make a lot of money at the moment.

Plan A,

• set up a massive southern counties Depot containing at least one months grit for the entire south.
  
• put in a rail terminal, get rid of the lorries and make it a lot easier to get the grit out and deliver to any point over the rail network.
  
• Seek alternative supplies, perhaps you don't have to use grit, what about sand, maybe even chalk?
  
• Organise volunteers to shovel, grit and snowplough. Everyone would muck in if it was organised. This goes back to the civil emergencies force I have talked about previously.
• Create laws making householders responsible for their own pavements and driveways.
• create a fleet of flame-thrower ice vehicle, which burns the ice off the road.
• Send 40 MP's on an all expenses paid trip to Sweden to find out how they do it (Joking - although this is the one thing most likely to happen).
  

Any more ideas to help the experts because clearly they need some?

On another subject by the look of the met office weather warnings the heavy snow possible for leg 5 has moved from Sunday / Monday to Saturday / Sunday. Apparently we can expect another 1 - 5 cm of snow.

Watch this space.

Snow Watch 09/10 - Leg 4 update

Wow leg 4 was a complete blast, it snowed for around 15 hours and we ended up with a good eleven inches of snow. I went wading in it early this morning, it was so much fun.

Thats the end of this leg unless you count when the snow gets very compacted, icy and very dangerous.

However leg 5 is already in the offing with a new early warning of heavy snow on Sunday. I somehow down the 11 inches will have vanished by then. If it keeps on coming we could end up with a Candadian style winter. I even saw tracks in the snow which proved somebody had been using snow chains.

Here are some snowy pictures from Chadster, North Oxfordshire.

Last night 05/01, 2000- 2300 about 3 inches of lying snow.























































Some Photos taken approx 1645 today 06/01 with approx 11 inches of lying snow

Leg 4 - Very Heavy Snowfal

This is the first time I have ever seen a flash warning for very heavy snow in my area.

& South East England: Hampshire Oxfordshire W Berkshire	Very Heavy Snowfall	2000 Tue 5	1100 Wed 6
	There is a high risk of an extreme weather event affecting parts of Southern England this evening and overnight. A period of exceptionally heavy snowfall is expected with accumulations of 15-30 cm and perhaps in excess of 40 cm. This is expected to cause widespread disruption to the transport network and could lead to problems with power supplies. The public are advised to take extreme care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads. Issued at: 1633 Tue 5 Jan

Extracted from the met office website at 1855 hrs on 05/01/10. Please check the website for further details as it may have been updated since then.

Chek it out "accumulations of 15-20 cm and perhaps in excess of 40cm", I so want to see what "excess of 40 cm" means, that is heading towards a foot and a half of snow which is half way up to my knees. I have having a snowtasm here.

To update on the history of snow in Oxfordshire for today. I was at work just north of Oxford and it started snowing lightly at 1530 hrs approx. This continued and become what can be described as light but persistent steady snow. Given that the ground was already frozen it was settling happy, even with just a few flakes. I left work to drive home when the ground was lightly covered with no sign of a let up. Better to be safe than sorry. Driving home was cool, no one told me that driving in snow is like being in star wars as the snow flakes come from a point of origin towards you. Driving home was a bit slow as a lot of people probably had the same idea as me and one or two people refused to go above 4o miles an hour. The roads were completely clear and I got home safely.

Since then it has continued being light but persistent and is slowly building up on the ground. On the ground now is approx 0.5 cm. It is expected to snow for at least the next twelve hours but at current fall rate I would only expect 3 - 5 cm. However the weather warning is in effect from 2000 hrs tonight and if the rate increases then accumulations of the sort they talk about in the weather warning above are very possible.

More updates as they come in to the snow desk here in Chadster, North Oxfordshire.

Snow Watch 2009/2010 leg 3

I think leg 2 was between the 21 - 25 of December when I was on holiday so I missed that observation and so will call this leg 3.

Leg 3 is a heavy dusting of snow observed now although it seems to only be a shower. Nothing was on the met office web site and we were even expecting it. A London snow watcher who happened to be visiting for the weekend has also confirmed the observation.

It has settled giving a light covering over the ground, may even go for a walk in a while.

It has been reported to the Met Office via their snow report page which seems not to recognise 2010 so I had to submit it as the 01/01/09. Modern technology eh?

More snow reports will undoubtedly follow in what seems to be shaping up to be a great snow season.