Cold snap with possible snow showers ahead

Now we are moving into the traditional snow season the met office is making an early forecast for snow showers across the UK on Monday and a moderate chance of a severe weather event for the east coast.

Barack Obama: History Beckons

As the weight of history begins to settle around the shoulders of the first African-American President, the world waits with anticipation. The world has had a long wait and it now expects the change that has been promised to be delivered.

UK Parallels

In the past other leaders in the world have been elected on a agenda of change. That election was described as:

"an asteroid hitting the planet and destroying practically all life on Earth"

- Professor Anthony King, Essex University professor of government. (Source:wikipedia)

The election was the UK 1997 general election, Tony Blair and "new labour" promised an end to boom and bust, an end to Tory misrule and a return to government for the people and by the people.

The election was won due to Tony's charisma and a modernisation change agenda. Ok so there is a vast difference between the UK and the US but there are interesting parallels that can be drawn.

In 2007 Tony Blair left office in disgrace, the change agenda almost forgotten, and with Tony hated for his part in the IRAQ war and the "war on terror". In 4 0r 8 years is it possible that Barack will be leaving office in disgrace?

A future crisis

At some point in the future the Obama Presidency will be faced with a domestic or international crisis which hits hard and develops fast. Inaction would result in death and destruction and decisions must be taken based on incomplete and potentially unverifiable data. In other words it will be very hard to make the right decisive decision and history will be left to judge if it is the right one.

What will happen if a major hurricane like Katrina visits the US or another major terrorist incident like 9 /11. History will judge how a president reacts to such crisis but history neglects to mentions the pressures and realities on the day.

President Obama faces an immense day to day challenge as President of the USA but these events will be where true leadership is needed.

Hope

The hopes of the US nation and the world are not unfounded. Today we o stand on the edge of the beginning of the longest journey for change. The journey will not be easy, it will not be completed in one lifetime but it will be started and it will be completed because the world is united and committed to the future.

The inaugural address

Obama spoke with a certain amount of humility, how often do you hear the president of the United States declare:

"Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age."

It is very un-American to admit a weakness but in these times of global economic crisis perhaps it would have been naive and unrealistic not to have recommended the fundamental weakness that exist in the previously blemish free capitalist dream.

"...and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet. "

Another reference to a much anticipated change in policy at the white house from an oil driven anti environment stance to sustainable development stance. This is definitely one issue where Obama and the US can make history. As one of the biggest CO2 emitters in the world the US has previously not engaged with environmental concerns always citing the threat and cost of reducing emissions against the health of the economy. At one point the US was even in the camp of believing that emissions would naturally reduce as technology improved. The US has not lead by example but with President Obama this is likely to change as Obama leads the world in the fight to save the environment.

"On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics. "

Whenever I read a statement like that the cynic in me takes over, every politician since the year dot, has trotted out worn out phrases, in America one favourite is proclaiming an end of bipartisan politics. So Barack may well seek to end the strangulation of politics but he will have a hard fight on his hands as people will very cynically return to type. This is not to underestimate his commitment and will to get the job done. I have high hopes but it needs to more than rhetoric.

I do like his speech, he does a great section of the speech talking about the people that have gone before and about why America is so great. From an American perspective it is a very passionate patriotic speak that really talks up the past, present and future of America.

Obama really does talk of a solid reform agenda in all aspects of American life and where America leads in areas such as the environment the world will naturally follow.

"They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint."

Another quote that resonates with humility and respect. A signal that what America has always know but never seemed to quite believe in, that is there are other means other than guns and war to settle differences. Perhaps Obama will invigorate world democracy through and with the UN with a fresh lead in how our difference can be resolved.

"We will not apologise for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defence, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you. "

As the world's last super power it was predictable that with any overture or expression of peaceful intention would have to be tempered by a reminder to those that think they make take advantage of this that if necessary America will fight back, America cannot be beaten and if necessary America will defeat any enemy that seeks combat.

"...but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all."

A reminder of the value to any country that those that choose to serve for the public good make one of the biggest contributions a person can make. A return to those values will no doubt help Obama to change the world for the betterment of all mankind.

One final sentiment which is going to echo round the globe as a new era of hope starts.

"So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have travelled. "

Snow Watch 08/09

Well no more weather warnings on the met office and mere hints at possible snow at some unspecified point during the week.

Avid Snow watchers will know that this means anything could happen but probably wont.

Snow Watch 08/09 Leg 4 ( 01/01 to 19/01 summary)

I am a bit behind this month so this is a catch up summary for snow events.

05/01/09 (sorry for mobile pictures, main camera ran out of battery power)


Aliens have landed in North Oxfordshire, they are hiding just round the corner. Those four lights are round the edge of the saucer estimated to be approx 30m across.
(ok maybe its street lights with a car just round the corner)







More evidence of snow in a north oxfordshire village.








07/01/09

There was a light dusting on the seventh which started to show up on the tarmac for a few minutes. Picture taken from a bus.








Week commencing 19 January 2009

Well on Thursday / Friday the met office had a yellow alert out for a possible severe snow event effecting the whole of England. As usual in cases of snow as it got closer to the day the threat diminished and there are currently no snow warning in force for England for this week. However, there is a good chance of some snow fall in the South of England this week, so keep your eyes peeled. Further updates will be posted... watch this space.

Clegg joins attack on VAT waste (BBC)

The political parties have taken every opportunity to criticise the Brown / Darling VAT plan. On the face of it you may think the whole thing is too small to make a difference but scientific studies have been done on whether it is better to give tax back as a big lump or as small amounts. I wrote about the research in 2008.

The VAT reduction is the equivalent of receiving lots of small amounts. Rather than save the money I just spend it again, injecting money back into the economy, in affect reducing my vat burden has given me more money to spend. This money will be spent across the whole economy saving jobs in all sectors until like capital investment / infrastructure projects which injects cash through a trickle down affect from some sectors into some other sectors.

I guess Nick Clegg has not read the research as he would want to spend the £12.5 bn on capital projects in schools and hospitals. A good idea and there is no reason why you cant also do this as well but it wont put money back into the economy through the pocket of every person in the UK and it does not reduce the pressure on the public at the time when we need all the help we can get.

The Lib Dems even tried to get the VAT reduction overturned. Sorry Mr Clegg although I usually support you I think the VAT reduction was a good innovative policy backed up by scientific research. Ultimatly it puts more money in my pocket and into all sectors of the economy which as I am sure you agree is a good thing.

You can say a lot about Gordon Brown and Alaister Darling but they do seem to know what they are doing with the economy and they are not afraid to try new and innnovative approaches.

The Review of 2008

Well what a year 2008 was, a grand total of 94 posts starting with the review of 2007 and ending with the great beaver escape.

With 94 posts I kept a nice solid average of 1.8 articles per week and although I was trying to get to 100 articles I didn't want to push it and I am very happy with the final result.

Snow watch continued through the early part of the year with lots of false starts and only the odd snow flake. However in November / December there were also some false starts making the 2008/09 season look slightly more promising.

In February I was woken from sleep by my first ever earth quake. In April I talked about my little theory of how really only one person is needed to decide a political election. In May one of my only two articles that month was an open letter to Steven Spielberg telling him how he could have done the new Indiana Jones movie Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) properly. In June there was a story about the first beaver dam in the UK.

In July I wrote about the rise of the urban shepherd. In August I wrote perhaps the best joke article of the year where I lampooned research about hearing pictures on the computer screen. In September I approached the entire range of subjects usually covered in my blogging including a playlet entitled "Single for Bicester Town". In October the credit crunch was really hitting hard and I wrote several articles about the capitalist economic model and the folly of chasing continuous growth. In November I wrote about the new tradition of the emergency Christmas box. Then finally in December just before Christmas I reviewed a heart warming best seller about mans best friend.

What a year it has been and what potential 2009 has for so much more.

Happy new year and have a good 2009.