Eagle

The eagle is over the yard arm. I repeat. The eagle is over the yard arm.

Early blast of Arctic air

It was a cold cold day today with weather flowing all the way down the UK straight from the Arctic.

What started as a subtle hint of sleet in the cold rain has turned to solid authenticated winter shows with the non vertical rain drops which can only be described as wet snow.

Nothing much to speak of but the rain is definitely a mix of rain/sleet and the odd bit of snow.

A very early start to the season with a snow flake before the end of October. Does this mean a cold snow filled season or just a normal winter?

Who knows what the winter will hold but as usual it will be watched with anticipation from Northern Oxfordshire, home of the Snow Watch.

Here's to a snowy season of 2008/09.

I have been thinking...

I have been thinking about one thing that will change the world. I have a spare £1 in my pocket and know that there are 60 million other people in the UK that have a spare £1.

Effectively then I have £60 million to make a small change to make the world a better place. I have £60 million because while some will give none a lot of people will give more.

So one small gesture to create a big gesture, to change the world.

If you expand that premise to the world there are 6.7 billion people so £6.7 billion to make an even bigger gesture.

The question is what could you invest £6.7 billion in, to really fundamentally change the world for the better for everyone.

£1 to change the world 6 billion reasons to do it.

Notes:

There is a part of me that wants to write in a post ironic modernism type of way after the above article "Zephyrist Aged 10 and a half". There is a certain idealistic naivety to the article that the entire population of the world could unite to make one change when often charities struggle to get just a few people to donate money.

There is another part of me that says the only people that have ever changed the world are the idealistic dreamers. They dare to dream the impossible, somehow and no one quite knows how, it becomes possible.

Leadership is about creating new realities, drawing people in and breaking down barriers. Great leaders dream both the dream and of how to make it a reality.

One thing I do know is that if you never think of something or never say it out loud you have strangled the dream at birth.

The ten and a half reference harks back to childhood where nothing is impossible, all the bad things don't exist and we can do anything if only we set our minds to it. Growing up is about finding out there are barriers whether in skill or talent or just what seems like luck. However much we want something sometimes it just wont happen.

At times like that it is easier to get cynical and look negatively at things. There is no point applying for that job, I wont even get an interview and they are probably not looking for someone like me. However, if you don't try, how do you really know you will fail. Even if you cant imagine the possibilities, all of them are out there.

Maybe I can't change the world all by myself but maybe if I keep generating ideas someone will pop along, pick it up and run with it.

Our only limitations are the limitations we impose on ourselves.

Palin, republicans, other animals and national forests (New Scientist)

In this weeks New Scientist two short news articles caught my eye.

"Alaska's beluga whales should be keeping their flippers crossed that Sarah Palin won't make it to the White House."

Apparently Sarah is not the whales best friend, she has made strenuous efforts to ensure that the beluga whales in the Cook Inlet in Alaska were not given enhanced protection and put on the endangered species list. She originally tried to claim there wasn't enough evidence to put them on the list but only managed to delay the listing for 6 months while a recount took place.

This was following on from the outrage she expressed when the polar bear was put on the endangered list. Alaska has even unsuccessfully sued for loss of revenue from oil and gas development resulting from putting the polar bear list.

So this year's Cruella De Vil 2008 award for a person most likely to have a stone heart when it comes to protecting the environment and clearly putting financial benefits above environmental concerns goes to Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin. Give it up for the wicked witch of the north!

In the interests of political balance Sarah may feel that the local economy of Alaska which is heavily dependant on the oil and gas industry should not be put last below animal welfare. Maybe she feels that in Alaska the rights of humans should be put first.

The other reason not to vote republican is because thanks to George Bush "roadless" areas of national forest totalling 230,000 square kilometres which is an area virtually the size of the UK is under threat from development such as phosphate mining or logging.

So if you care for the environment, really, don't even bother thinking about voting for Mcain and Palin.

The Sustainable Growth Development Party (SGDP)

The 22 point manifesto for a sustainable future.

1. We will only consume natural resources at a scientifically determined sustainable level.
2. We will only emit toxic/ waste gasses where necessary within predetermined sustainable levels.
3. Car use will be cut by 10% years down to sustainable levels.
4. Public transport will be increased by 15% each year.
5. Air use will be cut by 10% per year until a sustainable level is reached.
6. Income tax will be abolished.
7. Taxes will be based on inputs and outputs to the environment.i.e consumption of raw materials = inputs and emissions into environment = outputs.
8. Social projects for the poor will be funded by the tax system.
9. Inflation to remain below 1%
   
10. All Tax havens to be abolished.
11. Upper limit for income inequality. 1 to 30 across all sectors.
12. Banking system to have high capital / liquidity balances
13. Debt to be balanced by deposits.
14. More jobs in sustainable development.
15. More jobs in repair, recycling and maintenance.
    
16. More sustainable small businesses.
17. Reduced working week for all to 30 hours
18. Free trade between sustainable development countries.
19. Restricted trade with outsiders.
20. Restricted immigration and birth rate, population to be maintained at sustainable levels
21. Local goods for local shops in local markets.
22. New standards for product life, encourage long lasting products across all sectors.

This manifesto has been loosely derived from an article in New Scientist, 18 October 2008, "How we kicked our addiction to growth" pp 52-53.

It is very much rough thoughts and a starting point for further discussion. I may even pick a few points to expand on later, maybe development some specific policies for certain sectors such as transport.

Luckily I hit on a good name SGDP is a bit like GDP - gross domestic product. With a good name you can go places.

The Folly of Growth (New Scientist)

What I love about New Scientist is that they are not just a pure science magazine. With the recent credit crunch they ran a special issue on "The Folly of Growth - How to stop the economy killing the earth".

You see Capitalism is based on a false premise, that we must have continuous growth. The problem with that is with finite resources you cant have continuous growth as at some point resources run out, prices rise and you get shrinkage. This is the fundamental nature of boom and boost, the credit crunch and everything else that is wrong with the economy at the moment.

It means Gordon Brown is wrong, without infinite resources we cant beat the boom and bust cycle. All because of this one simple premise, which everyone can quite clearly see is wrong but no one wants to admit it because to do so would be to admit that capitalism which has worked for 200 years no longer works. A modern tale of the emperors new clothes.

It would suggest that Capitalism is just as flawed as Communism, in fact you could argue that it is more flawed than Communism as to solve the current credit crisis the governments had to move towards communism by part nationalising the banks and increasing government control of the banking system.

Of course with finite resources the logical economic system would be one that is based on efficient use of resources or more precisely sustainable development. So why do we not have a sustainable or steady-state economy already?

Well,such an economy would mean we would have to live within our own means, no more large debts, greatly reduced oil based travel, less hours worked, the redistribution of wealth from the poor, no benefits to saving and investing, and finally greater control over all aspects of our lives.

The transition period would be much harder as well, just think if tomorrow you were told you could no longer own a car, you had restrictions on the electronics you could buy and only 200 air miles for the year for your holidays. Ouch!

Of course there would be an upside, the end of consumerism, the end of boom and bust, less work, less stress, less inequality, living in harmony with nature rather than against it, better public transport, less pollution, stable prices, no income tax (tax would be on inputs and outputs to the environment), less road congestion, the end of global warming, the end of inflation, no more credit crunch, no more tax havens for the rich, stable population and much much more.

So lets look to the sustainable future and lets hope for the better tomorrow becoming reality.

I have to say all the articles in the new scientist special edition were great and are well worth reading, I may even post some more articles about sustainable development soon.

Credit Crunch Jokes (BBC)

This was a little nugget from the BBC. Amidst all the heavy news stories someone has collected all the jokes that readers have emailed in about the credit crunch.

My particular favourite is:

"Masked man holding a bank cashier up with a gun. Says: 'I don't want any money - I just want you to start lending to each other...
David, Cambridge, UK"

Post ironic modernism

I have invented a new art form, it is called post ironic modernism. I still have not quite worked out what it actually is or what constitutes post ironic modernism but I have a few examples.

Example 1 - Well Bupa, you did ask.


Example 2 - The alternative start to Love Actually, Debate Actually (if it helps imagine Hugh Grant saying it in the same style)

Whenever I get gloomy with the state of the world I think about the "Have your say" pages at the BBC news site. General opinion is starting to make out we live in a world of nutters and madness but I don't see that. It seems to me that the population of the UK is some 60 million people and even the most popular posts are recommended by only 600 people which suggests that intelligent debate does still go on, just not on the internet. Often its not particularly dignified or newsworthy but its always there. Fathers and sons, mothers and daughters, husbands and wives, boyfriends, girlfriends, old friends. When the stock markets were crashing as far as I know none of the phone calls from the people in the banks were messages of hate or revenge, they were message of thought and hope. If you look for it I've got a sneaky feeling you'll find that intellectual debate actually is all around

A solid prudent plan that I heartly recommend to the house

This is a good plan and an even better plan than the American plan. This plan doesn't buy so called 'toxic debt' and make it a government and therefore taxpayer liability. This plan is about investing in the banking industry and potentially even turning a profit in the coming years when the crisis lessons.

This plan should solve the immediate crisis and though it is likely we will suffer a recession it is likely to be shorter and shallower because of the positive action the government has taken. For all the whiners out there who say we shouldn't bail out the fat cats they should bear in mind that a broken banking system will lead to deep recession or a complete collapse in the economy. At its best it will mean high unemployment and high inflation, at its worst it could lead to hyper inflation, housing crashes and the extreme devaluation of the pound. Doing nothing was never an option.

A lot of people are saying how it is costing the taxpayer over £2000 per person. Well it actually isn't, the government will borrow the money either from existing reserves, or by selling government bonds etc which are always in demand. They could even cut spending to compensate or in the worst case the £2000 could be reclaimed off people via the tax system over the next ten years.

Plus don't forget tax can be raised from businesses too or that higher rate tax payers could be made to pay more, £2000 per person is literally only the total cost divided by the number of taxpayers. It is another virtually meaningless statistic.

The government is used to sudden demands on capital reserves, natural disasters cause immediate demands. You may find that some of the £500 bn has already been budgeted for in the budget forecasts, it would be bad financial planning by the government if they had not allowed for contigecy funding.

If the worst came to the absolute worst then the government could just print more money or even sell off gold reserves, although both could cause inflation and the devaluation of the pound.

The other good thing is that we are not kissing goodbye to the £500 bn, some £50 bn of the money will buy banking stock as preference shares which means the government will own part of the banks and will get any profit made in preference to other share holders. There is quite a reasonable possibility of the government making a profit, after all when have you ever know a bank like Lloyds making a loss even in these crazy times.

Some of the money, £250 bn is only available as guarantees for bank loans so that will only have to be handed over if a bank defaults on a loan, I think within the next three years and again as everyone keeps saying most of the banks are perfectly well capitalised and unlikely to default on reasonable loan terms, they just cant cope with the crazy loan rates they are being offered at the moment so cant re-finance their debt.

The short term loans, £200 bn, should by and large be repaid with interest. So in all cases there is a reasonable chance we will get the entire £500 bn back plus interest. Even if we don't it is completely unlikely that we will loose any kind of large amount. Even in the absolute worst case once the money comes back into the government it would be hard to imagine any scenario where the government had lost more than £50 bn. This is simply because none of the UK banks are at risk any more. All of the banks with the heavy mortgage exposure have either been nationalised or taken over. All the remaining banks are well capitalsed with a good balance sheet and assest book.

Of course the stock exchange disagrees but this may be simply because the traders are in a blind panic. Once the dust settles and they run out of steam things should start to return to normal. Of course one of the reasons the market is falling is because a lot of people are making money off selling and buyers are too scared to re - enter the market in any great numbers. Once the buyers feel the market has bottomed out they should buy again. In all likelihood if we have a couple of days of peace the volumes traded will decrease, the sellers wills stop selling and the buyers will re - enter.

The icing on the cake if you like is that any bank signing up for this money will have to sign up to an FSA code of practice of executive dividend, pay and bonus payments. The final element of structural reform which can only strengthen the banking system and the economy in the future.

In conclusion, Mr speaker this is a excellent plan and I heartily recommend it to the house.

Project 10 to the 100th

I saw this ages ago on the google home page, Google are running a competition, in their words:

"Project 10¹⁰⁰ is a call for ideas to change the world by helping as many people as possible."

I have entered one entitled:

"Help local people develop local sustainable energy projects through local resident run co-operatives."

You never know, one day it might just change the world.

If you have a world changing idea why not swing by google and submit it.