New Scientist : Age of Denial

De Nile, not just a place in Egypt,sorry that is one of my favourite jokes, along with Dubai, no I was just window shopping. I can hear the groaning from here. Normal service resumes in 3...2...1...

This is commentary on a New Scientist Special Report, State of Denial, Volume 206 No 2760 15 May 2010 pp 35 - 45 by various writers including Michael Shermer, Michael Fitzpatrick, Jim Giles, Richard Littlemore, Debora MacKenzie.

Are you a denialist or a sceptic?

A sceptic should review all the available information and reserve judgement until they have reviewed the information. At that point they follow the evidence to its logical conclusion.

A denialist will make the judgement first and then bend the evidence to fit their case or even discard contradictory evidence to support an argument.

Of course not everything is so black and white there are many shades of grey, in all healthy debate people will choose evidence that supports their case but will generally not ignore evidence that is overwhelming against their argument.

This definition is very important to any discussion about the world being in a state of denial. Take any modern issue facing humanity like climate change / global warming. The information is so vast we cannot review and interpret it ourselves, scientists themselves are not public relations people so we have to rely on scientific commentators or journalists to interpret us for us. This relies on them to present the correct interpretation to us and even if they are presenting the correct interpretation they are often overshadowed by the opposing view who have a bigger marketing budget. In climate change oil companies have a bigger budget to present a view that supports their future business. This does not meed they are necessarily the evil empire but they have a lot to say and we are more likely to hear it first.

If I as an average man in the blogosphere wanted to completely investigate global warming then it would probably take at least a full year full time and about £50,000 and at the end of the year I would have just another book of the truth about global warming. Actually how much could I add to the debate? Only Science truly adds to the debate not commentary.

Of course being presented with all this commentary on global issues is it any wonder that some people are happy to deny the truth. I believe that denialists latch on to the most coherent or in your face argument and then accept supporting information denying any contradictory information. In a way we like to have a definitive opinion on an issue such as global warming. Having a view of "I just don't know" is uncomfortable if you are unable to do a complete review of the evidence or progress towards a definitive opinion.

The media although a force for good in reporting everything also confuses us because it constantly contradicts itself. Look at the basic media interview, whatever the person says the interviewer will ask the opposing question. This leads us to question everything and in a sense not to believe what is in front of us but look for the conspiracy or the hidden agenda. We are actually in a state of mistrust even to the point where we no longer trust ourselves.

To quote a song "All of these problems are in your head... you took something perfect and painted it red."

My Creative boost

One of my mini web projects which is very creative but very unpopular is my creative boost. Basically when you press the boost me! button it shows you a picture which inspires you or makes you think. Each picture is a little amuse bouche for the mind.

Here are some of the ones I have added recently:


Image 77 - What is your escape plan?

Image 76 - Naked

Image 75 - Reverse Pschology

Image 74 - Subliminal advertising

Image 73 - UK General Election Result

The 2010 General Election: So many issues they have tissues.

First off, in my long standing campaign to make the media declare there potential for bias I should mention that I voted Liberal Democrat and I voted against the Tory party and although I can think of no particular reason to hate Gordon Brown I cant wait to see the back of him.

Gordon Brown

Perhaps I should explain, nearly everyone in the country wants Gordon Brown out. I want him out but cant help wondering why I want him out. Having spent some time thinking about it, the best I could come up with was that I perceive him to be an arrogant bully. Yet is that opinion based on fact or based on a tissue of lies woven by the media. I submit to the jury the fact that during the election campaign the media changed their portrayal of him from a frowning worn character to a beaming arrogant idiot. Compare photographs of a year ago to photographs of today.Did this portrayal change my perceptions.

So what evidence do I have that he should go. Well actually he handled the economy reasonably well, we survived and I don't think any other party could have done much better, no matter what the opposition parties say. Then he didn't handle the expense fiasco very well either, but then no party or leader was blameless. He was responsible for the continued mess in Afghanistan but again it will always be a mess even under the next government.

I think the best thing I can say about him is we could do a lot worse and maybe that is what lead to the mixed result we had last week.


The Election Result

In my humble opinion no major party won, in fact you could say the only party that could declare a complete victory is the Green Party who finally got their first MP and can finally be a force for good in parliament rather than outside on the protest line.

The Conservative party may have got the most votes and seats but they did not get the landslide victory they wanted and the public judged them as not convincing (or perhaps trustworthy) enough to be put in power.

The Labour party lost seats and were unable to convince the electorate that they were the only safe pair of hands for a secure economy.

The Liberal Democrats had Clegg mania but in the end lost seats, failing to convince anyone they should be given more . Although in their defence I think voters got scared off at the last minute by talk of a "Hung" parliament. Vote Conservative or we are doomed! Doomed I say! Sorry got carried away a bit there.

So no party convinced everyone and we all voted for either local issues or something different. The wind of change was coming but for most of us it felt like a sigh.

The Electorate spoke

So no overall winner and the only majority coalition would be a Conservative / Liberal Democrat pact. However, in their arrogance the Conservatives seem to be refusing to offer much compromise and virtually making the offer of your either with us in government or you can rot on the back benches for another 70 years. The Liberal Democrats appear to be sticking to their principles and holding out for the best deal for their voters especially over electoral reform.

The Labour party in desperation offer everything to the Liberal Democrats to cling on to power although if I were the Labour Party I would give in and come back on a change agenda in five years. OK so Gordon Brown is finished but the Labour Party could come back stronger than ever especially as the next five years probably isn't going to end well for whoever is in power.

So the Liberal Democrats have started to talk to the Labour party to see if they can get a better deal for the people that voted for them. Even though they wont have a majority a Lib / Labour pact would still represent 15 million votes which is more than the last Labour government represented of 9. 5 million votes.

Personally although some people are accusing the Liberal Democrats of being arrogant king makers I would suggest that the Conservative party are the arrogant ones. If they are seriously committed to a stable and secure government then they should be working hard to work out a fair deal with the Liberal Democrats. We the electorate have asked you the Conservative Party to work with another party to form the next government. So get on with it otherwise at the very next election (which may come round a lot sooner than you think) you may find that the electorate may remember that the reason it all went wrong was because the Conservative were more interested in what was best for the party and themselves than what was best for the country.

The world is going to end with proportional representation or a hung parliament

At least that is what the media would like you to believe, conveniently ignoring the fact that many countries around the world have some form of proportional representation or collaborative governments working together in the best interests of the country. New Zealand is one such example.

The whole point of government is to act in the best interests of the people. Look at it this way, a party with a strong majority could be considered to be a form of dictatorship who can put through any laws they want. Surely a weak majority or a collaborative government is better, as they hopefully work in the best interests of the country as without the electorate's support they will be out. This could be strengthened if we all get the right to vote MPs out if we disagree with them, if the majority is single digits the balance of power could change on a monthly basis as MPs are voted in and out. Maybe that is not such a good idea after all, we don't really want to change prime ministers like we change our socks. We would be the laughing stock of the civilised world and even the uncivilised world come to that.

I personally feel positive about a hung parliament, as I would not support the Conservative party on their own or the Labour party on their own but perhaps a government tempered by the Liberal Democrats will on this occasion provide the middle of the road government and steady pair of hands we desperately need.

A final word on electoral reform

How can it be fair that a party such as the Liberal Democrats get 79% of Labour's vote count but only get 22% of their number of seats.

That is just not cricket. If it were in a book it would be called a conspiracy theory.

Politics: Some MPs Salaries in hourly rates

I thought I would put some salaries through the salary converter to see what hourly rate they get.

Members of Parliament get an annual salary of £65,738 which converts to an hourly rate of £34.07. Not including expenses mind you.

In 1911 MPs got £411 pounds per annum.

The Prime minster is entitled to claim £198,661 which coverts to an hourly rate of £102.97.

Cabinets ministers (and the speaker) are entitled to claim £145,992 which converts to an hourly rate of £75.41.

The Basic minimum wage quite possibly paid to some poor underling at the house of commons is £5.73. Although if you count some of the researchers that volunteer the lowest wage at the House of Commons is a whopping £0 per hour.

If you want to use my fantabulous salary converter yourself give it a whirl salaryconverter.co.uk.

Speculation: BA puts pressure on government?

This is pure speculation on my part but I was looking on flightradar24.com early this evening between 7 and 8 and I saw a few planes in British airspace. You can check out the call signs which gives you information on what the plane is.

I saw the Vancouver flight which was the first plane to land at Heathrow in a holding pattern over the isle of man. What were they waiting for, they knew Heathrow was closed when they set off and it was still closed so what is going on?

Strangely enough the airspace opened soon after and the plane landed.

Now my question is why did British Airways let planes fly towards Heathrow knowing that the airport was closed. Did British Airways force the government to open the airspace by saying they had 12 planes that were going to land at Heathrow regardless of what the government said? Did British Airways put the planes in a holding pattern while some last minute negotiations took place and the government gave in. After all if that was the case and the planes did land at Heathrow the government would have to prosecute the national flag carrier during a general election campaign and for what, landing planes despite a air movement restriction? Provided they landed safely which they did it would seem like a mis managed government storm in a tea cup and certainly not a vote winner.

Was British airspace opened on safety grounds or were British Airways up to something?

I shall stop speculating and conspiracy theory navel gazing and leave it up to you dear reader.

Ash and Political Clouds - Some thoughts

Well first of all its been a while, it has been a hectic couple of months and once you dont write for a week you get a bit of a fear factor about sitting down at a computer and downloading your thoughts onto a blank page. The ever problematical writers block. Never mind.

However, with all that is now going on in the world the great need to write overpowered my fears.

Political Clouds

So the UK made history on Thursday with the first live election debate. To be fair the chancellors debate was much better this one was just like the normal bickering that happens at prime minsters question time.

The production by ITV was fairly mediocre including the impressive gaff of turning the sound down on Gordon Brown for the first few seconds of his initial speech. Then you got the presenter barking at the candidates "Mr Clegg!, Mr Brown!" its almost begging for a rap remix. All you needed was Simon Cowell and the X factor judges to create a programme of typical itv trash. At any moment during the programme you were waiting for them to announce details of the phone / text vote.

The Liberal Democrats are the ones coming off best though, out of the two debates they have won both, in fact the chancellors debate was won even more convincingly that the prime minsters. Yet does this translate into a win for the liberal democrats. The situation is very complicated but it would appear not, one poll taken soon after the debate suggested they would get up to 40 more seats. In a hung parliment they would have a significant say but no overall majority. On a constituency basis the situation has many factors to consider one of which is whether the previous MP cheated their expenses. Obviously if they did their will be a vote swing away from the MP or the party but to who. This could be the party who does best in the tv debates rather than just the second place person. I believe all these factors make this particular election unlike any previous one. Elections are normally impossible to call and I would argue this is super impossible to call. We wont know who has won until they are standing outstide of Downing Street saying "I have won".

Another interesting thing is about what is the acceptable image for a UK Prime Minister. I would suggest that the UK population has now got it into its head that to be a succesful prime minster you have to be a Tony Blair clone, ie no more old men. Out of the three you have David Cameron and Nick Clegg who have the Tony Blair look and Gordon Brown who has the old man look. Hence we will elect one of the other two and not Gordon Brown. If Labour ditched Gordon Brown and got themselves a Tony Blair clone would there be a massive swing back to Labour.

Well the next debate is next week and we will see what that brings.

Note:For editorial reasons to allow the reader to determine potential bias I declare myself to be a Liberal Democrat supporter.

Ash Clouds

This is a great news story for TV because in reality there is no visible ash cloud over the UK. News editors are so used to having pictures that they are showing you the ash cloud coming out of the volcano which must have lead to some of the less intelligent members of society looking out of the window for this massive ash cloud. They will never see it because the ash cloud over the UK is invisible apart from a haze over the horizon or possibly the dust on cars etc.

So technically the pictures and the story are not quite matching up.

Anyway the ash cloud is coming down on a north west wind which at least until the wind changes means it is here to stay. In the UK we normally have south west or west winds which bring us warm damp weather on the gulf stream. The North wind predominating our weather system at the moment is also why we had the heavy snow fall earlier in the year.

So, we could have on and off international air travel for the entire summer. Based on that premise I was thinking that if I was a canny airplane operator as soon as there was a gap over Heathrow or the south east airports I would move all my planes to either Scottish, North West or South West airports which in my mind based on the last couple of days are likely to have more potential slots than the South East. If this happens, potentially over the long term could it affect the South East's status as the UK economic regional powerhouse.

As Nick Hewer off the Apprentice would say " I will leave it with you..."

Chris Moyles and the sixty piece orchestra

I like the new jingle called "morning movie", very classy. Only thing is Chris keeps talking all over it, only kidding Chris.

From the link above you can hear it in its full , building glory until the final salute of "The Chris Moyle's Show BBC Radio 1!".

Your doing a cracking job keep it up. Not that I can show my trend credentials by saying I am an avid listener to Radio 1, I have never liked the music even when I was a young un. I have always liked the talky bits of the Chris Moyle's show, he is a good laugh and occasionally he does play a song I can listen to and enjoy.

Crack on Chris and the team.

Snow watch update

Well some more snow around, it snowed nicely yesterday for about half an hour around 5 pm but didn't settle. It must have snowed again last night as when I went out to the car as there was a frosty sprinkling.

Possibly more snow towards the weekend, watch this space.

Post 400: Snow watch round up

Leg 4.

Well I got to Day 4 and stopped posting, mainly because after that the persistence of the snow and ice, it was all beginning to sap my strength and certainly the enjoyment factor. Driving everywhere in 2nd gear and being barely able to maintain speed and direction can get a bit tiresome after a while.

As far as I can remember it snowed on the 8th lightly giving a further 0.5 cm of snow around 6 - 7 in the evening.

Then it snowed heavily on the 13th January and it seemed to be a lot worse in Oxford. The snow was so bad that morning I am surprised the police did not say only travel if necessary. Everyone was trying to get into work and the worst of the snow hit the rush hour. It was not a good day, on the way to work I was bouncing off the curbs trying to maintain direction. The snow was falling heavily, the roads becoming impassible and I decided to turn around and go home while I still could.

Then by Thursday the ice rink roads had cleared again.

All the snow cleared by that weekend although some of the piles still haven't quite gone even now.

Leg 5 - 20 January 2010

A bit of a damp squib, yesterday there was some very wet snow which did kind of settle slightly on the grass but soon melted away in the rain.

Snow Watch 09/10 - Leg 4 Day 4

Well Day 4 and although the snow is lovely, having to drive to work is a nightmare.

In Oxfordshire they are being very sparing with the grit which means any local roads are still covered in snow / ice and not good to drive on at all. The difference can be seen driving north off the A34 onto the A41 towards Aylesbury.

A34 gritted and maintained by the Highways Agency perfect, no snow or slush able to made near normal speeds of about 50 mph. Both Lanes open. The A41 the other side of the M40 roundabout maintained by Oxfordshire County Council, one lane vaguely clear, one lane covered in snow passable by the brave and 4 x 4's. Its pretty pathetic really.

Other local roads even if they don't grit they could at least use a snow plough on them. There is almost 2-3 inches of compacted snow which is getting quite treacherous.

I know the arguments about it being a 1 in 40 year event, other areas are getting priority gritting etc etc. Surely there are contingency plans. Someone who set themselves up with a snowplough and a warehouse full of grit could make a lot of money at the moment.

Plan A,

• set up a massive southern counties Depot containing at least one months grit for the entire south.
  
• put in a rail terminal, get rid of the lorries and make it a lot easier to get the grit out and deliver to any point over the rail network.
  
• Seek alternative supplies, perhaps you don't have to use grit, what about sand, maybe even chalk?
  
• Organise volunteers to shovel, grit and snowplough. Everyone would muck in if it was organised. This goes back to the civil emergencies force I have talked about previously.
• Create laws making householders responsible for their own pavements and driveways.
• create a fleet of flame-thrower ice vehicle, which burns the ice off the road.
• Send 40 MP's on an all expenses paid trip to Sweden to find out how they do it (Joking - although this is the one thing most likely to happen).
  

Any more ideas to help the experts because clearly they need some?

On another subject by the look of the met office weather warnings the heavy snow possible for leg 5 has moved from Sunday / Monday to Saturday / Sunday. Apparently we can expect another 1 - 5 cm of snow.

Watch this space.

Snow Watch 09/10 - Leg 4 update

Wow leg 4 was a complete blast, it snowed for around 15 hours and we ended up with a good eleven inches of snow. I went wading in it early this morning, it was so much fun.

Thats the end of this leg unless you count when the snow gets very compacted, icy and very dangerous.

However leg 5 is already in the offing with a new early warning of heavy snow on Sunday. I somehow down the 11 inches will have vanished by then. If it keeps on coming we could end up with a Candadian style winter. I even saw tracks in the snow which proved somebody had been using snow chains.

Here are some snowy pictures from Chadster, North Oxfordshire.

Last night 05/01, 2000- 2300 about 3 inches of lying snow.























































Some Photos taken approx 1645 today 06/01 with approx 11 inches of lying snow

Leg 4 - Very Heavy Snowfal

This is the first time I have ever seen a flash warning for very heavy snow in my area.

& South East England: Hampshire Oxfordshire W Berkshire	Very Heavy Snowfall	2000 Tue 5	1100 Wed 6
	There is a high risk of an extreme weather event affecting parts of Southern England this evening and overnight. A period of exceptionally heavy snowfall is expected with accumulations of 15-30 cm and perhaps in excess of 40 cm. This is expected to cause widespread disruption to the transport network and could lead to problems with power supplies. The public are advised to take extreme care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads. Issued at: 1633 Tue 5 Jan

Extracted from the met office website at 1855 hrs on 05/01/10. Please check the website for further details as it may have been updated since then.

Chek it out "accumulations of 15-20 cm and perhaps in excess of 40cm", I so want to see what "excess of 40 cm" means, that is heading towards a foot and a half of snow which is half way up to my knees. I have having a snowtasm here.

To update on the history of snow in Oxfordshire for today. I was at work just north of Oxford and it started snowing lightly at 1530 hrs approx. This continued and become what can be described as light but persistent steady snow. Given that the ground was already frozen it was settling happy, even with just a few flakes. I left work to drive home when the ground was lightly covered with no sign of a let up. Better to be safe than sorry. Driving home was cool, no one told me that driving in snow is like being in star wars as the snow flakes come from a point of origin towards you. Driving home was a bit slow as a lot of people probably had the same idea as me and one or two people refused to go above 4o miles an hour. The roads were completely clear and I got home safely.

Since then it has continued being light but persistent and is slowly building up on the ground. On the ground now is approx 0.5 cm. It is expected to snow for at least the next twelve hours but at current fall rate I would only expect 3 - 5 cm. However the weather warning is in effect from 2000 hrs tonight and if the rate increases then accumulations of the sort they talk about in the weather warning above are very possible.

More updates as they come in to the snow desk here in Chadster, North Oxfordshire.

Snow Watch 2009/2010 leg 3

I think leg 2 was between the 21 - 25 of December when I was on holiday so I missed that observation and so will call this leg 3.

Leg 3 is a heavy dusting of snow observed now although it seems to only be a shower. Nothing was on the met office web site and we were even expecting it. A London snow watcher who happened to be visiting for the weekend has also confirmed the observation.

It has settled giving a light covering over the ground, may even go for a walk in a while.

It has been reported to the Met Office via their snow report page which seems not to recognise 2010 so I had to submit it as the 01/01/09. Modern technology eh?

More snow reports will undoubtedly follow in what seems to be shaping up to be a great snow season.

The True meaning of Christmas

Its at this time of year after the annual watching of a version of "A Christmas Carol" (Patrick Stewart as scrooge and Richard E. Grant living up to what his middle initial may well stand for - Excellent), the odd mince pie and a glass of your favourite tipple that thoughts turn to what is the true spirit of Christmas.

I also feel that I should either be a member of the royal family or a member of the clergy or indeed a well respected member of the fourth estate, passing judgement on what Christmas should be.

It is in a sense what you make of it. What it is not is another day on which to compare ourselves to other people to determine whether our Christmas has been success. Long ago I worked out that it is the lot of most of us that we will never be the best at whatever we do, there will always be someone who can do it better. The consolation prize as it were is that I and you can do whatever it is our way and there is no one in this truly wonderful world who could do it quite the way we could.

That is the little bit of magic inside all of us and we can use that magic to create a Christmas that is magic to us. We may not have the biggest turkey, we may all start fighting by 10 am in the morning and we may not get anything we actually wanted for Christmas but at least it is our Christmas with our family and we all bought the magic.

Christmas will never be perfect however much money or even planning goes into it. Often it is the small inexpensive gestures that we remember in the new year. What presents do you remember from Christmas past?

One thing I love about Christmas is the carols, you cant beat a good sing along and it is one of the many things I look forward to each year. It doesn't matter whether you can sing or just shout, it is a spontaneous expression of joy and certainly clears the cobwebs from the lungs.

Tonight on Christmas Eve everyone is preparing for the big day looking forward to whatever is special for them. Father Christmas is criss crossing the sky delivering presents to the children in time for the dawn of Christmas day.

It is this spirit of giving and the belief of universal love and peace that is central to the more spiritual side of Christmas. On one day a year we think of loved ones and strangers and look to make the world a better place in the coming year.

It is a beautiful place this world of ours.

To all my readers, Merry Christmas to you and your families. The joys of the season to you and yours.

Snow Watch leg 1 part 2 update

Well nothing yet, I have had reports from reporters in Maidenhead, High Wycombe and London of snow showers during the day. In Oxfordshire the weather for the day has been wet and cold. The whitest stuff I have seen was last nights sleety hail.

However if the met office had big chuffing alarm bells they would be ring all over the shop. From tonight through tommorrow morning there is a weather warning out for Oxfordshire of "Be aware" with a moderate risk of severe weather. Rain showers will turn increasingly to snow. Accumulations of up to 5 cm are likely.

Call me a snow sceptic but I will wait and see what happens, at the moment it looks like leg 1 will be a damp squib.

Snow Watch 09/10 early start with a bit of unconfirmed light snow

Yes I do declare the Snow Watch 2009/2010 season open. This may be the last season in Chadster, North Oxfordshire as the snow watch base of operations may move HQ at some point next year.

Well I was driving home from work this evening in what can be best described as hailish sleet. It was white aand slightly sleety with a hint of hardness. I would not class it as snow as visibility remain good, there was no sign of floating flakes and snow generally does not make a noise when it hits the floor.

As is tradition in the first possible sighting of snow in a season we look back at the earliest recorded snowfall in Chadster.

The 2008/09 Season started on the 28 October with significant snowfall on January 19 2009.

The 2007/08 Season started on the 18 November with significant snowfall on April 06 2008.

So this season is a late start, does this mean we could be in for lots of heavy snow. Watch this space. This intrepid snow watch reporter will report live from Chadster throughout the season.

The met office currently has a "be aware" notice out for eastern counties for Thursday and Friday of this week. There is a moderate risk of severe weather with local accumulations of between 5 to 10 cm of snow.

Avid snow watchers will know that such an early warning can quickly turn into a warning for blizzard or just as equally into a day of sunshine and showers. Watch the skies.

How would the Twitter generation have coped with 9/11? (PC Pro blogger)

This is another interesting article by the PC pro blogger Barry Collins.

Barry is thinking of Sept 11, 2001 and how technology today would change how we would have heard about such an event now. There were few camera phones around in 2001 and social networking at least on the scales of twitter and face book has not yet taken off. There were still bulletin boards and other internet forums you could log on to which did much the same things but these were perhaps not as mainstream as twitter and facebook. Barry missess this point slightly and suggests there was no comparable internet media source.

What Barry imagines is that the minute the plane hit the first tower the internet would be awash with photos, tweets and status updates about the attack. The rumours would fly around the internet until the truth was lost. As Barry points out the established news media struggled to keep up with the unfolding crisis and was full of rumours that day.

Barry goes onto point out there would be no censoring of the material went out. Everything would go out onto the internet. Could you imagine if someone had been streaming live onto the internet from inside the twin towers. Now imagine if 100's of people were doing it. I recently saw a documentary which included lots of personal video footage from outside the twin towers, from streets or apartments. These were very raw and emotional even 8 years on. I am not sure I can imagine the horror of watching footage of someone trying to get down the stairs in the twin towers hearing a rumble from above and then a few seconds of film before the signal breaks. There is footage from camera crews that were close in to the towers that are already quite shocking to watch. Do we need such emotional scars on our public psyche? Are we immune to events reports in this fashion? Would uncensored material actually cause emotional distress on a grander scale, in the future could people who were not even there suffer post traumatic stress could a similar attack paralyse the entire population. As the gap between reality and virtual reality decreases could it feel like we were actually in the middle of the crisis ourselves rather than just a spectator.

I remember the tube attacks in London in 2005. It started off with a news article about delays on the underground due to an electricity supply problem and went on from there. I followed the story on the urban 75 forums where people who had been caught up in it started posting. It was faster, personal and more raw than the mainstream news.

One of the problems with citizen media is that often people will take footage on their mobile phone and not help. I remember a few years back hearing about a horrific crash where a family was killed and the police not only had to deal with the accident but deal with motorists going the other way slowing down and using their mobile phones to get footage of the accident. Is there a legitimate reason to take such footage or have we turned into ghouls looking to get the most raw uncensored footage on the internet to get the highest views on you tube ever? Have we forgotten about the human lives destroyed?

The Poundshop sketch

Man walks into a pound shop, grabs a shop assistant and points to a bowl?

Man: How much is that?
Shop assistant: One pound.
Man: Oh that's too expensive. How much for that one?
SA: That is one pound.
Man: What, is everything one pound in here?
SA: Yes
Man: How about I give you 50 p for that bowl.
SA: No, perhaps you should try the 50p shop down the road.
Man: Why how much would a bowl cost in there?

(Probably needs a bit of work but you get the idea.)

The Great Train Robbery by Michael Crichton

The book is one of those quirky books that I pick up from time to time. Michael Crichton is one of those great thriller writers that I enjoy, the majority of the time he hits the spot with a good solid thriller. This is a good old fashioned bank job set in the Victorian age robbing the Crimean gold off the Dover steam train. (wikipedia factual record)

Michael Crichton writes a gripping story loosely based on the facts woven into a good solid page turner.

Victorian workplace rules.

As I was going through the book there were some interesting snippits that I thought would be worth clipping.

Rules for Office Staff (early 1854)

1. Godliness, cleanliness and punctuality are the necessities of a good business.
2. The firm has rreduced the working day to the hours from 8.30 a.m. to 7 p.m.
3. Daily prayers will be held each morning in the main office. The clerical staff will be present.
4. Clothing will be of a sober nature. The clerical staff will not disport themselves in raiment of bright color.
5. A stove is provided for the benefit of the clerical staff. It is recommended that each member of the clerical staff brings 4 lbs of coal each day during cold weather.
6. No member of the clerical staff may leave the room without permission from Mr Roberts. The calls of nature are permitted and clerical staff may use the garden beyond the second gate. This area must be kept clean and in good order.
7. No talking is allowed during business hours.
8. The cravings of tobacco, wines or spirits is a human weakness, and as such is forbidden to the clerical staff.
9. Members of the clerical staff will provide their own pens.
10. The managers of the firm will expect a great rise in the output of work to compensate for these near Utopian Conditions.

It should be noted that this quote is from a work of fiction, there is no record whether Michael Crichton copied an original sheet of rules from a Victorian workplace or created a new fictional rule book.

I wonder if the government has thought or reinstating these "near Utopian conditions" for the current crop of bankers. A hundred years later nearly all of those rules have long been swept away, although to be fair if you want good stationary at work you still have to buy your own.

Everything can be found somewhere on the internet where everything means 99%

The all mighty google search these days means that anything no matter how obscure can be typed into its search box and before you know it you are surfing through thousands of pages about some obscure tiny subject.

However, every so often I run a search on google which reminds me that even given the infinite large number of pages of the internet I still cannot find the one page I want.

When I was young probably around 15 years ago I went to the Scilly Islands and at the time I found a print which I just had to buy. Cant remember how much it cost. My parents bought it for me and it has been one of my most prize possessions ever since especially as my parents had it framed for me.

So one evening I am looking at this modern print which is a picture of Bishop's rock lighthouse in the moonlight in oils by J Wilson Hepburn. I think to myself I could use the *awesome* power of the search engine to find out more about this artist and see if there are other prints I would like.

So I pop along to google and type in the words "J Wilson Hepburn".

Google Search for J Wilson Hepburn

All you get is a few hints that there are indeed originals that have been sold at auction for not very large amounts but no sign of any prints.

Lot 33 - J. Wilson Hepburn - oil on board A view of St Mawes.

Lot 40 - J. WILSON-HEPBURN (XX): An oil on artist's board of the Fish Market and harbour of Mevagissey.

Bonham's - J. Wilson Hepburn, Moonlit river scene, oil on canvas, signed, 60 x 90cm. £94.

Just hints of things and the links don't really give you any further information.

Of course in searching it doesn't help that the surname is similar to "Audrey Hepburn"

Here is what I know I think he is a Cornish artist that painted in oils, I suspect in the late 1800's. Other than that I know very little.

If anyone could give me more information I would be very interested. If anyone knows of any prints or originals for sale I would at the very least be interested in hearing more. If anyone has the original of my print which I would guess is somewhere in the Scilly Isles I would be extremely interested.

Until I get this information and can post it on my blog I am afraid we must conclude that as of now the world is still larger and contains more information than the internet.

Did Stephen Fry and Twitter really score a victory for free speech? (PCPro)

This was a very interesting blog article from the PCpro writer Barry Collins. Nearly everyone will have heard about the parliamentary question that was subject to a gagging order. Depending on who you listen to Twitter and Stepehn Fry in a blow for democracy and free speech spread it all over the internet, proving that you cant gag free speech or perhaps proving the "twittering classes" are willing to break the law.

The article basically points out while everyone is giving each other high five's in getting information which should have been in the public domain out, what happens when information that shouldn't be released is broadcast on twitter.

Twitter is a public lynching waiting to happen. Technology has allowed us to move on from throwing stones to throwing tweets, we can all act now on rumours and gossip and devolve ourselves of responsibility to join the mob mentality. How long before a name is given out on twitter in a horrific criminal case which leads to an assault or worse a public lynching. How about national security information which jeopardises security or criminal cases. Twitter is not above the law and people that tweet should be aware that they may be breaking the law by releasing confidential information. The consequences of a major breach in security or information released which lead to damage or injury would be dealt with seriously by the law courts.

Mob mentality has always been a problem but with lightening fast technology where rumours are trusted more than official news organisations mobs can easily be mislead or mis-guided and dire consequences may arise. We have yet to see the potential of twitter to cause mayhem, lets hope we are prepared when the time comes.

With Freedom of speech comes responsibility, the responsibility of knowing when to talk and when to shut up.

18 monkeys sitting at a keyboard

I have written a perl script that simulates eighteen monkeys each hitting one key either a letter of the alphabet or space key. They are trying to write the line " To be or not to be".

"Why?" I hear half the world scream, "For goodness sake, why? Think of the children!". Sorry slipped into a Simpson moment there.

Anyway I have written this totally geeky pointless script just because I can. It was a personal challenge to myself, can a mild mannered recruitment officer who knows a bit about perl write a script that will achieve this.

To explain the mechanics, I create a sequence of 18 random numbers between 1 and 27. Convert that all into letters or a space, then compare it to the text I want, calculate the percentage match and repeat until I get a decent match. For the maths bods out there the actual odds of hitting a perfect sequence are 18 to the power 27. In other words a really really really large number.

So anyway tonight I have been running batches of 2000000 iterations and outputting to a file every combination with a match over 7 letters.

Here are the results so far:

The highest ever match is 9 letters off a run of 200000000 iterations which just goes to show hitting the full eighteen letters could be a bit of a miracle. That run took 3 hours to do.

The interesting thing is that 8/9 letter is starting to make almost recognisable word patterns:

6533243 TULBEHXRBGMK EO BE 9
7596871 DO SJOR FOOUHU BO 8
15070898 AOSBH RQMNLT GO AA 8
41948431 TOPKGJCE ROTSTOJSE 8
83387651 TOEBOYXY UKT HP FE 8
131295542 NO BGVIR TPTGTX MB 8
123724196 TOIBXRY BENT TOWTE 8

I should explain the first number is the iteration, then we have the code sequence and finally the number of matching letters.

Ok so most of them still sound like the Russian or Japanese version of "to be or not to be" but bits are beginning to make sense.

Next experiment reduce the number of letters in the phrase to see if we can hit the high matches quicker. Maybe I will try "Out damned spot" but really I need something even shorter.

Andrew Marr and Journalism

I have been reading Andrew Marr's Book entitled "My trade" off and on for the last year. For those of you who are unaware he is a British political journalist.

His book is all about journalism and although I haven't read much of it one of the quotes in his history of journalism resonated through the years with some of the points I have expanded on in the relationship between the press and government.

W. T. Stead was a Victorian editor described by Andrew as a bearded, blazing eyed and riotously sexual editor of among others the Northern Echo and The Pall Mall Gazette. In 1886 he had this to say about what he called government by journalism:

I am but a comparatively young journalist, but I have seen Cabinets upset, ministers driven into retirement, laws repealed, great social reform initiated, Bills transformed, estimates remodelled, programmes modified, Acts passed, general nominated, governors appointed, armies sent hither and thither, ware proclaimed and war averted, by the agency of newspapers.

-W. T. Stead 1886

That was in 1886 when the general populace still respected government and politicians. One can only surmise that since then the press have become more powerful, where today entire elections can be won or lost on the front page of the Sun newspaper(1992 general election - election day headline "If Kinnock wins today, will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights.").

Next year there will be a general election, which way will the press vote?

Which brings me onto Andrew Marr himself and how he asked Prime Minister Gordon Brown whether he used prescription painkillers in a recent interview. I thought I would analyse this question and the journalism behind it.

Before we get to the question itself we have to decide whether it is correct to ask a question about the prime ministers health. In the 'for'corner we should be entitled to ask any question if it impacts on his ability to do the job, as in the extreme he could take this country to war. Although you could argue that he could not take this country to war by himself and therefore his individual health is immaterial.

In the 'against' corner, his personal life is his own business, just because he is prime minister doesn't mean that every single detail of his life should be public knowledge. After all would we want to know that the prime minister is constipated and might not be fully concentrating in a cabinet meeting? There is also the argument that why should we expect our politicians to be supermen without any fault. What do we want a human being or a robot?

There is an implied contract of trust between the electorate and the government that the prime minister is fit to govern at any time. Even if this contract is weakened should the press act as final arbiter?

I think it can be safely assumed that asking the simple question are you fit, well and capable to carry out your role as prime minister is a valid question. However this is not what Andrew Marr asked, he asked:

"something everybody has been talking about in the Westminster village... A lot of people in this country use prescription painkillers and pills to help them get through. Are you one of them?"

Some technical points first. The "Westminster village" is what most of us would describe as the rumour mill. The use of the word "use" which is close to drug user which had many socio - negative connotations. You use heroin but you take medication.

"Help them get through" - again suggesting that people aren't coping and giving the question an overall negative tone.

So did Andrew ask about the prime ministers health or did he imply that the prime minister was not competent to do the job?

In my opinion he chose to ask this question on his own authority because he wanted to imply that Gordon Brown was taking pain killers which meant that he was not fully capable of carrying out his duties.

It could also be described as a leading question. In answering "Yes" the prime minister would confirm much more than just that he took prescription drugs. Even if he went on to explain , it would be the initial yes that was shown on the Six O'clock news probably with an image of Gordon looking really tired from 2002 to emphasise how pain killers had effected him. Again the picture would imply a negative view of Gordon Brown. All of the negativity would be implied and may distort the reality of the situation.

After Gordon had politely told Andrew it was none of his business Andrew asked the question again. Perhaps not your finest hour Andrew.

In a guardian article interestingly a BBC spokesman is quoted as saying:

"Andrew was asking a legitimate question about the health of the leader of the country."

Was he? Or was he implying that Gordon Brown was unfit to hold office because he took pain killers? Surely if he was in pain we should be more worried if he didn't take painkillers?

References:

Andrew Marr: I have no intention of apologising over Brown question (guardian)
'I do not roll over,' says Brown(BBC)
1992 General election (wikipedia)

Asteroid attack: How would we cope? (New Scientist)

When an email like that hits your in-box you cant help but race across the desktop with your mouse pointer and click it.

The answer apparently if you want the short answer is "Not very well".

Then the article is full of more questions such as

"Should we panic?"

A. Not really, a killer impact strike would only happen once every 2000 years and the odds of hitting a populated area are even smaller.

"Can we nuke it?"

A. No, not unless we had several years warning. At the moment our early warning systems just aren't good enough. One asteroid last year was only detected 20 hours before impact. 2008 TC3 detonated over Sudan and was too small to do any damage anyway but millions of asteroids that could do some damage are out there and we are not yet tracking all of them.

The exciting questions over with, I can tell you about what the article is actually about. The US Air Force ran an exercise in 2008 where they played out a scenario where a killer asteroid was heading straight for earth. Straight out of Hollywood there were two parts of the asteroid, one heading for a splash down in the Atlantic ocean on the west coast of America and the other heading for Washington DC. Cut to people screaming and running past notable Washington monuments and running past electrical shop windows with President Obama on screen urging people to remain calm all the way via satellite from Air Force One currently flying over New Zealand.

Back to the studio where CNN have bought in whoever answered the phone first, to pretend to be an expert on asteroids / politics. "Its all the governments fault they should have seen it coming years ago. They cut funding into asteroid destruction technologies and invested in free health care for all. What were they thinking?"

Sorry, digressed suddenly there, too much thinking about life according to a Hollywood movie script.

Commenting on the scenario outcome which demonstrated that the US was woefully unprepared for such a disaster Peter Garreston (organiser) had this to say:

"As a taxpayer, I would appreciate my air force taking a look at something that would be certainly as bad as nuclear terrorism in a city, and potentially a civilisation-ending event."

He wasn't just talking about the X-factor rejects from the first round who with their off key singing destroyed several world heritage sites yesterday.

Simon Cowell responded with these comments directly to the planet killer asteroid:

"I am just not convinced by your planet killing performance, I just didn't feel it. Your just too small this year, you need to come back next year... Danni Yes or no?"

Normal service is being resumed ... please hold while we connect you to sanity.

US Air force 0 - Asteroid 1. Final Score.

Anyway, moving on. Having pretty much determined that being able to avert disaster was pretty much impossible the assembled team turned to disaster management. Somebody had forgotten to get coffee from the supermarket and everybody knows you cant deal with a disaster without some serious black coffee.

The primary concern in the disaster management scenario was to stop the public who were in the path of the asteroid from panicking. In my opinion the only way you could stop the public panicking is to shut the media up. You only have to look back to the credit crunch to see how good the media are at proclaiming the end is nigh. Their doom scenarios would cause the public to panic within about three seconds although you might have 30 seconds of grace while they come up with a suitable two word caption for the screen.

Cue movie voice. "It was a time of darkness, the media had the biggest story ever, the story to end all stories, the story to end it all..."

A bland boardroom is shown on screen with a number of men and women in power suits.

Random media type 1: Yes, but what's the caption.
RMT2: How about "earth crunch"
RMT4: Sounds too much like "credit crunch", crunch doesn't spread fear as much as it used to.
RMT3: How about "Armageddon"
RMT2: No, that is only understandable by the AB1 demographic and its only one word.
RMT1: How about "Fatal Friday"
RMT3: No sounds like another stock market crash.
RMT2: How about"End of the World, as we know it"
RMT1: Too long it will appear over the station logo.
RMT4: How about "We're screwed"
RMT1: Well its direct, two words, but it just doesn't have any zing.
RMT3: How about "Rocky: The final return".
RMT2: No, that's already been copyrighted for the movie of the disaster.
RMT1: I know, how about: "Mankind's Annihilation"
RMT2: Works for me.
RMT4: Excellent.
RMT1: OK that's agreed, now lets talk sponsorship, are we thinking Coke or Nike...

Back in the reality created by the US Air Force which one can only assume didn't include a simulation of the media machine.

Timothy Spahr, director of the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts who has also probably been watching two many Hollywood blockbusters suggested this scenario.

"I'm picturing people panicking and driving the wrong way on the freeway, screaming 'Oh my god, it's going to kill us!'"

We are not just talking republican policies on health care here either (little current affairs reference for my American audience). In true Hollywood fashion he forgot to mention the two teenage virgins by the side of the road getting busy as they certainly don't want to die a virgin. I am thinking American Pie meets Armageddon, now that would be worth going to see.

The outcome of the exercise was a realisation that there is no asteroid emergency plan beta 6 and Bruce Willis is not on 24/7 asteroid destruction call out. However the earlier the warning the better the response would be.

Which brings us nicely on to early warning systems. The good news is that two out of the three early warning systems are in Arizona where during the months of July and September you cant see a thing because of the cloud cover. Excellent, I can see that makes everyone feel better. Lets hope no asteroids turn up at that time of the year, perhaps they will just leave a calling card and come back later.

Even better news, the US Air Force have imagined a scenario where an asteroid could start world war 3: The final showdown. If an asteroid detonated over a politically sensitive area like the middle east then it might be interpreted as a nuclear attack and governments may retaliate.

Of course NASA has put a lot of money into funding projects to track potential planet killers but in a selfish approach they only focus on the Northern Hemisphere which is perhaps a bit short sighted as a planet killer in the Southern Hemisphere could still destroy all life on the planet as we know it.

NASA and the European space agencies are working on it though, so hopefully things will improve in the future.

NASA are also working on an Asteroid ship which will help defend the planet. Exclusively, here now I can reveal the working prototype:

Intertwined colour lines: a fascination part 2

The spiders web that is Oxfords road network.

Intertwined colour lines: a fascination

I find myself strangely fascinated by coloured lines intertwined together, especially if it is a pattern based on something man made or familiar to me.

This is a hand drawn colour line copy of a 1914 clearing house railway junction diagram of the area around clapham junction (the big confusing area over on the left). If you want to you can compare it to the original over here on wikipedia.

Maybe I have discovered a whole new art form with which you can experiment with on any map or satelitte photgraphy, just drawing designs. Today the web tommorrow Tate Britain.

Misconstruing BBC news article part 2

Wireless power system shown off

Well surely someone should have turned it on for the demonstration as

Wireless power system shown on

would have more effectively demonstrated its capabilities.

I am probably the only one in the universe that finds that even slightly funny... I shall get my coat.

State of Fear by Michael Crichton

I re-read this book recently, it is a work of fiction which introduces the premise / theory that the environmental lobby is just another method by the establishment to keep us in a perpetual state of fear, following on from the cold war came global warming. This state of fear creates spending and political power but the book using scientific references to support the fictional plot suggests that global warming is at best inconclusive and suggests that we are yet to learn so much about are environment that any theory about global warming is little more than a guess.

However as the character in the book suggests just because you don't agree with global warming doesn't mean that you don't want pollution controls and CO2 reduction. I have to say Michael Crichton creates a compelling argument. One of the best simple comparisons is that despite all the investment and technology we cannot accurately predict the weather beyond 5-10 days so how can we consider a prediction for a 100 years hence to be accurate.

There are loads of other rational arguments in the book but with the alternative view I find it difficult to believe that global warming is a global conspiracy. I suppose one of the problems is that until it happens we wont know whether everyone is right or wrong.

The precautionary principle also mentioned in the book means that if there is the slightest change of the catastrophic scenario occurring then we should not take the action that would cause it. Therefore the precautionary principle would suggest that because scientists have found a potential risk we should do everything to eliminate it. However you could use the precautionary principle to say we should live 50 ft underground all the time because every time you go outside there is a risk of a plane falling on your head.

Then I reach the thought in my head that says "Do I believe in global warming?". Then my second thoughts kicks in and realises the framing of the question suggests there is a belief factor rather than relying on cold, hard, undeniable facts and truths.

"Do I believe in doing something to protect the environment?". No facts required this time but how do you protect an environment, again it raises in the book that you can only manage an environment and we still don't know how to manage land to protect something. The ecosystems around us are ever changing we cant protect and preserve but we can manage it in a direction. In the books it talks about nature not having a balance but oscillating between different factors as species rise and fall.

Finally the book finishes with the premise that they should set up a new environmental group which basically looks for problems and fixes it, so take land management, you accept you do not know how to do it, so you take 8 similar parcels of land, have a different management policy in each one. Try things out get them evaluated by outside consultants and by trial and error find out what land management policies work and don't work.

One character talks about scientific journal authors talking about simulations as if they were real world data and suggest that such articles should be labelled "Warning: Computer Simulation - May be erroneous and unverifiable" and then suggests a label for newspaper articles as well "Warning speculation - may be fact free".

I have long argued about labels for news articles, some kind of evaluation of the source:

How about this the Zephryist- Morton coding
(the highest number would be taken in each code)

8 - Video evidence
7 - Sound evidence
6 - Multiple eye witness accounts
5 - conflicting eye witness accounts with some commonality
4 - Single eye witness account
3 - written evidence
2 - Multiple eye witness conflicting accounts
1 - 2nd hand source no eye witness accounts
0 - opinion only no verifiable witness 1 or second hand

4 - Known as giving previously reliable evidence
3 - No previous record of evidence
2 - Questionable record of giving reliable evidence
1 - interpretation of known facts with own opinion on conclusions or extrapolation
0 - own opinion - few known facts with open interpretation.

3 - Expert / professional in field
2 - Media expert in field
1 - Amateur in field
0 - Unknown knowledge status in field.

So with this you could evaluate any news source such as the BBC news website which would be a 8 by 4 by 2 site, one of the highest rating with video evidence, known to give reliable evidence in the past, and with media experts.

You could also rate a blog, my highest rating would be a 4 by 4 by 1 unless you felt I was merely giving opinion where my blog would be rated 4 by 1 by 1. Of course with a fully functioning system the ratings would be given by peers.

The beauty of the system is that the lower the number the more questionable the source, it would help any reader instantly be able to separate fact from fiction without having to read pages of previous articles and compare them with other sources to determine the reliability, with a peer reviewed system other people have already done the leg work.

You could go further and break down the rating system more by breaking each section into a series of questions almost an acid test of reliability.

I may return to this some day or like many other posts on my blog it may just be a random thought that sits on the shelf collecting dust.

The misconstruing BBC news article game

I may have invented a new game. All you need is to look on the news pages of the BBC, I use the top 10 article lists. Pick an article title and come up with an alternative story behind the headline.

So for example from today:

WHO warns swine flu 'unstoppable'

I did not realise the rock band "the Who" were experts in pandemic viruses.

I may post some more as I see them.

Firefox 3.5

Well firefox 3.5 is finally here and to be fair about time too. i was beginning to loose patience with 3.0 as java never seemed to work well.

Having used firefox for the last couple of days it seems slightly faster. There is a nice feature similar to IE where you can add a tab from the tabs which is nice.

So first impressions are definitely good.

Sorry for ... adverts in london on tubes, trains and railway stations

You may like me have been puzzled by a couple of adverts appearing all over London with white text on a back background, with a symbol of Eros in the corner or more precisely the London Evening Standard logo.

The adverts are white text on a black background and are in various different text versions:

Sorry for losing touch
Sorry for being negative
Sorry for taking you for granted
Sorry for being complacent
Sorry for being predictable

The text is so generic that it could relate to a lot of different organisations, I guess the advertising agency are banking on the fact that Londoners will recognise the Evening Standard symbol. They have missed a trick though as I thought it was one of those adverts where you had to look up the text on line. However you do that and you find nothing. It was only when I remembered the symbol was for the Evening Standard that I got the hint, but then even when I went to the Evening Standard website I found nothing about it. Some missed opportunities there, some people will see the adverts and not even connect them to the Evening Standard.

Then there is another set of white text on a red background with a rose in the corner:

Sorry for putting Gordon Brown in Charge
Sorry for the MPs second home allowance
Sorry for the Iraq War
Sorry for Youtube announcements
Sorry for Hazel Blears

Then there is a third set of whit text on a blue / green background with a black horse in the corner:

Sorry for the credit crunch
Sorry for the housing crisis
Sorry for unfair overdraft charges
Sorry for investment banking bonuses
Sorry for a precipitous fall in our share price
Sorry for everything really

OK I might have made the second and third group of adverts up but it might be a good idea, anyone from the labour party or the banking sector (Lloyds was the bank if you didn't catch the colour / logo references) if your reading this or perhaps someone from McCann Erickson who came up with the campaign, feel free to borrow my ideas.

Back to the original Evening Standard adverts, this is unprecedented media territory with a media outlet effectively apologising for the style of reporting that I have long railed against. A newspaper is now suggesting that they might be positive about the news, be less sensationalist and maybe just maybe, more socially responsible. It has been a brave new world for the print media ever since blogging came on the scene. Is this change of heart driven by pure economic necessity or is it a drive to raise editorial or reporting standards and the start of an evolution in the print media?

UK Star Wars Day - May the fourth be with you

Yes soon you can amuse colleagues and friends by greeting them with the traditional greeting on the UK Star Wars day (May 4th)

May the fourth be with you.

Earth Day - 22 April

Today April 22 is Earth Day and in the usual way I find out about these things it was because Google has redesigned their logo for the day.

According to wikipedia earth day is a day to inspire awareness and appreciation for the earth's environment. First observed in 1970 now it hardly breaks the news (at least round here, except google of course).

So lets take a second and think of something beautiful in our environment that we might want to protect for future generations.

For me the humble cherry tree and the humble bumble bee, two things that are natures marvels and without protection, life would be a little bit less bearable. I for one would not want to be old telling my grandchildren that in my youth we had cherry trees with blossom just like confetti and we had bees that went buzz and made honey. If that future comes to pass, as an old man I could not bear to speak of what precious things we took for granted and lost on the tarmac path to progress. In my old age I want to sit under the cherry tree letting the blossom fall against my wrinkled skin as the bees buzz round the granchildren and me. I would want to reflect on the sea change in the first few years of the 21st century that lead to sustainable growth policies which worked in harmony with nature.

Think Tank - New ideas for the 21st Century - Your call up the civil action squad (The Sunday Times)

Charlie Edwards writing for the times suggests it is time for a civil protection volunteer force (CVPF). I have to say the name is quite important and the acronym even more so, I may have to think of something more suitable by the end of the article.

Not a month goes by where there is not an emergency in the UK. In almost every case emergencies threaten to overwhelm local and national resources, whether it be the emergency services or local councils. Most emergencies are dealt with by bringing in all available staff and working long hours. In the worst case with a prolonged disaster or emergency operation this would not work. Most organisation can only deal with an incident over the short term until national or more resources can be brought in. Alternatively due to the stretched resources emergency services sometimes only deal with life threatening emergencies.

According to Charlie this is why politicians from across the political spectrum are calling for a new civil protection force. A network or organisation of volunteers that are prepared for the threats and risks to the population.

I think Charlie has hit the nail right on the head. I work for a government organisation, part of which deals with emergency situations such as the snowstorms in Jan / Feb. I work in HR, while the snow storms were raging and one part of the organisation was struggling to cope with the unfolding crisis I was just struggling to get to work and all I did when I got there was to do the same as I ever do. In fact if there was an even worse crisis, as far as I know there is no official plan to redeploy me to the operational side of the organisation. There is a staff helpline to call in case of emergency but I have no idea what I might be told apart from to report to my nearest local office where I would, I guess, be given a job to do but as I am untrained in any useful task how much use would I actually be?

So my first point is that any public sector organisation which has any kind of an involvement in an emergency situation should have plans to redeploy all their staff to where the operational demand is greatest. In a sense all staff should have a secondary post which they would deploy to in a given emergency. Admittedly you might have a different post for each type of emergency but when the call goes out either in advance or as it happens, on national tv and radio you would know exactly what you would have to do and where to report to. Even if this was done on a voluntary basis it would double the capacity of these organisations to deal with incidents.

What Charlie suggests could double the capacity again with the a team of volunteers specifically trained to deal with emergency situations. The real fourth emergency service. I have been thinking about this and in a sense it is a civilian army. You might have the following platoons or units.

Command and Control: High level command and control officers to direct the volunteer response and liaise with other agencies.

General grunts: Units of extra people who would be an extra pair of hands, they could help out with anything.

Engineering corp: Builders, plumbers, electricians and anyone with any building or labouring experience.

Medical corp: all of the usual doctors, nurses, first aiders etc.

IT corp: Special IT units to repair IT infrastructure

Transportation corp: A vast fleet of lorries and drivers that could be co-opted in an emergency. Also cars, boats, helicopters and planes.

All of the corps could be trained to a basic level such as first aid and basic disaster management perhaps with specific courses for each type of incident. The Command and control and team leaders would receive specialist training courses to prepare them for emergency management. In terms of training compare the corps with the TA, every member would given up say 15 days a year to complete training.

The role of the corps would be simple, protect life and limb, support the emergency services and restore critical infrastructure and supply lines quickly. Some of this would include supervising other volunteer organisations with the command and control units representing and co-coordinating all volunteer help. On this, having just one contact for all volunteer help will make it easier for the emergency services and easier to co-ordinate a volunteer response to incidents.

This would strengthen our response to any incident and increase the safety and security of our communities. Ultimately it would save lives and perhaps make us appreciate the emergency services for the hard jobs they do and perhaps even help us to take responsibility for our own actions in an emergency so that the emergency services can deal with those really in need.

And finally, all we need to do is come up with a name and an acronym, how about the Civil response Emergency Volunteers (CREV). OK may need to work on that one some more.

One last thing, count me in, I will be happy to be part of the command and control unit to help supervise the deployment of CREV in an emergency.

Petrol, major rail projects and poor government policy

Gordon Brown is busy at the G20 summit trying to push a spending agenda to bring the world out of recession.

On the same day Gordon is saying that, there are two minor stories to suggest that he might need to get his own house in order before telling the world what to do. This is not to suggest I don't agree with Gordon's plan to use government spending to boost the economy but that doesn't stop me pointing out what are really some quick wins that have been missed.

After all the role of the voter is to hold the government to account.

Fuel Duty

Today there was a 2p rise in fuel duty which had been planned all the way back in November at the beginning of our darkest months / downturn / credit crunch whatever those media people want to call it today. I fundamentally agree that the price of fuel should reflect the true cost of car use in terms of the environment and emissions.

What I would argue is that the duty rise should have been postponed by six months. This is coming at a time when consumers and businesses are already suffering from a squeeze on their finances. This is just a kick in the teeth.

It is also money that will go straight into the treasury rather than be used on the high street. Think of it as a Vat rate cut in reverse, if you reverse the argument that the government used for the Vat cut then surely putting on the fuel duty raise will take money out of people's pockets and therefore stifle economic growth.

Taxation is often about smoke and mirrors but this is perhaps a step too far.

Major rail projects

A big aspect of the agenda is to invest in capital projects, several of which could be major transportation and railway projects. The good news is that the government nationalised the infrastructure of UK railways some time ago. So all it would have to do is loan money at very favourable rates which could be spent on major projects. There are lots of projects to spend the money on as well, several projects are in the planning stages and the government could bring several forward or just create new projects. The railways will happily make use of any money that the government cares to give it.

So are they doing it? The article would suggest probably not. Jarvis one of the main railway contractors who work on infrastructure projects has just cut 450 jobs citing network rail spending reductions as a trigger. Network rail have delayed projects and reduced spending causing a downturn in business for Jarvis and therefore Jarvis are having to trim there business to suit the new economic climate.

So if the government are not putting money into planned existing capital projects where exactly are they going spending this money they keep on talking about?

Great British Disaster movies

Yesterday I may have perhaps suggested there was no such thing as a genre of British disaster movies, so here are a few suggestions that might make up the Genre.

Great British End of the world / Disaster movies - A list in no specific order of anything in particular

Flood (2007) - Its coming straight for us.

A Freak North Sea super storm threatens London leaving Robert Carlyle to save the day.

28 days later (2002)

Virus sweeps the UK wiping out most of the UK population, this is the story of survivors

The Day of the triffids (1962)

99% of the population go blind and rabid aliens (experimental plants in the book) take advantage and start attacking people.

28 weeks later (2007) - It all begins again.

Robert Carlyle in another disaster movie has survived the original version of the virus from 28 days later (he wasn't in the original film) gets rescued only for the virus to escape yet again.

Shaun of the dead (2004) - It's just one of those days when you're feeling a little...dead.

A now undisputed cult horror comedy, British and best, Hollywood could not write and certainly would not produce a movie like this. No list would be complete without Shaun of the dead.

Population of London catch a virus, die and then return from the dead to eat the living. Shaun and friends must survive and escape.

Conclusion

After that I cant really think of any more British disaster movies and five films hardly makes a genre, however if anyone can think of any more I shall add them to the list, over to you Bobbicus.

Gone in 90 Seconds (New Scientist)

In searching around for something to write an article about I return to an old favourite of "the end of the world". This is one that keeps popping up every so often and is about how susceptible our electricity transmission grid is to solar storms. Its not just the electricity network either, its satellites and communication systems.

Of course there is a bit of movie fake realism to the start of the article, you can imagine movie voice over man coming on and saying:

"It was a time when our best friend became our worst enemy... it was a time when the life giving light became the plague of darkness...mankind at its darkness hour... a future in which people fear the dawn... Solar Storm 2012 coming soon to a screen near you. Certificate 15 with mild violence and on screen nudity."

Any way ... returning to reality and the new scientist article they have a much more sensible scene setter:

"It is midnight on 22 September 2012 and the skies above Manhattan are filled with a flickering curtain of colourful light. Few New Yorkers have seen the aurora this far south and their fascination is short - lived. Within a few seconds, electric bulbs (note from zephyrist: is that as opposed to gas bulbs?) dim and flicker, then become unusually bright for a fleeting moment (Another note from zephyrist: or in one word "blow"). Then all the lights in the state go out. Within 90 seconds the entire eastern half of the US is without power."

Just like in Hollywood the rest of the world doesn't seem to exist as usual the world ends in New York. Seriously can a UK director not come up with an end of the world film set in Bristol or something that isn't cheesy or just a comedy. Why is the British film industry based on period dramas or rom-coms with Hugh Grant or cheap comedies or gritty low budget crime thrillers. Where is the British block buster disaster movie?

Any way back to New Scientist again, rather than just a ramble through a myriad of thoughts about nothing much in particular.

The article goes on to mention 3 big hits about the days and years after the solar storm when the electricity network fails in the US:

4-10 years for the US to recover
72 hours of healthcare remaining
30 days of coal left (although if no power grid why would you need coal for power stations)

A Solar storm will spew out plasma balls from the surface of the sun which will hurtle towards earth and create a massive interference with the earth's magnetic field which in turn induce currents in wires of the electricity grid. Which will in effect overload the system blowing virtually every transformer in the system. With few spares and every transformer needing to be replaced it could take up to 12 months to manufacture and replace them. In the mean time how would we survive without a fully functioning grid network. Every aspect of our lives from fuel, transport, food, healthcare, water and heat depend on the electricity grid. It would be the end of the world as we know it.

Such events have happened before all be it before technology was so embedded in life. In 1859 the Carrrington event disrupted telegraph networks across the globe. In 1989 six million people went without electricity for 9 hours in Quebec during a minor storm.

Solar storms follow a cycle and the next maximum after this current period of calm is expected in 2012 and the question that new scientist asks is are we prepared?

We do have NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) which can give us up to 15 minutes of warning before a solar storm hits, just enough time to minimise the effects of a solar storm on an electricity grid. However, ACE is coming to the end of its life, it becomes less reliable as time goes on and eventually it will fail. With no imminent replacement on the cards our early warning system would be gone and we might loose our last chance to avoid planetary disaster and the end of the first technological age of mankind.

Until then lets face the moonlight and dance...

February and the Customer Service Manual

February

It has to be said I cant remember much of February, I have worked two Saturdays out of the last three weeks, my full time day job, two evenings and for the last week I have had a really rotten cold. It amazed me quite how much snot a human can produce, at its peak I could have been selling two pints of snot a day.

Anyway I can now feel myself returning to normal and hopefully march should not be so bad.

The Customer Service Manual

I was in homebase shopping for light bulbs in my ongoing campaign to replace all the light bulbs in my house for energy efficient bulbs. The campaign is going well, all normal bulbs have been replaced and at homebase I secured replacements for the candle bulbs in my art deco lamp which just leaves some GU10 halogens and some R50 spots to be replaced. All can be replaced its just a question of finding a shop that sells the right bulbs.

Hence my trip to homebase which I have to say if you want a 60W replacement bulb which is a standard energy efficient stick then they have enough to refurbish Buckingham Palace. Everywhere you turned there seemed to be a bottomless 1 m square bucket. If that is repeated in every homebase in the UK then homebase must have billions of them, which given they last ten years is a bit pointless. Have I uncovered the great European Lightbulb mountain, are they unable to turn off the machine that makes them and every shop in the UK is having to hide them instore to avoid a national calamity?

If you want any other kind of bulb they had a few bits and pieces but no GU10 replacements or R50 replacements. Eventually I gave up and headed to the till with two candle bulbs, a plant and a pair of oven gloves.

The Checkout assistant had obviously been on the mandatory customer service course and was well briefed on the Customer Service Manual. The Conversation went as follows:

Checkout: Did you find everything you needed today?
Me: No, I was looking for some lightbulbs but your selection is a bit rubbish at the moment.
Checkout: Yes our selection is a bit rubbish at the moment.

Great, so the trick is to agree with the customer. The manual probably states sympathise or affirm the customer's comment to give them validation.

Although in this case they actually achieved less than nothing. Good Customer Service might have been to ask me what I had been looking for and would I like them to order some for me, or hold some when the next order came in. No, they let a slightly peeved customer walk off into the sunset. I will pop back there another time to see if they have the light bulbs back in stock but chances are they wont and so I will just have to order them off the internet.

If you are trying to improve customer service a half hearted by the book attempt is worse than nothing at all.

Snow watch snow day

Wow for the first time since I moved to Oxfordshire I have been unable to get to work by public transport. It was touch and go yesterday with a bus finally turning up. Today the bus turned up got half way there and then the bus drivers says the service is being suspended due to the heavy snow and it was heavy and they would be turning back so we would not get stranded. I would think I must have been on one of the last running buses in Oxfordshire this morning. Services were suspended at 0945 and I think I got back about 0900.

"Updated 06/02/09 0945

All services except the Oxford Tube have been suspended due to heavy snow."

-Oxfordshire Stagecoach buses website.

So here I am having a snow day, so who knows what I will get upto. Probably more posts later.

What a snow week

Well what a week it has been, finally got a solid three inches of snow last night, lots of good powder snow to wake up to this morning. It was the good fall of snow that was forecast in the linked article. Ok so Oxfordshire only made 3 inches but it was still good and who knows what tonight will bring.

Some useful tips from the AA in that article:

"If you are driving along and you cannot hear your wheels turning that probably means you are on ice."

-AA spokesperson

Of course there are other options that can be considered in such an eventuality if you are not on ice:

"If you are driving along and you cannot hear your wheels turning that probably means all that nagging about driving too fast by your passenger has finally burst your eardrum."

"If you are driving along and you cannot hear your wheels turning that probably means that your car is flying into open space having just driven over a cliff edge obscured by snow."

"If you are driving along and you cannot hear your wheels turning that probably means that the RAF have just airlifted another damn fool that tried to drive to work in 10 inches of snow."

"If you are driving along and you cannot hear your wheels turning that probably means that the hamster has run out of energy."

"If you are driving along and you cannot hear your wheels turning that probably means that you have adapted and installed skies on your car."

"If you are driving along and you cannot hear your wheels turning that probably means that your dreaming of the days when the roads were gritted."

I could go on, but I wont. By the way the standard disclaimer applies, these sounded funny in my head by the time they escaped out onto the internet they may have been the equivalent of a pair of Bermuda shorts in a snow storm. Just not funny or cool.

Then Barry Gromett, forecaster at the Met Office, indicates he needs to go back to college when he suggests:

"We're certainly not out of the woods yet"

I personally wasn't aware I was in a wood. Perhaps he means that next we will get a heavy wood storm with logflakes as big as your fist. Mr Cliche himself goes on to talking about fighting and cooking:

"It looks like the cold air will win the battle and it's a recipe for some more snow. "

The Winston Churchill / Gordon Ramsey approach to weather forecasting. We shall fight snow on the beaches, we shall fight snow on the landing grounds, we shall fight snow in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight snow in the hills; we shall never surrender unless you live in Gloucestershire in which case you surrender when you run out of salt. The Gordon Ramsey recipe approach of seasoning the snow with a bit of salt and some grit for texture just wont work any more. Plus the Gordon Ramsey approach of shouting at and shaming the snow is just a waste of time .

That it for now, I am off to battle the camera for some snow pictures which may be a recipe for blogging success.

More Snow heading our way

From Wednesday night through Thursday and Friday we can expect more heavy snow including a low risk of an exceptionally severe weather event in Oxfordshire, whatever that means. Although indications would suggest that it means between 10-20 cm of snow.

Watch this space. Photos from the early part of the week to follow soon.