Snow Watch 2008

Just as I thought there was no hope Sky news predicts a snow fall.

"Weather forecasters are warning of snow, blizzards and freezing winds for later this week."

Admittedly if you read the article further, for Oxfordshire and most of England it clarifies:

"Across the rest of the UK, scattered snow showers will bring slight to moderate accumulations to some places, although detail is uncertain at this stage"

Past experience has taught us avid snow watchers that such vague predictions can mean anything from no snow whatsoever to a good three inches.

The place to watch is the met office who are quiet at the moment but then again the snow is on the limit of the five day forecast, we cant really be expecting met office early warnings till Wednesday.

The BBC five day forecast for Oxford is suggesting sleet on Friday and then light snow on Saturday.

Watch this space but it would appear we may be under starters orders.

Celebrity meltdowns are we to blame (BBC)

You may have noticed Britney Spears having a meltdown all over the trashy end of the media. The BBC have written an article which basically asks whether we are to blame for this celebrity culture.

The expert they consult suggests that these are modern day fairy tales or morality tales. We can all look at these people and say that is what happens to you if you do X, Y and Z. A kind of internal verification that if you act irresponsibly you don't get a happy ending.

Are we kidding ourselves really? After all lots of people don't end up like Britney but are just as bad. The thing is they don't get caught out.

Are such stories a bitter pill designed to keep everyone else in there place. After all that is essentially what a morality tale is.

"But we also want to know what it's like to live to the point of destruction, to experience the thrill of it without actually having to do it ourselves, and that's where Britney and co come in."

- Phillip Hodson, a fellow of the British Association for Counselling and Psychotherapy.

So basically we know the result and therefore do not need to carry out the experiment. Although there are some things that any normal person could work out from first principles. It is not rocket science is it.

"Britney is a victim of an exploitative industry, a sensationalist media, and a public who seem to enjoy voyeuristically the troubles of superstars and celebrities."

-Marjorie Wallace, Sane

Yes, sadly the public are guilty as charged. It is compulsive car crash compulsive viewing, you have to watch even though you know what is going to happen next.

What's the answer? There is none we need morality stories to show what happens when things go wrong, but does it really need to be headline news? Morality stories don't need to be current affairs, in fact the best stories live longer than the current news day.

Snow Watch 2008

Still no sign of snow, not even on the five day forecast. It seems unseasonably warm for mid winter but who knows what is round the corner.

Snow Watch 2008

Well so far all we have had in Oxfordshire is rain and lots of it. The problem with snow is that no one quite knows when it is going to turn up in the UK until a couple of days before hand.

The first snow in 2007 was on January 22nd, 2 days away but the weather in 2008 is far too mild and wet at the moment so the likelihood over the next week is for rain and not snow.

Its too earlier to say whether the 2008 will be a damp squib season after all this time month next month I may be reporting to you from the middle of a snow drift.

Shrapnel

Ok I have been busy counting out the small change ready to go to the bank. It is known as shrapnel, as it is the small coins that arrive back in your pocket after the big coins have been spent (exploded).

Now in the UK we have penny coins such as 1, 2 and 5. All of these are now pretty useless, they don't buy many things any more, they just weigh your pockets down.

If I were in charge I would probably get rid of 1p and 2p coins, after all there are billions of them just like mine sitting around in money boxes.

The other troublesome denomination is the humble fiver, have you noticed recently that more shops apologise for not having any fiver's in change and give you lots of coins or that the fiver's you do get are past their sell by date.

The reason is not that there is a national shortage, the Bank of England has millions just waiting to be issued, but that retailers and banks don't like the notes, they take up too much space. It may not be long until we see a £5 coin come into general circulation.

Of course even better would be to get rid of cash altogether but that seems just as far off as it has even been. Despite trials with mobile phones, charge up cards, chip and pin cards etc nothing quite seems to be able to replace cash in its entirety.

The other disadvantage to all this shrapnel is that it wears out the pockets on my trousers and even with the iron-on mending patch they are never quite the same.

From Banking to trouser pockets, it is a funny old world.

Littering- For **** sake people

Littering really annoys me, how hard is it for people to either find a nearby bin or take it home with you. There really is no excuse. You wouldn't do it in your own home so why do it in the outside world.

After all I bet you are the first to complain when your town is dirty, conveniently forgetting that it is people like you that made it so dirty in the first place.

The wombles of Wimbledon Common had it right, pick up your litter, reuse and recycle.

I have been reading 'Freakonomics' so I was thinking about the economics of littering.

The reason people litter is because there is effectively no penalty for littering, there is ineffective social pressure to litter and somebody will clear it up anyway.

Of course there is an indirect cost in the taxes we pay to clear up the mess, but again the non-litterer ends up paying just as much as the litterer. If you do the right thing you still cant avoid the cost.

Then how can we get rid of litter without imposing draconian punishments for those who litter. I think it is a question of ring fencing, set up a community litter team made up of people that litter. There will always be people to add to the team and they can then clear up their own mess.

Think about it a cash fine does not work because there is no chance of getting caught but 25 hours of boring litter picking will put you off if you get caught, and put you off if a friend gets caught and tell you about it.

Find me the teenager that would like to do 25 hours boring service like that, once a few got caught littering would so decrease.

Quick Joke

Usual disclaimer: If you don't find it funny, it was funny in my head, not all heads are the same.


Meanwhile on RMS Titanic in the dining room.

Waiter: Iceberg!!!!!

Diner: No, I ordered the mixed leaf salad.


What this joke really needs is a cartoon with the caption "Dave, hated it when the waiter got his order wrong, it really ruined his night."

Snow Watch 2008 - Leg 2 False Alarm

Well at least in Oxfordshire it may have been a false alarm. There were reports of isolated snow fall in Witney, Wallingford and Wheatly but I saw nothing.

The sky looks a bit snow-like but the weather warnings were withdrawn today and nothing seems to be on the horizon.

Leg 2 was indeed a false alarm unless there is some snowfall overnight.

Either way it is still early in the season and I am looking forward to what is shaping up to be an exciting snow watch.

Leg 2: The east wind takes to the field, snow is on the wind

The early start to the snow season continues with leg 2 predicted to start tomorrow a full 21 days earlier than last season's start.

The met office has issues a severe weather warning for 0600 Thursday 3rd January 2008 through to 0600 Friday 4th January 2008.

There is a 20% risk of disruption due to snow over Oxfordshire although some uncertainty over how much snow will fall and again how fast it will turn to rain. Note this is the risk of disruption not the risk of snow, the risk of snow is of course higher.

Watch this space and we will see what tomorrow brings.

The Review of 2007

Well a whole year of articles on the 'One mind, Many Thoughts' blog.

247 articles, many many pages. It all started with a quote

"It is only as we develop others that we permanently succeed"
- Harvey Samuel Firestone

It ended with a personal article about someone I met on a train and how it reminded me of the personal ads.

So what were some of my favourite articles of the year; political, internet links, Snow watch 2007 or comedy sketches.

It is difficult to just pick one article but if I had to pick one, just one where I was on fire, it would have to be one of the ones I wrote myself.

To be fair I am going to have to choose two, one that typifies my strange sense of humour and one that demonstrated my willingness to debate and dissect current affairs issues.

Random Thought: Horses and sheep

UK General Election May 2008 I choose this article because at the time when everyone was saying there would be a November 2007 election I said there wouldn't and with hindsight it turned out I was right. On an additional note May 2008 looks promising but it cannot be judged until nearer to the actual day, it all depends what happens in the first few months of 2008.

That was 2007, who knows what might happen in 200. Like I always say I don't know where I am going but it will be fun finding out.

The people you accidentally meet while travelling

I'm guessing a lot of people will know what I mean when I say sometimes when travelling but train or bus you meet somebody lovely. Usually it is me watching the man and woman who have just met talking like best friends for two hours but today on a First Great Western train from the West to Reading it was me.

One of those moments which you don't expect but are unmissable, possibly one of the moments in life which take your breath away.

I didn't get her phone number, I did see if she wanted a drink and although she said she was tempted she was on her way to a rugby match so had to decline. She flashed me a smile and was off.

While day dreaming my way through the rest of the journey I thought about the fairy tale lonely hearts where people say they saw someone on the train etc.

Specifically I was thinking of the impulse advertisements that have been running in the uk over the last two years. If you don't know what I mean here is one to watch.

So what would be my advert for today's little encounter, how about these two:

• Aspiring dress designer -
  

You had me in stitches.

• Train home girl -

You left tracks in my mind.

Pratchett and Vox Pox (Pops)

Christmas wouldn't be complete without the latest book from Terry Pratchett.

I can only add my best wishes to the many expressed in recent weeks now that it has been anounced the author has Alzheimer's.

Several articles I have written this year have touched about how everyone has a voice in the new media. They have such a strong voice that the non expert man or woman in the street are now more trusted and respected to give an opinion. I have made clear that this imbalance leads us to take advice from people who know little about the sometimes complex situations that occur.

After all if you want your boiler fixed you call a heating engineer. If you want to know about the Northern rock crisis you ask a financial expert.

Rewind a bit, If you want to know about the Northern rock crisis you ask people in a que who are scared and desperate to get there money back (rightly so given the lack of credible support by the government, not exactly helped by media doom mongering).

The best decisions can only be made with the best information, although citizen journalism opens up all the information making it available to every one it becomes harder to find the nuggets of information which are the truth.

In information terms we are potentially turning into lemmings all willing to jump on the latest band wagon. The people who shout the loudest and are given enough air time will be listened to. The new media is all about spin and not substance to the detriment of society as a whole.

Of course this may not be a problem, because experts have an agenda, they mislead the public at least if we all doing it, it is democracy in action.

The problem is citizen journalists also have agendas, unlike experts they have no reputation to loose if they are found to be wrong, they can hide behind different screen names, groups and accounts. If it all goes wrong you will find them blaming someone else, they take no blame or liability they were only expressing what everyone was saying or thinking.

The media in turning us away from the establishment is leading us into a very large, very dark, very scary mine field. You can ask the non expert what happens if you go into a mine field without a map, no need to track down an expert for this one.

Terry Pratchett in his latest book has hit on a very apt description for all these Vox Pops you see in newspapers, news tv and online. (I renamed it Vox Pox because it is more like a disease)

"...Vox Pops - which meant people in the street who didn't know anything told other peole what they knew - and lengthy articles by people who also didn't know anything but could say it very elegantly in 250 words."

Making Money 2007, Terry Pratchett.

Something I could really use right now

You would be forgiven that I might be in desperate search of aspirin to cure the over indulgence of Christmas. You would be mistaken, instead I am looking for something to save me from the repetitive adverts from the likes of B & Q, Debenhams and PC World.

Unless you have been on another planet since Christmas Eve (in which case lucky you) every television advert has been full of the delight of the post Christmas sales. Several companies have gone for the brain washing technique of playing repetitive adverts again, again and again, until the entire advert is seared into the back of your eyes.

It has reached the point where I feel the need to buy something, anything just to make the adverts go away. Surely such adverts are outlawed under the Human Right Acts, surely such repetitive brain washing could be described as a 'cruel and unusual form of torture'.

There would be a market for a widget attached to your TV, which if you scanned a recent receipt from the said company the TV would play soothing pictures of animals at play or some other screen saver type advert instead of the insistent screaming to 'buy, buy, buy' before time runs out.

There has to be a research paper in this somewhere. Even if I ask my readers to name without thinking 3 retail organisations that have a sale starting after Christmas with massive bargains.

It seems to have paid off as well, on the news I heard several retail managers drooling over the fact that they were finding it difficult to pack in any more people into their stores on boxing day.

Anyway with this alternative seasonal message I wish all my readers best wishes of the winter festival and happy new year.

Journeys into the West

It is the time of year when I take a journey from Oxfordshire to Devon via First Great Western.

It is always nice to see what has changed for the better or worse since the last time I let the train take the strain.

The Adelantes are still around although apparently not for much longer. They don't appear to be well liked by travellers but I have always found them to be very comfortable.

From Reading to Exeter St Davids was on a refreshed FGW HST. It is not a bad job the new seats are comfy and not too cramped and the décor has been modernized. The only minor criticism I have is the choice of door colour, it is a bright lurid pink. I personally the old double yellow line colour they used to have. I suspect that the pink doors will date very badly and in a year or so will look very dated.

Exeter St Davids and you would have thought you had stepped back into the 1980's. There were dozens of Class 142 Leyland bus type trains hanging around. These were used after the end of loco hauled services in the 80's but were soon moved out of the region due to excessive wheel wear and track damage.

Having done a bit of research it would appear FGW have bought them back mainly because they are dirt cheap and because they simple don't have anything better. It appears that although Network rail were not impressed with the move they allowed the stock move after certain assurance were put in place by FGW.

Anyway these Class 142 pacers were effectively made from British Leyland bus parts for the cheapest possible costs. To take the suspension as an example they are two large spring on each bogie set. The ride quality is not that great. The interior is also very bus like with large bus seats and bus doors.

All in all a 1980's train which should have been scrapped at the end of the 80's. The ride quality is terrible, there are no interior comforts and by all accounts the reliability is poor as well. Typical first great western go for cheap and ignore the customers. Why the government continues to allow them to treat customers like dirt is unbelievable.

I should also mention that they do not perform well in a crash, imagine crushing a tin can. The report after a crash in 1999 recommended they should be phased out because of this.

Whichever way you look at it these trains should not be running in 2007.

Rumour has it FGW does intend to refurbish the units but other than recover the seats and fill the worst of the holes there is probably not a lot they can do.

Public Sector Pay Reviews

The government has been busy insisting lately that all public sector pay reviews should be kept to as near the 2% target inflation level as possible. The cold hard logic is that because there are so many public sector workers the more money they are given, the greater the inflationary pressure.

The first problem with this is that it doesn't reward workers in the public sector. In fact really given that other inflation figures are higher including the RPI index at 4.0% it probably gives anyone working in the public sector a pay cut. So not only are public sector workers under appreciated with less job security they must now take a pay cut year on year.

The second problem is that it is a very short term knee jerk reaction which does not make economic sense in the long term.

Lets start with a premise which we can all agree on and then apply the New labour policy to see what happens.

Premise:

We want a public sector which rewards and values employees. In doing this we recognise we will not be able to compete on salary but workers will not be penalised simply because they work for the greater good.

We will treat employees as individuals encouraging innovation, recognising that a strong capable workforce will mean a strong Great Britain

New Pay Scheme:

No salary settlement to be higher than lowest rate of inflation.

Implications:

• Differential between Public and Private sector increases in the same way that the differential between house prices and earnings have increased
• Employee motivation decreases, if salary does not change employee become priced out of the economy (eg housing) and so have to seek promotion on a new grade or move to the private sector. Staying in the same post is not a viable option.
  
• Low paid jobs attract poor employees who cant compete for average jobs. There is a tendency for public sector employers to hire or retain poor employees rather than have no one in post.
• Low paid jobs cannot be filled, greater reliance on temps which cost up to X1.5 more.
• Employees who remain in the same post for their career i.e. police officers, paramedics decide to leave the industry.
• Organisations cheat: they award pay rises outside of the annual payment to keep employees effectively negating any economic effect the annual policy has.
• When employee leaves, the job cannot be filled, the salary is then regraded to a salary which the old employee would have liked but was not allowed. So the public sector is willing to pay more for a new person with less experience. The policy does not retain employees.
  
• Public sector will never be world class. You get what you pay for, you pay third rate wages you get third rate service.
• The average employees suffer, these pay settlements don't effect the fat cats only the front line staff.

In reality you may save money by restricting salary growth but you end up paying more in hidden costs and your public sector improvement / reform policies suffer.

Public sector pay as an economic tool is a blunt instrument. There is an argument for making sure that things don't get out of hand by applying a cap or by phasing large pay rises. However, the bottom line is that the policy does not treat people as individuals.

There are much better ways of managing the economy without penalising a section of society who choose to give up private sector wages for the greater good.

Virgin Cross Country franchise demise

On November 11th several operators disappeared from the UK railway network in the latest round of franchise quick shuffle.

One of them was Virgin Cross Country. I have travelled on them quite a few times and they operated some of the busiest routes. They were busy because of Virgin's investment in the franchise with new trains, new tickets / pricing and marketing.

At the start of the franchise commentators said you could not move a Virgin brand on to the railways because the railways are slow, boring and expensive. Things that have never been part of the Virgin brand.

Critics said putting the Virgin brand on track could only ever bring the rest of the Virgin group down.

However, the critics were wrong the Virgin Cross Country brand prospered. It was certainly a hard journey and things could have gone better but it was a success. So with a successful popular operator you would have thought they stood a good chance for keeping the franchise.

Sadly this was not to be and Virgin Cross Country left the scene on November 11, 2007.

I have always felt that brands like Virgin keep the competition honest. Virgin puts quality and value above profit, Virgin stands for customer commitment which cannot be said for a lot of other brands in the transport industry such as First and their terrible franchise First Great Western.

There is a great debate about how franchise holders like FGW are allowed to continue and expand whilst operators like Virgin are always beaten at the post. Like most things it is about politics and money. The government puts cheaper cost above quality of service, they may argue otherwise but in the end they prefer cheap over customer satisfaction.

Police Radio Sketch

I thought I had posted some sketches I was writing about police officers, but trying to find it again I don't think I have. I found one of the bits of papers while having a clean out. It really is amazing what I find when I go through a pile of paper, I am always writing things down and forgetting about them.

The Police Radio Sketch

transcript log number 001234356/07 11.11.07 1205

Control:

For those of you interested there are only two quickie portions left in the canteen.

ZT12: ZT12 to Control, save me one.

RT5: RT5 to control, I outrank ZT12 me first.

ZT14: ZT14 to control, I never turn down a quickie.

SS01 (Sgt):

SS01 to all units, Boys and girls, I believe Mary in Control meant quiche as in cheese and onion. The names of the respondents has been duly noted and I congratulate them for volunteering for the latest round of diversity courses.

ZT14: So no chance of a quickie in the canteen then?

Control:

Urgent assistance required any units available for an immediate quickie in the canteen with ZT14.

[dead air, occasional sniggers from unknown units]

SS01: SS01 to ZT14, Does that answer your question?

SS01: SS01 to Control, Mary I have added your name to the list as well.

Control: Control to SS01, Roger Dodger.

How low can you go?

The barometer has dropped down to 970 mb which is 10 mb past "stormy" which I guess makes it very stormy.

However just now outside it is looking quite peaceful, a bit gloomy but not particularly windy or wet. According to the UK pressure chart I am at the centre of the low.

The barometer is suggesting it will shortly come on to a blow and it is time to batten down the hatches. I hope its not like the other night, the wind was so strong against the window I kept dreaming about trains rushing by.

Virtual Worlds

I have been thinking a bit about virtual worlds and virtual relationships. I got bored with second life, couldn't really get into it. I have always liked chat room and remember the aol uk Pub from some years ago now.

I installed IMVU about a year ago to try it out and really it was terrible, there were no chat rooms and everyone seemed to be under 16. They have done a lot of advertising and I thought I would give it another chance. Now they have public rooms and the population is generally more over 18.

I have found a nice club where you can listen to music and chat.

Anyway IMVU got me thinking, everyone in a virtual world picks an avatar who is kind of their perfect ideal, no picks an ugly avatar.

Some people separate the virtual world from the real world. They talk to people, but they never become real friends, they would never think of meeting them, it is a completely separate world.

Some make friends and fall in love, although relationships start in the virtual world they cross over into the real world.

What about when we have real virtually reality, you might be able to do everything in a virtual world and because it is an ideal world you might not want to be in reality. Will there be parts of virtual reality that stipulate only life realistic avatars are aloud. How about a relationship that only exists in a virtual world because you live thousands of miles apart.

Will the virtual and real world collide, how will we operate in such a connected future. How will we relate to people?

Things I am reminded of when I have had the worst day

Here are a few things that come to mind when I have had the worst day:

It will always look better in the morning after a good night's sleep.

If by Rudyard Kipling

"...Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools..."

Dr Evil from Austin powers:

"... Throw me a frickin' bone here! .."

Finally, I remind myself that I am me and something will hopefully present itself shortly to make life seem that little bit brighter.

I believe in myself and the fact that things have a habit of working out. Sometimes the biggest struggle is just turning up.