Northern Rock watch

Well Northern Rock is still headline news despite nothing more happening. Yawn this story is getting old. The media even the venerable BBC have started interviewing pensioners in the bank queue's who are worried about their pension. Yet, the bank has not collapsed and will not collapse. It is backed by the Bank of England, the government has now gone as far as saying it will guarantee all deposits at Northern Rock.

So why are people still withdrawing money, because the media say so and because everyone else is. Seriously where is the story now. The only story now is 'media seek to undermine the UK banking system'.

The stock market is also looking for the next vulnerable target try to make a profit if another bank hits financial difficulties. The one flaw is that the whole financial system is based on trust. In society we find it difficult to trust any more which can only lead to further instability in the future.

The media and those that do what the media tell them to do or think are part of the problem.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

4. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor dampened, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that ensue.

Notes by Zephyrist:

Basically other people are watching how prepared you are for battle, if they sense weakness they will take advantage.

In business, the same happens, a company going through a rough time will often become the subject of a takeover bid.

Keep your strengths and reserves up and continue fighting.

More McCann stuff

While browsing the times online this article heading caught my eye:

Face it: we need the McCanns to be guilty (The Times)

What it suggests is that we all feel manipulated in this game. That somehow grief has been managed in some sort of branding exercise of PR and spin. It suggests that all summer emotions have been boiling that we have used and because it involved the disappearance of a child we have been unable to criticise for fear of being castigated by society.

It is an interesting article and when I finally wrote about the McCanns I tried to express similar thoughts. However I stopped short of saying I need them to be guilt, indeed I hope that they are innocent just to justify them using every trick in the book to find Madeline.

It still remains that we are still waiting for answers but some sections of the media feel they have been duped and have already convicted the McCanns with no formal evidence. They do this almost every time there is the slightest hint of someone being a suspect. I am amazed that people can still get a fair trial by jury with such damning accusations going on in the press.

The world is still watching, waiting for answers and waiting for Maddie to show up preferably alive although in our hearts we fear the worst.

More Northern Rock stuff

A few more thoughts. Are the people the same people queuing, who when faced with a bank holiday rush to the shops like there is no tomorrow. The same people when faced with extreme weather and told by the police to only travel if necessary and then get themselves into trouble. I am it has to be said a bit of a grumpy old man when people act like sheep. It has always amazed me how completely rational individuals act like nut jobs together.

Let me here you say "Baa!".

Mind you playing devil's advocate the press do have a tendency to mislead everybody. If the weather is extreme they blame the government for not doing something about it and making it safe for everyone. How often do the media mock severe weather warnings from the met office giving it little attention but then complain that no one was warned when it all went wrong.

The bank of England ensures stability in the economy by guaranteeing what could be termed an overdraft facility but the news term it as an emergency loan and start talking about when banks go bankrupt. What can you expect but a belief by the public that there money is at risk.

Of course now that the Northern Rock is the only bank backed by the Bank of England what about the other banks.

News reports suggest that over £1 bn was taken out of Northern Rock accounts yesterday and even more today. Now either the money is being kept under a pillow or the money has been put into another bank. Now the new bank is not guaranteed by the Bank of England, what if it has the same hidden problems or is exposed to the sub prime problems or even in the worst case both problems. What if another bank goes down and the bank of England decides that the new bank isn't as big and wont cause structural economic problems. In a worse case scenario a investor could take money out of Northern rock and put in another bank only to loose the money when the new bank goes down.

That is probably what some commentators have been thinking when they have suggested that Northern Rock is now one of the safest banks in the country.

Exactly how safe is your money now?(The Times -Anatole Kaletsky)

Ever since A level Economics I have respected Anatole Kaletsky, in fact he was essential reading for current economic events. Here is his take on the Northern Rock story:

"Because of the unlimited overdraft facility granted yesterday, Northern Rock’s management is perfectly justified in saying that the company is now a safer place to keep money than any other bank in the world."

-Anatole Kaletsky, The Times

Anatole in the rest of the article succinctly states what the actual problem is or was. The article is written with no hype or scaremongering This is my kind of writing, full of integrity, impartiality and clearly explaining the facts.

Northern Rock hysteria

"Some customers were queuing outside Northern Rock branches"

Why? Its not going to go broke? It has £113 bn in assets. It is supported by the Bank of England. This bank is not going under. However as the Media like a good scare store and the real story is perhaps a bit too economic for most people to understand people are queuing outside banks.

A traditional bank balances its books by lending out to customers what is deposited by customers. However, there is no need to do this as you can lend out more money if your borrow extra money from the money markets. For example you could have a mortgage for 15% interest, the bank can add a batch of mortgages together and borrow at 10% interest. They can make money on the margin.

However, if jitters cause money rates to tighten the cost of borrowing new loans can increase which will threaten the ability of the bank to take in new business or finance old business. In theory the bank could liquidate some of its assets by passing on mortgages but obviously this makes little sense over the long term. So if the bank cannot raise finance on the money markets they can borrow money from the Bank of England as a bank of last resort This is a way of supporting the banking sector through a difficult period. If the bank did not promise a facility then Northern rock could not carry on business as usual and would have to restructure its debt, which is not the same as going out of business.

In this situation it would be likely that there would be major reductions in new business , saving rates would be cut and the mortgage rate would increase. These measures would have a significant effect on the economy, potentially pushing it into recession. Thus the Bank of England always support the industry and the government.

Northern Rock has not yet used the facility but as it is available they can carry on with business as normal. Absolutely no reason to panic. Finance is all about confidence, this loan gives confidence to the Northern Rock and allows them to continue to act normally.

People should also note that the FSA have strict regulations on liquidity which is the ability of a financial institutions to meet its commitments, which basically means having enough capital.

The FSA had this to say about Northern Rock:

"[Northern Rock] exceeds its regulatory capital requirement and has a good quality loan book"

Which translates the Bank has a solid set of accounts, has not got any dodgy loans that are going to fall through and all is fine.

Extreme Warning!! Randomness within - 'Bus Topping'

In one of the James Bond movies they have a character called 'odd job', in a similar vein just call me 'random tangent'.

Whilst sitting on a rather old double decker bus at the back of the lower deck gazing into the middle distance somebody rang the bell. The sign which usually saying 'Bus Stopping' flashed on. The curious thing (OK it was a dull day) was that one of the bright orange upright support bars was blocking my view of the 'S' so what I could actually read is 'Bus topping'.

'Bus topping' almost sounds real. Topping in the UK means killing someone. Was the bus about to be brutally murdered in the street. Was the bus I was on about to go on some brutal bus killing streak plus how exactly do you kill a bus, I have heard of elephant guns but is there such a thing as a bus gun.

Can you hire a killer to do some bus topping. Can you pop into a smoky bar and tell some bloke that a bus 'did you wrong' and you 'want him taught a lesson he wont forget'. Obviously you would have to talk in an east end accent to do the job right just like in all the best movies.

Of course the other reason the sign could say 'bus topping' is that the sign was a question thought on what desert topping you might have with a bus. Do you have custard, ice cream, cream, or chocolate sauce? It certainly had me pondering what kind of topping you could have with a bus on my journey.

Then I woke up and decided I really shouldn't be eating cheese as a midnight snack or I suddenly realised that the rubber seals between me and the engine were faulty and I was beginning to hallucinate.

A psychologist could get a really good Phd out of me.

Buses - How do you eat yours?

The Madeline McCann Case

I am going back into current affairs territory.

I have purposely not written previously about this case. I did not have a lot to say that had not been said elsewhere. When Maddie went missing it was a very tragic tale of a missing child. I did think perhaps that the media campaign seemed to be orchestrated and wondered whether it was so big because she was such a sweet girl from middle class parents. Would the response have been the same for an average girl from council estate parents from Birmingham.

I did not write about those things because I thought it was sour grapes, when anyone goes missing it is a very tragic loss and if all the publicity meant that she was safely returned to her parents then the end would of course justify the means.

The story has evolved in the last few weeks, now the parents are suspect, all sorts of rumours are flying round the net. The search for Maddie has all but vanished.

I want to write about some of the technicalities in the case but find it difficult to do so without thinking that I might appear like some uncaring monster. That is not my intention and I still hope for a happy outcome. So the following is an attempt to separate emotion from reason and look at events in a way that historians might be able to objectively examine some of the facts in many years time.

The first thing is the media hype,for what is often a 24 hour news cycle this story has stayed in the headlines for months. Given that all events did not even happen in this country, the lack of information from the police and the lack of any new information the continuing headlines are unprecedented.

Of course the press have portrayed this as a tragic family ordeal but at this point it could equally be a criminal act or a tragic accident (which could still be a criminal act). However the public through the media are very emotionally involved, a bit like Princess Diana although having some mental health issues was never portrayed as a nutter can Kate McCann ever be portrayed as a murderer. My feeling is that unless a body is found a significant proportion of the public will never believe Maddie was murdered and even if a body does turn up a proportion will never believe that Kate did it even if convicted.

This is at the moment a hypothetical though experiment, there is no body and at the moment it seems that Kate McCann has only been declared a suspect due to a Portuguese law necessity. That is she has to be a suspect to protect her rights and allow the police to ask specific questions. As far as I can make out no evidence has yet been put forward for Kate McCann's involvement in a criminal act. Although there has been a lot of rumours and speculation.

The public also like a good cover up theory. The media were a bit confused in the early days with the reticence of the Portuguese police over the search for Maddie. In Portugal there are restrictions on commenting on current cases which is different from the police culture in Britain. The press in the absence of hard facts took rumours and second hand comments passing it off as news. There are two sides to ever story and when only the McCann's were telling it, how objective were the media in what they reported.

Would the story have been different if it happened in the UK. The Police would have been more open and there would be no unsubtle hints about the lack of trust in the police. No one has come out and said it but I have felt the media were only one step short of saying "Come on of course something funny is going on they are Portuguese."

A lot of people are watching this story with mixed feeling not knowing quite what to believe any more and the outcome may effect people and our society more than they realise.

This story is at a turning point, it is difficult to know what answers we can expect in the next few days. They may not be the ones any one expects.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

3. Again, If the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.

Notes by Zephyrist:

Sun Tzu feels this is so important that he emphasises it again. Long war bad, short war good.

Even in business the quick win is proffered over the long drawn out battle.

Interviews - they are not all the same

Another day of interviews and the usual reminders /pleas. If you have been invited to an interview please research the company and the role. We will be testing your knowledge / understanding of the role and the organisation. After all it is a job interview.

Some more unusual tips from today's interviews. If you take something with you to interview whether it is a folder, bag or just some papers put them down when you get into the interview room anything else and it makes you look nervous and may distract the interviewer.

Hands, the old difficult decision, what to do with your hands. Hand gestures while talking are fine, it suggest enthusiasm, folded arms is a negative signal and be aware of making gestures in your lap. Men or women, do not sit with your legs akimbo making hand gestures in front of your crotch. Best option is to rest your hands in your lap 'demurely' with legs together or crossed.

Finally remember your interviewer is human too, contrary to popular belief we are not out to get you. Pay attention to body language from the interviewer: Do they look interested? Are they glazing over? Are they still writing notes? If your not sure you can ask does that answer your question or if there is anything that you missed out.

As an interviewer I can tell you the interview is not about finding out who is good at interviews but about trying to get the best out of you. Think of yourself as a sponge and the interviewer is trying to ring you out. If they ask follow up questions they are either expecting more or think that you have more to give. Follow up questions are not necessarily bad they mean you are still in with a chance.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardour will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.


Notes by Zephyrist:

A long entrenched battle such as Vietnam and Iraq will sap the armies strength, wear out weapons and become a trap. A quick battle is always best.

In the workplace, a constant battle against a foe will sap moral. 'Quick wins' are important to bolster the team and give it renewed energy and purpose.

A waiting game will only eat up resources, you need to move forward. In a battle on the high street between rival retailers you cannot wait for the enemy to run out of ideas, you have to have better ideas or you will be left behind. Inactivity can only use up resources and may lead to defeat.

I'll Wait for the Next One (J'Attendrai Le Suivant)

I found this on some random page in the web. A bit of culture for my blog, it must be cultural cos it is in French with subtitles. An excellent short film with a neat twist at the end. Enjoy.

'Too few cells' under prison plan (BBC)

Another article about how the prison system is overcrowded, how serious offenders have been realised early and how the government are doing nothing about it.

The Ministry of Justice (which sounds like a ministry from some combination world of Harry Potter and Batman) latest figures suggest that even under the most optimistic scenario they will still be struggling for spaces.

In the worst case scenario an estimated 20,000 place will be needed by 2012. Seriously is it not time to start building more prisons. Feel free to work on rehabilitation and training etc but as a short term measure we need a few more prisons.

I should point out that some prison wings are going to be re-opened, Dartmoor prison has applied to re-open a closed wing.

Although releasing prisoners early seems like a good idea, it should only be a short term measure as the Judge gave them a sentence which they should serve. Such wanton disregard for the criminal justice system can only make the situation worse, habitual criminals will see the system as a soft touch.

Blogs Of Note: Javajive - Photography from indonesia

I am still using 'stumbleupon' to find interesting photography sites. I came across this great Brandon Hoover's photography blog, not only are the photos top quality but the subjects of people and places of Indonesia is fascinating.

The blog is well organised, you can either read it like a blog or use the tags to get at separate subjects. He also has galleries on smug mug and flickr.

You can spend a lot of time here looking at the pictures.

Phtographs on a summers day

I took a few photos on the way home from a friends on a clear summer Sunday morning.











A typical English country church.








A pastel brick wall.











A curving brick wall down a lane.












New bricks, old bricks, all the same.



A soaring cloud bird.





The stone face.

The Daily Mail experiment (Guardian)

If you have read my opinions on some sections of the UK media, you know that I think some newspapers are rather jaded and give a completely un-balanced view of the world.

You no longer have to take my world for it, Nick Angel for the Guardian spent one month reading only the Daily Mail for his news.

I think the introductory text says it all:

"A month spent reading the nation's leading mid-market newspaper took me into a terrifying, depressing world, filled with suspicion."

-Nick Angel, The Guardian. August 20th 2007.

The good thing about modern society is that no one gets their news from just one source, so there is a bit of balance in the system. However humans have an uncanny trait of only accepting information which matches their own beliefs / standards. So Daily mail readers only get their news from daily mail like sources.

In other words there really are people out in the world that share the view of the Daily Mail. Sometimes I wonder whether there is any point in anything other than local news. How relevant is crime in a different area to you. A constant diet of crime news leads people to perceive that crime is actually worse than it is. After all not every teenager is a hoodie wearing, knife wielding psychopath.

People say the truth is out there, but first you have to work out what the truth is. Can actual news be separated from opinion and bias.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

II Waging War

1. SunT zu said: In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, as many heavy chariots and a hundred thousand mail clad soldiers, with provision enough to carry them a thousand [miles], the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men.

Notes by Zephyrist:

At today's prices this works out at $140,000 a day which even for a primitive army is below the actual cost. So the comparison doesn't hold true today.

Sun Tzu was actually reminding us that not only are there in the field costs but there are basic maintenance and administrative costs. These can be important as the fighting men themselves. Modern armies don't always remember this. They get the men in the field but try to skimp on equipment and maintenance.

The same could be said for a lot of companies, it is modern to cut back-office costs and cut down on expenses and entertaining. Sun Tzu sees this area of business just as important as the fighting front. Without support and investment in the support functions the fighting or customer facing units can not operate effectively.

For an HR Analogy, invest in your recruitment and HR you can get the right people for job. Streamline processes and red tape and the front line staff can concentrate on their job. For every amount of time you ask someone to fill a form in ask is it an effective use of their time, if it isn't loose the form.

Sun Tzu writes almost as if he is justifying to a minister or king how much an army costs. Perhaps a king has questioned why glue or armor repairs have cost so much. Sun Tzu has basically replied by saying if you want a 100,000 men on the field of battle this is how much it costs. I can spend less but I don't guarantee victory.

Happy Birthday Blogger

Well yesterday the 23 August 2007 was bloggers eighth birthday and today this is post number 200 for my humble blog.

Two milestones in two days, congratulations all round.

Movies teach us that any celebration of a successful job involving lot of standing up, clapping whopping and mass hugging. Does that really happen, or does everyone just relax and thank whatever deity they worship and head for the pub / home / any other similar place.

Travian - be a village leaader in the time of the roman empire

I have discovered a new on-line strategy game which I have been playing around with.

Travian is a free browser based game where you start off as a leader of a small village. You then build up your resources by upgrading your production of the four key resources clay, wood, wheat and iron.

When you have a stronger village you can then get into trading, defence, attack, joining an alliance or founding new villages etc.

It is a game that needs patience as only a few moves can be made each day especially during the initial growth phase although it is good to see your village get bigger over time. This slowness can be an advantage as you are never going to spend hours a day with your village although for maximum growth you would need to tinker every few hours. Having said that you don't need to, I just go in once a day for ten minutes.

I started off as a Roman, apparently the easiest tribe to start. Each tribe has specific bonuses and specialisms. At the end of the first week I am still growing my resources to allow me to do other things but it certainly looks like a good game.

One of the big features is alliances, when you build an embassy you can join an alliance where you can co-ordinate defence, attack or just share resources. Here you can also sort out wars and diplomatic squabbles. I haven't got this far yet but it certainly sounds interesting.

The interface is good too, simple with colourful graphics, it is quite easy to pick up. There are also forums, FAQ's and guides to help you along the way if you get stuck or want to find out more about something.

Photographer: David Burdeny

I find photography fascinating, one particular favourite area is landscape images and even better if it has the sea or coast as the subject.

Looking at a really good photograph is like flipping a switch in the brain which turns on 10,000 v of electricity directly into the brain.

David Burdeny does just that, his photographs are simply breathtaking. The elegance and simplicity with the atmospheric black and white images are just simply stunning.

I would beg to be able to capture images in this way, these photographs make me want to live by the sea for a year trying to get just one image half as good as his.

If you want more images and who would not go to his website, david budeney photgraphic works for more coast shots as well as a study of landscaped in colour motion.

The Art of War by Sun Tzu

I Laying plans Summary

Notes by Zephyrist:

From Section 1 laying plans, we have learnt that the plan is everything. A good plan will go a long way along the road to victory, no planning will lead to failure.

“Failures don't plan to fail; they fail to plan”

-Harvey Mackay, US Columnist and businessman

Sun Tzu has talked us through the analysis of comparing rulers, generals and armies deciding who has the strength in one factor above the other.

All battles are built upon deception, you must convince the enemy you are weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak. Look for the points of weakness and exploit them in the enemy. For your points of weakness hide them and look weak where you are strong.

Plans should be divulged to as few people as possible, although false plans may be leaked to confuse the enemy.

Although Sun Tzu is talking about battles the reason he has been so popular through the ages is that his ideas can be applied to every day life. Even family holidays need planning with military precision.

Next week Section 2: Waging War