Osborne stands by economy warning (BBC)

Apparently George believes it is his job to tell everyone the truth about the economy.

George ' Mass Hysteria' Osbourne is basically going around doing a private Frazer from Dad's Army, "We are all doomed".

George, this is not helpful and not clever so frankly shut up. In essence unless you have some new ideas or a solution just keep quiet. Leave the people with some brains to continue this conversation and get on with sorting out the economy rather than scaremongering.

"The reason why sterling has fallen by more than 25% is because they don't believe Gordon Brown when he says Britain is better prepared than other economies..."

-George ' Mass Hysteria' Osbourne

I admit it took me a while to remember why the value of a currency drops, the reason is that when interests rates decrease investors withdraw funds from sterling and head for other countries with higher interest rates. The whole premise of capitalism is that the money chases profit, therefore less profit in the UK then the money goes elsewhere. It is not really a judgement on Gordon Brown, it is the equal and opposite reaction from dropping interest rates.

Obviously if as a politician you say that you cant get votes, our political system seems sometimes to be based on having equal and opposite opinions. Getting cross party agreement is the stuff of myth and legend.

Its also interesting to note that the conservative party itself don't have faith in Osbourne's economic skills having drafted in his predecessor to help with some of the fine detail of party policy. Big vote of confidence for poor George there.

The end of the world as we know it..

OK may be not quite the end of the world but the end intellectual debate and the dumbing down of the English language.

I am designing some new assessment materials at work based around communication skills, part of the folio is some group discussions. These group discussions have now gone out to consultation with our partner groups and I am collating the feedback.

One topic included the world "eradicate", one comment has suggested that we use the word "remove" instead, as people may not understand the word "eradicate".

I am all in favour of not over complicating things, I started nodding and thinking what a good piece of advice that was. Then I had one of those record screeching moments where the needle is taken off the record scratchily (that reference probably lost 90% of the audience but I shall struggle on, if you are not sure what a record is try wikipedia). If someone doesn't know a word it is not cruel or unfair to use it or a reason for me to change it, that is a reason for someone to pick up a dictionary or use the internet to look up the meaning.

To me the two words have distinctly different meanings so I feel it is important to use eradicate. The English language is currently rich with many great words for all occassions, we should not reduce it to a language where there is only one word for everything. What next, get rid of blue and call it light black, where do we stop, eradicate is a good word and I say it stays.

"Say no to the eradication of eradication"

My point is that everyone, if they dont know something should take the opportunity to learn and look it up. It should never be that if people dont know something its the other persons fault for not using the right word. Individuals need to take responsibility, develop themselves and protect the richness of the english language.

Another comment was that I cant use a discussion topic about insurance because some people might not understand the concept. Well if they dont that should form part of the discussion and if they dont, why dont they? Insurance is virtually fundamental to several aspects of life and surely it is a fairly simple concept. Even if you cant explain how insurance works you know about premiums, claims and have a vague knowledge of risk. Again we shouldnt avoid discussing things because people might not know, the things people don't know are the exact things we should be discussing. Humanities job is to learn and develop, there is nothing wrong with ignorance if you do something about it, if you ignore it and hope it goes away then the only person you are failing is yourself.

End of moan, join me next week when I tell you about the new course I have been on, "Effective moaning for professionals". Apparently it even comes with roleplays.

Twas the night before the American Election result

Twas the night before the American election and we the people of the world stand at a fork in the road. One way lies more of the same, the other lies the beacon of change, of hope and the dream that no one dared to dream.

One man tomorrow will be the president, one man will hold the future of millions of people in his hands, one man who has the potential to change the world beyond all recognition will, hopefully, take power.

Barack Obama is the one man to step forward, the one man to step up to the plate and to swing for all his worth. As the crowd clamber to their feet, they wait watching to see where the ball will land.

Today we stand on the precipice of history, tomorrow we fly or fall.

The future may start tomorrow, the future dreamed by Barack Obama and shared by the electorate he spoke to and who have heard his words.

Eagle

The eagle is over the yard arm. I repeat. The eagle is over the yard arm.

Early blast of Arctic air

It was a cold cold day today with weather flowing all the way down the UK straight from the Arctic.

What started as a subtle hint of sleet in the cold rain has turned to solid authenticated winter shows with the non vertical rain drops which can only be described as wet snow.

Nothing much to speak of but the rain is definitely a mix of rain/sleet and the odd bit of snow.

A very early start to the season with a snow flake before the end of October. Does this mean a cold snow filled season or just a normal winter?

Who knows what the winter will hold but as usual it will be watched with anticipation from Northern Oxfordshire, home of the Snow Watch.

Here's to a snowy season of 2008/09.

I have been thinking...

I have been thinking about one thing that will change the world. I have a spare £1 in my pocket and know that there are 60 million other people in the UK that have a spare £1.

Effectively then I have £60 million to make a small change to make the world a better place. I have £60 million because while some will give none a lot of people will give more.

So one small gesture to create a big gesture, to change the world.

If you expand that premise to the world there are 6.7 billion people so £6.7 billion to make an even bigger gesture.

The question is what could you invest £6.7 billion in, to really fundamentally change the world for the better for everyone.

£1 to change the world 6 billion reasons to do it.

Notes:

There is a part of me that wants to write in a post ironic modernism type of way after the above article "Zephyrist Aged 10 and a half". There is a certain idealistic naivety to the article that the entire population of the world could unite to make one change when often charities struggle to get just a few people to donate money.

There is another part of me that says the only people that have ever changed the world are the idealistic dreamers. They dare to dream the impossible, somehow and no one quite knows how, it becomes possible.

Leadership is about creating new realities, drawing people in and breaking down barriers. Great leaders dream both the dream and of how to make it a reality.

One thing I do know is that if you never think of something or never say it out loud you have strangled the dream at birth.

The ten and a half reference harks back to childhood where nothing is impossible, all the bad things don't exist and we can do anything if only we set our minds to it. Growing up is about finding out there are barriers whether in skill or talent or just what seems like luck. However much we want something sometimes it just wont happen.

At times like that it is easier to get cynical and look negatively at things. There is no point applying for that job, I wont even get an interview and they are probably not looking for someone like me. However, if you don't try, how do you really know you will fail. Even if you cant imagine the possibilities, all of them are out there.

Maybe I can't change the world all by myself but maybe if I keep generating ideas someone will pop along, pick it up and run with it.

Our only limitations are the limitations we impose on ourselves.

Palin, republicans, other animals and national forests (New Scientist)

In this weeks New Scientist two short news articles caught my eye.

"Alaska's beluga whales should be keeping their flippers crossed that Sarah Palin won't make it to the White House."

Apparently Sarah is not the whales best friend, she has made strenuous efforts to ensure that the beluga whales in the Cook Inlet in Alaska were not given enhanced protection and put on the endangered species list. She originally tried to claim there wasn't enough evidence to put them on the list but only managed to delay the listing for 6 months while a recount took place.

This was following on from the outrage she expressed when the polar bear was put on the endangered list. Alaska has even unsuccessfully sued for loss of revenue from oil and gas development resulting from putting the polar bear list.

So this year's Cruella De Vil 2008 award for a person most likely to have a stone heart when it comes to protecting the environment and clearly putting financial benefits above environmental concerns goes to Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin. Give it up for the wicked witch of the north!

In the interests of political balance Sarah may feel that the local economy of Alaska which is heavily dependant on the oil and gas industry should not be put last below animal welfare. Maybe she feels that in Alaska the rights of humans should be put first.

The other reason not to vote republican is because thanks to George Bush "roadless" areas of national forest totalling 230,000 square kilometres which is an area virtually the size of the UK is under threat from development such as phosphate mining or logging.

So if you care for the environment, really, don't even bother thinking about voting for Mcain and Palin.

The Sustainable Growth Development Party (SGDP)

The 22 point manifesto for a sustainable future.

1. We will only consume natural resources at a scientifically determined sustainable level.
2. We will only emit toxic/ waste gasses where necessary within predetermined sustainable levels.
3. Car use will be cut by 10% years down to sustainable levels.
4. Public transport will be increased by 15% each year.
5. Air use will be cut by 10% per year until a sustainable level is reached.
6. Income tax will be abolished.
7. Taxes will be based on inputs and outputs to the environment.i.e consumption of raw materials = inputs and emissions into environment = outputs.
8. Social projects for the poor will be funded by the tax system.
9. Inflation to remain below 1%
   
10. All Tax havens to be abolished.
11. Upper limit for income inequality. 1 to 30 across all sectors.
12. Banking system to have high capital / liquidity balances
13. Debt to be balanced by deposits.
14. More jobs in sustainable development.
15. More jobs in repair, recycling and maintenance.
    
16. More sustainable small businesses.
17. Reduced working week for all to 30 hours
18. Free trade between sustainable development countries.
19. Restricted trade with outsiders.
20. Restricted immigration and birth rate, population to be maintained at sustainable levels
21. Local goods for local shops in local markets.
22. New standards for product life, encourage long lasting products across all sectors.

This manifesto has been loosely derived from an article in New Scientist, 18 October 2008, "How we kicked our addiction to growth" pp 52-53.

It is very much rough thoughts and a starting point for further discussion. I may even pick a few points to expand on later, maybe development some specific policies for certain sectors such as transport.

Luckily I hit on a good name SGDP is a bit like GDP - gross domestic product. With a good name you can go places.

The Folly of Growth (New Scientist)

What I love about New Scientist is that they are not just a pure science magazine. With the recent credit crunch they ran a special issue on "The Folly of Growth - How to stop the economy killing the earth".

You see Capitalism is based on a false premise, that we must have continuous growth. The problem with that is with finite resources you cant have continuous growth as at some point resources run out, prices rise and you get shrinkage. This is the fundamental nature of boom and boost, the credit crunch and everything else that is wrong with the economy at the moment.

It means Gordon Brown is wrong, without infinite resources we cant beat the boom and bust cycle. All because of this one simple premise, which everyone can quite clearly see is wrong but no one wants to admit it because to do so would be to admit that capitalism which has worked for 200 years no longer works. A modern tale of the emperors new clothes.

It would suggest that Capitalism is just as flawed as Communism, in fact you could argue that it is more flawed than Communism as to solve the current credit crisis the governments had to move towards communism by part nationalising the banks and increasing government control of the banking system.

Of course with finite resources the logical economic system would be one that is based on efficient use of resources or more precisely sustainable development. So why do we not have a sustainable or steady-state economy already?

Well,such an economy would mean we would have to live within our own means, no more large debts, greatly reduced oil based travel, less hours worked, the redistribution of wealth from the poor, no benefits to saving and investing, and finally greater control over all aspects of our lives.

The transition period would be much harder as well, just think if tomorrow you were told you could no longer own a car, you had restrictions on the electronics you could buy and only 200 air miles for the year for your holidays. Ouch!

Of course there would be an upside, the end of consumerism, the end of boom and bust, less work, less stress, less inequality, living in harmony with nature rather than against it, better public transport, less pollution, stable prices, no income tax (tax would be on inputs and outputs to the environment), less road congestion, the end of global warming, the end of inflation, no more credit crunch, no more tax havens for the rich, stable population and much much more.

So lets look to the sustainable future and lets hope for the better tomorrow becoming reality.

I have to say all the articles in the new scientist special edition were great and are well worth reading, I may even post some more articles about sustainable development soon.

Credit Crunch Jokes (BBC)

This was a little nugget from the BBC. Amidst all the heavy news stories someone has collected all the jokes that readers have emailed in about the credit crunch.

My particular favourite is:

"Masked man holding a bank cashier up with a gun. Says: 'I don't want any money - I just want you to start lending to each other...
David, Cambridge, UK"

Post ironic modernism

I have invented a new art form, it is called post ironic modernism. I still have not quite worked out what it actually is or what constitutes post ironic modernism but I have a few examples.

Example 1 - Well Bupa, you did ask.


Example 2 - The alternative start to Love Actually, Debate Actually (if it helps imagine Hugh Grant saying it in the same style)

Whenever I get gloomy with the state of the world I think about the "Have your say" pages at the BBC news site. General opinion is starting to make out we live in a world of nutters and madness but I don't see that. It seems to me that the population of the UK is some 60 million people and even the most popular posts are recommended by only 600 people which suggests that intelligent debate does still go on, just not on the internet. Often its not particularly dignified or newsworthy but its always there. Fathers and sons, mothers and daughters, husbands and wives, boyfriends, girlfriends, old friends. When the stock markets were crashing as far as I know none of the phone calls from the people in the banks were messages of hate or revenge, they were message of thought and hope. If you look for it I've got a sneaky feeling you'll find that intellectual debate actually is all around

A solid prudent plan that I heartly recommend to the house

This is a good plan and an even better plan than the American plan. This plan doesn't buy so called 'toxic debt' and make it a government and therefore taxpayer liability. This plan is about investing in the banking industry and potentially even turning a profit in the coming years when the crisis lessons.

This plan should solve the immediate crisis and though it is likely we will suffer a recession it is likely to be shorter and shallower because of the positive action the government has taken. For all the whiners out there who say we shouldn't bail out the fat cats they should bear in mind that a broken banking system will lead to deep recession or a complete collapse in the economy. At its best it will mean high unemployment and high inflation, at its worst it could lead to hyper inflation, housing crashes and the extreme devaluation of the pound. Doing nothing was never an option.

A lot of people are saying how it is costing the taxpayer over £2000 per person. Well it actually isn't, the government will borrow the money either from existing reserves, or by selling government bonds etc which are always in demand. They could even cut spending to compensate or in the worst case the £2000 could be reclaimed off people via the tax system over the next ten years.

Plus don't forget tax can be raised from businesses too or that higher rate tax payers could be made to pay more, £2000 per person is literally only the total cost divided by the number of taxpayers. It is another virtually meaningless statistic.

The government is used to sudden demands on capital reserves, natural disasters cause immediate demands. You may find that some of the £500 bn has already been budgeted for in the budget forecasts, it would be bad financial planning by the government if they had not allowed for contigecy funding.

If the worst came to the absolute worst then the government could just print more money or even sell off gold reserves, although both could cause inflation and the devaluation of the pound.

The other good thing is that we are not kissing goodbye to the £500 bn, some £50 bn of the money will buy banking stock as preference shares which means the government will own part of the banks and will get any profit made in preference to other share holders. There is quite a reasonable possibility of the government making a profit, after all when have you ever know a bank like Lloyds making a loss even in these crazy times.

Some of the money, £250 bn is only available as guarantees for bank loans so that will only have to be handed over if a bank defaults on a loan, I think within the next three years and again as everyone keeps saying most of the banks are perfectly well capitalised and unlikely to default on reasonable loan terms, they just cant cope with the crazy loan rates they are being offered at the moment so cant re-finance their debt.

The short term loans, £200 bn, should by and large be repaid with interest. So in all cases there is a reasonable chance we will get the entire £500 bn back plus interest. Even if we don't it is completely unlikely that we will loose any kind of large amount. Even in the absolute worst case once the money comes back into the government it would be hard to imagine any scenario where the government had lost more than £50 bn. This is simply because none of the UK banks are at risk any more. All of the banks with the heavy mortgage exposure have either been nationalised or taken over. All the remaining banks are well capitalsed with a good balance sheet and assest book.

Of course the stock exchange disagrees but this may be simply because the traders are in a blind panic. Once the dust settles and they run out of steam things should start to return to normal. Of course one of the reasons the market is falling is because a lot of people are making money off selling and buyers are too scared to re - enter the market in any great numbers. Once the buyers feel the market has bottomed out they should buy again. In all likelihood if we have a couple of days of peace the volumes traded will decrease, the sellers wills stop selling and the buyers will re - enter.

The icing on the cake if you like is that any bank signing up for this money will have to sign up to an FSA code of practice of executive dividend, pay and bonus payments. The final element of structural reform which can only strengthen the banking system and the economy in the future.

In conclusion, Mr speaker this is a excellent plan and I heartily recommend it to the house.

Project 10 to the 100th

I saw this ages ago on the google home page, Google are running a competition, in their words:

"Project 10¹⁰⁰ is a call for ideas to change the world by helping as many people as possible."

I have entered one entitled:

"Help local people develop local sustainable energy projects through local resident run co-operatives."

You never know, one day it might just change the world.

If you have a world changing idea why not swing by google and submit it.

House votes down bail-out package (BBC)

Houston, we have a problem. Its not really one of those small problems its a huge global catastrophe.

The business news was fairly scary at the moment but at least there was vague hope and then a story like this gets out. This is why the Bank of England is independent from politicians. Sometimes some things are too important to get right to allow for political positioning and point scoring.

I think it would be fair to say that we are witnessing the beginnings of a global economic meltdown. I really, really hope that we are not about to go into an economic dark ages but with stories like this the outlook is looking very black.

President Bush has two choices, try and amend the plan and resubmit it or go back to the drawing board. Either way he better do it quick cos things are turning bad fast.

On the other hand here in the UK we are doing ok, with another small bank nationalised most of the structural changes in UK banks should be finalised. Plus the politicians are on holiday so they cant really meddle. However, given that the world economy is directly linked to the American economy all eyes are across the pond waiting with bated breath for someone, anyone to come up with a rescue plan.

Has anyone perhaps suggested to the UK MP's that at a time like this it might be useful if they could get back to work?

Playlet: Single for Bicester Town

Audrey Hepburn style girl meets cynic in very southern belle type playlet based in Oxford train station.

Intro: girl rushes across concourse towards the ticket window bumps into man staring up at the departures board.

Dave: Woa there, go steady.
Audrey: sorry more haste less speed, sorry excuse me..
Dave: certainly an interesting first impression.
Dave: I'm Dave and you are?
Audrey: Many things, but today I am Audrey.
Dave:Only today?
Audrey: Maybe.
Dave: I find you intriguing would you like to discuss this over coffee.
Audrey: Why not?
Dave: I will take that as a yes then.
Audrey: might as well, lead on Macduff.
Dave: Macduff?
Audrey: The scottish play.
Dave: Ahhh.

Both sit with coffee.

Dave: What is time?
Audrey: Why it is the tick following tock that shuffles us from birth through to the grave.
Dave: I'm sorry I think you misheard me, What is the time?
Audrey: time is immaterial, I simply don't have any.
Dave: Ermm OK.
[pause while sipping drinks]
Audrey: Are you sure I misheard you.
Dave: I think so.
Audrey: You see... I think you are just afraid of discussing something that reminds you of impending death.
Dave: I'm sorry I did not realise I was going to die this morning.
Audrey: Oh your probably not going to die this morning.
Dave: Only probably, well I can probably relax then, at least in a train station I am unlikely to be run over by a bus.
Audrey: True but only probably, one can not take any chances, one must be vigilant for the metaphorical bus at any time.
Dave: I have enough trouble with avoiding physical buses to be worrying about metaphorical buses.
Audrey: I can see that might be the case.
[Both pause to ponder]
Dave: It is a funny thing fate.
Audrey: I have never seen fate as being much of a comedian.
Dave: Was it fate that I met you today, and fate that you have no time.
Audrey: No, it is something much simpler than fate, it is the vagaries of a train timetable.
Dave: Yes it must be mildly annoying that trains don't leave the station when you want to.
Audrey: Mildly.
Dave: Still the company for coffee is quite good.
Audrey: Mildly.
[Pause while both sip]
Audrey: Are you scared of an impending death?
Dave: No, it is just that impending sounds so immediate.
Audrey: Oh its not, maybe impending was a poor word, maybe ultimate death would be more appropriate.
Dave: Maybe, although it sounds rather grand for what death actually is.
Audrey: Fate and death you are a very curious man.
Dave: You haven't been on a second date with me, then its destiny and Serendipity.
Audrey: My train goes in two minutes and look at that queue, I'll never make it.
Dave: You can buy a ticket at the barrier.
Audrey: I will have to rush..
Dave: wait...tell me if you are single.
[Audrey turns and smiles]
Audrey: Single for Bicester Town please.
Dave: Single...[Audrey turns and nods]... make that two singles.
Audrey: Two singles make a couple.
Dave: Only time, serendipity, fate and destiny will tell.
Audrey: Indeed.

Warning sounded on web's future (BBC)

Well it would appear that the BBC has finally worked out what the rest of us already know, you can't believe everything you read on the internet.

Sir Tim Berners-Lee (No I don't know who he is either, but with a "sir" in front of his name I am busy bowing down and tugging my forelock) has come up with the idea of a "trustworthiness" labelling system for websites.

Sir Tim has set up the WWWF, and to be fair trustworthiness is just one of his aims. He wants to make the web more accessible not just to those of us in the West. Sir Tim wants to expand the web beyond just text to reach those through the web who can't read or write. He also wants to increase mobile web browsing and the usage in Africa . Basically he wants to bring the web to the world regardless of wealth, ability, status and location.

A very noble endeavour.

My take on it is that we need to separate opinion from fact and make some attempt at peer review or evidence based labelling. If an article has credible supporting evidence or is more factual than opinionated then it gets a higher rating. Perhaps any news site could have assessors who are trained and vetted for suitability and experience, who can then rate articles.

The web is a very interesting place with every view represented but off the beaten track away from the main brands such as the BBC and CNN how do you know who to trust especially on the basis of one article. Trust can be easily built on a series of articles but on one short article it is more difficult to judge. This is where bloggers have their niche, they can earn trust and reliability from their readership but how many bloggers have internal standards or a code of practice.

The garlic bread older than me

I had a lovely M & S garlic and parsley baguette last night and while searching for the heating instructions noticed that it was:



Which would make it firstly a very well preserved baguette suitable for decades long space missions and secondly means that the baguette has been around several years longer than me.

Of course it is more likely just to be a product code or factory code and someone did not think through the unintended consequences of the layout of the packaging.

Love Actually is all around

I recently watched Love Actually again on DVD. Its a good film but what I like the best is the intro sequence.

Sometimes I take a moment when travelling through an airport or train station and look around to see the love that is shown in the intro sequence, sometimes its even me getting the love.

Just once I would like the words to come over the tannoy just so everyone can have a look round and see the love, but for now it remains on DVD.

"Whenever I get gloomy with the state of the world I think about the arrivals gate at Heathrow airport. General opinion is starting to make out we live in a world of hatred and greed but I don't see that. It seems to me that love is everywhere. Often its not particularly dignified or newsworthy but its always there. Fathers and sons, mothers and daughters, husbands and wives, boyfriends, girlfriends, old friends. When the planes hit the twin towers as far as I know none of the phone calls from the people on board were messages of hate or revenge, they were all messages of love. If you look for it I've got a sneaky feeling you'll find that love actually is all around."

- Hugh Grant, Love Actually intro sequence

From West Wing to the real thing (The Guardian)

For the last few days I have felt that Barack Obama reminded me of someone and then it hit me there is a link back to the Presidential Campaign of Matthew Santos in "The West Wing".

It was the plain speaking approach of Obama that finally reminded me of Santos. Truth often follows fiction but according to the linked article fiction followed truth only for truth to follow on again, if you see what I mean.

My question will be, in the forth coming election will the "West Wing" story line have subconsciously prepared American voters to vote Obama. Will the fact that in the show Santos won prepare voters for a Obama victory, have the lines between the show, which was almost like a documentary at times, and reality somehow blurred.

New Google Chrome

So google have decided to enter into the browser wars. To be fair it was only a matter of time.

According to reports they have already captured 1% of the browser market share, I suspect due to the prominence of the download link on the google search page and that they are a reasonably trusted brand in the mainstream.

I for one wont be downloading, I like firefox and I love the culture and ethos behind it. I firmly believe in open source software and think it is about the true spirit of the internet. I do not want to get all my services from one provider especially one that seems to collect vast amount of personal data and web browsing habits for research purposes.

Google are good but I think in the same way we don't get internet explorer from Microsoft will be the same reason we don't get Chrome from Google. Firefox users like a bit of independence from any big monolithic company.

However competition is always a good thing and I would guess that some or all of the innovative new features in chrome will be built into the next version of firefox. Although in web browsing terms what would be really innovative these days. There are plenty of incremental evolutionary improvements but nothing recent has been completely revolutionary.